2021 NCAA Men's Tournament - Betting Breakdown for the First Four Round

Mar 18, 2021

SI Gambling analyst Roy Larking breaks down the betting angles and shares his picks for the First Four play-in round of the 2021 March Madness tournament.

Have you signed up to become an SI PRO subscriber?

Members are coming off a very profitable week from the NCAA conference championships. Alabama (+220), Illinois (+375) and Georgia Tech (+2500) all delivered with big conference tournament championships in the SEC, Big Ten and ACC respectively. Notably, SI PRO subscribers were alerted to the Georgia Tech odds as early as Sunday, March 7 before oddsmakers adjusted to +1000 and even lower in Las Vegas.

Members have already been alerted to early plays for the start of the NCAA men's tournament, including the First Four game between Michigan State and UCLA, and three plays for Friday's slate! Join today and start beating the books with us!

What is the March Madness First Four round?

Welcome to the 2021 NCAA Men’s Division I March Madness basketball tournament. Action begins on Thursday, March 18, with four games from the First Four round. First played during the 2011 tournament, the First Four matchups are a mix of the four lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers, teams that won a conference championship, and the four lowest-seeded at-large teams. The four automatic qualifiers play each other and the winners advance to main bracket as No. 16 seeds. The four at-large teams play each other and the winners advance to main bracket as No. 11 seeds.

SI’s tournament newsletter analyzes everything you need to know about the Big Dance: what just happened and what’s happening. Sign up for Morning Madness here.

Dating back to 2011, there have been 36 First Four games and 28 of the winners were eliminated during the Round of 64. Of the eight winners, four advanced to the Round of 32 and three advanced to Sweet 16 round. Virginia Commonwealth University is the most successful First Four team in March Madness history. The Rams earned an at-large bid in the 2011 tournament, and advanced to the Final Four before losing to Butler. March Madness 2019 was first time all four First Four winners lost during the Round of 64. Here are previews and picks for the 2021 First Four contests.

Sign up to play SI's Bracket Challenge and compete for a chance to win prizes. This contest is FREE to enter so get in on the action! Create Your Group Now | Official Rules

No. 16 Texas Southern Tigers vs. No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers

The NCAA men's tournament begins with Texas Southern battling Mount St. Mary’s. Tipoff for the Tigers vs. Mountaineers contest is slated for 5:10 p.m. ET at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Ind. Texas Southern is the Southwestern Athletic Conference champion, and Mount St. Mary’s won the Northeast Conference championship. These teams are unfamiliar foes as this is the first-ever meeting between these schools. The winner advances to the East Region, as the No. 16 seed, and faces No. 1 seed Michigan.

Texas Southern (16–8) was impacted by COVID-19 early in the season and was slow out of the gate with a 2–7 record. Rebounding from the slow start, the Tigers were red-hot down the stretch as they won 14 of their final 15 games. That includes an 80–61 win over the Prairie View A&M Panthers, as 3-point underdogs, in the SWAC tournament championship game. The Tigers average 74.8 ppg on offense and allow 69.7 ppg on defense. Texas Southern is 1–8 during nine previous March Madness appearances.

Mount St. Mary's (12–10) was also hit hard by COVID-19 and were inconsistent early in the season. After opening with a 5–7 record, the Mountaineers won seven of their final 10 games. That includes wins against the top two teams in the Northeast Conference tournament. They defeated the Wagner Seahawks 66–60 as 4.5-point underdogs in the semifinals and the Bryant Bulldogs 73–68 as 6.5-point underdogs in the NEC final. The Mountaineers average 63.7 ppg on offense and allow 62.3 ppg on defense.

Pick: Texas Southern Tigers +104 moneyline at DraftKings

Betting Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook – Game Time 5:10 p.m. ET

Enter FREE March Madness fantasy drafts at FullTime Fantasy Sports

Drake Bulldogs vs. Wichita State Shockers

Drake and Wichita State meet in the second First Four contest. Game time for Bulldogs vs. Shockers matchup is 6:27 p.m. ET at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Ind. Drake lost in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship game. Wichita State lost in the semifinal round of American Athletic Conference tournament. Prior to moving to the AAC in 2018, the Shockers won 11 straight games against the Bulldogs. The winner advances to the West Region, as the No. 11 seed, and will face No. 6 seed USC.

