The Cougars won't be favored against Baylor, but can their gritty style of play push them past the Bears?
Ahead of Saturday’s men’s Final Four, we'll be previewing each of No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 1 Baylor, No. 2 Houston and No. 11 UCLA this week. First up is Houston, a program in search of its first national championship and making its first Final Four appearance since 1984. Here's everything you need to know about the AAC team coached by Kelvin Sampson.
How It Got Here
Much has already been made about Houston’s path to the Final Four. Chaos in the Midwest region parted the seas for the Cougars, which became the first team in tournament history to reach the Final Four by beating four double-digit seeds.
After blowing out Cleveland State by 31 points to open the tournament, Houston got a much stiffer test from Rutgers. The Cougars trailed by nine with under five minutes to go in that one before making their push, finishing the game on a 14–2 run to steal the win and advance. Houston had far less trouble in the tournament’s second weekend, smothering Syracuse 62–46 before grinding out a 67–61 win over Oregon State. Kelvin Sampson’s club squandered a 17-point, halftime lead against the Beavers before fighting back to punch its ticket to the final weekend.
One Big Thing We’ve Learned
Houston can win without shooting well. As a team it’s only shot better than 40% from the field once in the tournament, and that came in the opener against No. 15 seed Cleveland State. Against Oregon State, the Cougars became the first team in at least the last 10 years to win a game outside of the tournament’s first weekend when shooting under 33% from the field. How? Houston is a menace on the offensive glass. The Cougars snatched 18 offensive rebounds against Oregon State, 15 against Cleveland State, 14 against Rutgers and 11 against Syracuse. Sometimes the missed shot is Houston’s best offense.
Best-Case Scenario
Houston hasn’t lost all season when star guards Quentin Grimes, DeJon Jarreau and Marcus Sasser all score in double figures. When that trio plays its best and is combined with the Cougars’ elite defense and offensive rebounding, Houston is as hard to beat as anyone in the country. Grimes, Jarreau and Sasser will have strong competition across from them against Baylor: Davion Mitchell is as disruptive as any guard in the country, Jared Butler is an All-America and MaCio Teague is a special shooter. In the best-case scenario Houston’s guards match Baylor’s shot-for-shot and the rest of the Cougars do their thing on the glass, giving UH enough extra possessions to win this one.
Worst-Case Scenario
Houston’s shooting woes continue. It’s a bit concerning how much the UH offense has struggled to make shots against Syracuse and Oregon State, a pair of defenses that rank well outside the top 50 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metrics. While Baylor’s high-intensity man-to-man is far different from the zones that OSU and Syracuse deployed, it’s more than possible that the Cougars simply won’t be able to score enough against one of the best offenses in the country. It’s going to be hard for Houston to keep this game in the 50s and 60s like how it prefers to play.
X-Factor: Foul Trouble
Houston fouls … a lot. Not only is giving away lots of free throws a bad recipe against an offense as good as Baylor’s, but Houston can ill afford to deal with significant foul trouble for its top guards. The Cougars need their best players to be on the floor and aggressive in a game like this if they are going to advance to the title game.
One Shining Moment Candidate: Tramon Mark
The freshman Mark has already shown off a flair for the dramatic this season. His 35-foot buzzer beater against Memphis in early March was one of the highlights of the season, and he followed that up with the game-winning basket against Rutgers to complete the comeback. Mark isn’t the most efficient scorer, but his ability to pass, defend multiple positions and attack off the bounce is valuable when playing against a team that pressures the ball as well as Baylor does.
Crystal Ball
Houston will be able to exploit Baylor’s weakness on the defensive glass and turn it into lots of second chances, but the Cougars simply won’t be able to make enough shots to keep up with Baylor’s high-powered offense. Mitchell won’t allow the Houston guards to ever get into rhythm, and the Bears hit enough threes at the other end to win and advance to the national title game.
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