Updated MLB futures outlook and tracking the teams with the most betting movement
Heading into the final quarter of the 2021 MLB season, oddsmakers have begun to make significant adjustments in their future markets as division races heat up. Focusing on one favorite or spotting a longshot who offers long-term value remains the best way to attack futures betting.
ON THE MOVE
The Los Angeles Dodgers remain overwhelming favorites in the eyes of the oddsmakers to win the 2021 World Series. Jockeying behind the Dodgers on the board are three teams at single-digit odds: the Houston Astros, Chicago White Sox, and Tampa Bay Rays. Philadelphia is one team in the World Series market that witnessed a noticeable shift in their odds post-All-Star break—continue to see their odds plummet. The Phillies, who are in a thick of a three-team race for the NL East with the Mets and Braves, have seen their 30-1 odds back on July 20 drop to their lowest offering of the 2021 season at 18-1.
Another noticeable move belongs to Tampa Bay, which has opened up a three-game lead in the AL East over Boston, New York, and Toronto. The Rays see their 14/1 odds offered back in July sliced to only 9/1 this week.
One team the sportsbooks have their eyes on is the Atlanta Braves, who have taken over first place in the NL East. The oddsmakers believe the Braves are a club that should be taken seriously. In World Series odds, Atlanta was offered at 60/1 last month, only to see a sizable reduction this week down to 18/1.
LOSING RESPECT
The New York Mets, who won just six of their last 18 games, have seen their odds soar from 12/1 to 25/1. The Mets, who now trail both the Braves and Phillies in the NL East, clearly miss the services of star pitcher Jacob deGrom (elbow) and top-hitting shortstop Francisco Lindor (oblique).
In addition, the San Diego Padres - who are just 9-10 over their last 19 games dating back to July 27, have fallen 11 games behind the Giants in the race for the NL West crown. The sportsbooks, who were offering the Padres at 10/1 last month, are now offering the Southern California power at their highest odds of 2021 at 14/1.
San Diego missed the bat of star shortstop Fernando Tatis (shoulder) over the last several weeks. Tatis, who made his return on Sunday slugging two home runs while playing the outfield for the first time in his career, has now lost pitcher Yu Darvish (back) to the 10-day injured list.
2021 WORLD SERIES FUTURES ODDS
2021 NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT FUTURES ODDS
The Dodgers, who still trail the front-leading Giants by 4.0-games, continue to own the top perch atop the NL Pennant odds board (+160) well ahead of San Francisco, who sit at 5/1. The lack of respect for a Giants club that owns the best record in Major League Baseball continues to lead to immense value for bettors.
The biggest move over the past month belongs to Philadelphia - who sit 1.5-games behind the Braves in the NL East. The Phillies, who were being offered at odds of 40/1 before the All-Star break, have been drastically dropped to 9/1.
The Atlanta Braves are red-hot, going 14-5 over their last 19 games en route to taking over first place in the NL East. The Braves, listed at odds of 30/1 on July 20 to win the NL Pennant, now find their lowest single-digit (9/1) offering of 2021.
2021 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT FUTURES ODDS
The Chicago White Sox, who have the most home wins (40) of any club in the American League this season, now find themselves listed as co-favorites to capture the American League Pennant with the Houston Astros at odds of 3/1. Chicago has cashed for bettors at a 58% win clip thus far this season, and oddsmakers are now strong believers in the White Sox.
The Tampa Bay Rays, who have posted a record of 17-8 over their last 25 games, now own the best record in the American League. Despite all the upgrades to their lineup at the trade deadline, oddsmakers believe the Rays (+350) have a significantly greater chance of winning the AL Pennant over their AL East rival New York Yankees (7/1).
2021 PLAYER BETTING FUTURES
Richard Mackson/USA TODAY Sports
Obviously, like all sportsbooks around the country, the overwhelming liability in the American League MVP market falls upon Angels star Shohei Ohtani. The star outfielder, who leads the majors in home runs (39) while tied for third in runs batted in (86), is now a prohibitive favorite of -1000 or higher at nearly all sportsbooks. Boston’s Rafael Devers, who leads Major League Baseball in runs batted in (89), is an interesting option at astronomical odds of 75/1 should the Red Sox find a way to overtake Tampa Bay for the AL East title.
In Cy Young betting markets, sportsbooks have a sizable risk on Chicago White Sox’s Lance Lynn (-250) to win the AL Cy Young award. The veteran right-hander leads the American League with a 2.26 ERA with 12 quality starts in 21 appearances.
Over in the National League, we see a much more wide-open board with Philadelphia Phillies hard-throwing ace Zack Wheeler as a lukewarm favorite at plus-odds of around +200. Walker Buehler of the Dodgers and Corbin Burnes of the Brewers round out the top three.
The best value on the NL Cy Young betting board is easily Max Scherzer at healthy double-digit odds. The veteran is now 10-4 with a 2.69 ERA and a minuscule 0.90 WHIP. Scherzer, who has not lost since May 30, is 2-0 with 2.20 ERA in three starts since being acquired from the Washington Nationals.
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