Drake (25–4) opened the season with an 18-game winning streak and finished second in the Missouri Valley standings. The Bulldogs were upset in their regular season finale as they lost 67–61 as 8-point favorites to the Bradley Braves. They rebounded with a 71–69 win against Missouri State as 1.5-point chalk in the MVC tournament semifinal. That was followed by a 75–65 loss to Loyola Chicago as 8.5-point underdogs in the championship game. Drake score 77.4 PPG on offense and allow 64.7 ppg on defense.

Wichita State (16–5) finished first American Athletic standings as their 11–2 (.846) conference record was slightly better than the Houston Cougars who were 14–3 (.823) in AAC games. The Shockers closed the regular season with seven straight wins. They defeated South Florida 68–67 in the AAC tournament quarterfinals, but failed to cover as 11-point favorites. That was followed by a 60–59 loss to Cincinnati as 4-point chalk in the semifinal game. Wichita State score 72.4 ppg and allow 67.4 ppg on defense.

Pick: Wichita State Shockers +2.5 (-114) ATS at DraftKings

Betting Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook – Game Time 6:27 p.m. ET

March Madness betting is offered daily at DraftKings sportsbook

Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Norfolk State Spartans

Another first-ever meeting features Appalachian State against Norfolk State in the third First Four game. Tipoff for the Mountaineers vs. Spartans is at 8:40 p.m. ET at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Appalachian State punched their ticket to the Big Dance by winning Sun Belt Conference tournament. Norfolk State received their automatic entry by winning the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference tournament. The winner advances to the West Region, as the No. 16 seed, and will face No. 1 seed Gonzaga.

Appalachian State (17–11) began the season with a 12–7 record before four games were canceled due to COVID-19. Following a 19-day layoff, the Mountaineers ended the regular season with losses in four of their final five games. They turned things around with four wins in the Sun Belt tournament. That includes a 76–73 OT win over No. 1 West seed Texas State in the quarterfinals and an 80–73 victory over No. 1 East seed Georgia State in the final. The Mountaineers score 70.9 ppg and allow 64.5 ppg.

Norfolk State (16–7) was also hit hard by COVID-19 as they had six games canceled. After opening the season with a 10–7 record, the Spartans are on a six-game winning streak. That includes an 87–58 win against NC Central as 5.5-point favorites in the MEAC tournament quarterfinals. North Carolina A&T pulled out of the semifinal game, and the Spartans defeated Morgan State 71–63 as 2.5-point chalk in the championship final. Norfolk State scores 75.2 ppg on offense and allow 69.2 ppg on defense.

Pick: Norfolk State Spartans +3.5 (-114) ATS at DraftKings

Betting Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook – Game Time 8:40 p.m. ET

UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans

First Four action concludes with UCLA battling Michigan. Tipoff for the Bruins vs. Spartans matchup is slated for 9:57 p.m. ET at Mackey Arena. These teams last met in the 2019 Maui Invitational Tournament. Michigan State won 75–62, but failed to cover as 14-point favorites. The Spartans lost in the second round of the Big Ten tournament, and the Bruins lost in the Pac-12 tournament quarterfinals. The winner advances to the East Region bracket, as the No. 11 seed, and will face No. 6 seed BYU Cougars.

UCLA (17–9) opened the season with a 13–3 record, but enter March Madness having lost four straight and six of their last 10 games. The Bruins season-ending schedule was tough as seven of their last 10 contests were on the road. UCLA entered the Pac-12 tournament as the No. 4 seed and lost 91–85 in overtime to No. 5 seed Oregon State as 5.5-point favorites. The underdog Beavers ended up winning the Pac-12 championship. The Bruins average 72.8 ppg on offense and they allow 68.5 ppg on defense.

Michigan State (15-12) opened with a 6–0 record in non-conference action, but lost nine of their next 13 games against Big Ten opponents. The Spartans closed the regular season on a 5–2 run that included upset wins against Michigan, Illinois and Ohio State. They entered the Big Ten tournament as the No. 9 seed and lost 68–57 to No. 8 seed Maryland in the second round. Michigan State score 69.0 ppg on offense and allow 70.6 ppg on defense. The Spartans are the hotter team heading into this contest.

Pick: Michigan State Spartans -2 (-112) ATS at DraftKings