SI Gambling Senior Insider Frankie Taddeo shares the latest MLB futures updates and tracks which teams have seen the most movement.
With the 2021 MLB All-Star only a week away, the oddsmakers have begun to make serious adjustments in their future markets. Focusing on one favorite or spotting a longshot who offers long-term value remains the best way to attack futures betting.
Let’s take a deeper look into the risers and fallers in each respective offering at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas.
ON THE MOVE
The Los Angeles Dodgers have become overwhelming favorites in the eyes of the oddsmakers to win the 2021 World Series. Jockeying for position behind the Dodgers this week on the overall odds board are the Astros, Padres, Mets, White Sox, and Red Sox.
Boston is one team in the World Series market that has witnessed a noticeable shift in their odds since last week. The Red Sox, who have won nine of their last 10 games, have seen their 16-1 odds drop to 10-1.
Another noticeable move belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers, who, after winning eight of their last 10 games, have seen their 40/1 opening odds sliced to only 14/1 this week.
One team the sportsbooks have their eyes on is the Seattle Mariners, who have won six of their last 10 games. The oddsmakers at the Westgate Superbook believe Seattle’s latest run is not a fluke and, correspondingly, have cut their 200/1 odds offered last week down to 80/1 this week.
LOSING RESPECT
One of the biggest disappointments in 2021, the New York Yankees, has seen their odds move significantly from last week, rising from 12/1 to 20/1. The Yankees, who trail the Red Sox by 10.5 games in the AL East, now witness their highest odds after opening the year at odds of 6/1.
In addition, the Chicago Cubs, who are just 1-12 over their last 13 games, are a team that could be out of the NL Pennant chase by the time we hit August. The oddsmakers were off the mark as they opened the Cubs at odds of 30/1 only to adjust to an offering of 60/1 based upon their recent struggles.
2021 WORLD SERIES FUTURES ODDS
2021 NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT FUTURES ODDS
The Dodgers, poised to catch the front-leading Giants finally, continue to own the perch atop the NL Pennant odds board (+160) well ahead of San Francisco, who sit at 7/1.
The biggest move from last week belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers, who, thanks to their torrid play of late, have won 13 of 16, have seen their odds drop from 20/1 to 7/1.
The San Diego Padres, thanks to the third-best run differential (+84) in the National League, saw their odds reduced for the third consecutive week down to a season-low of +425.
2021 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT FUTURES ODDS
The team that made the biggest move from last week is the Seattle Mariners in American League Pennant futures. The Mariners, who are now just 3.5 games behind in the Wild Card race, saw their 100/1 odds offered last week sliced to 40/1 this week.
The New York Yankees, who have lost nine of their last 13 games, could be “sellers” at the trade deadline if their recent struggles continue. Over the past seven games, both star pitchers Gerrit Cole and Aroldis Chapman have been major disappointments. Chapman is 1-1 with a 16.88 ERA and 3.38 WHIP, while Cole is a pedestrian 2-2 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
At TwinSpires, World Series liabilities remain mostly unchanged from last week. The Brewers, Indians, and Reds all rank among the most wagered upon teams, with only Milwaukee residing in first place in their respective division (NL Central).
In National League Pennant futures, the “Dodgers are still the worst-case scenario for us (opened +170). They have received both 19% of the tickets and 23% of the money,” said TwinSpires Trading Analyst Zachary Lucas. In addition, “we have significant risk on Brewers (they were bet at +2275) and are now down to +500.”
In our American League Pennant futures, the “Astros (opened +800, now +275) have received 15% of the tickets resulting in 19% of the money,” added Lucas. “In addition, the Yankees and Indians pose as sizable liabilities.”
TwinSpires traders are extremely happy, to say the least, to see the recent slide of both the Indians and Yankees. Cleveland has lost seven consecutive games since the sportsbook revealed last week that “their book will be rooting for the Chicago White Sox to hold on the rest of the way after taking significant action on Cleveland to win the AL Central.”
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