Senior fantasy analyst Michael Fabiano breaks down the incoming rookie running backs and their on-field & fantasy potential.
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QUARTERBACKS | RUNNING BACKS | WIDE RECEIVERS | TIGHT ENDS
Running backs have long been the lifeblood of fantasy football. The position has had the most appeal in the early rounds of drafts for as long as I can remember, and it’s the one place where rookies have made the biggest statistical impact. Dating back into the 1980s, guys like Eric Dickerson, George Rogers, Marcus Allen, and Roger Craig (among others) have come right into the league and produced solid numbers.
Since 2000, we’ve seen numerous running backs find statistical success too. In fact, six of the top 10 rookie running back seasons based on fantasy points have come in the last 20 years. That list of talented runners includes current fantasy superstars like Saquon Barkley (2018), Ezekiel Elliott (2016), and Alvin Kamara (2017).
This past season, two of the top seven running backs, Jonathan Taylor and James Robinson, were rookies. We also saw other first-year backs like Antonio Gibson, D'Andre Swift, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, J.K. Dobbins, and Cam Akers make some noise in the stat sheets. The 2021 class might not be as deep, but there are plenty of players with upside. So, for those fans looking to get a head start on doing their due diligence at the position, here’s my look at the top running backs for 2021.
Note: Age listed is at the start of the 2021 NFL season.
Travis Etienne, Clemson
- 22 years old, 5-foot-10, 220 pounds
2020 Stats: (12 games) 168 carries, 914 yards, 5.4 YPC, 14 touchdowns, 48 catches, 588 yards, 12.3 YPC, 2 touchdowns, 1,520 scrimmage yards
During his time at Clemson, Etienne had a tremendous statistical career that included a pair of seasons with 1,600-plus yards on the ground. He rushed for 19 or more touchdowns twice, including a 2018 campaign that saw Etienne rush for a bananas 24 touchdowns. He also ranked sixth among 2020 backs in broken tackles (25).
Most scouts believe Etienne has the tools to be a three-down back at the next level. Not only did he compile a 7.2 yards-per-carry average during his four years with the Tigers, but he also proved to be a willing pass catcher. Over his final 27 games, he hauled in 85 passes for 1,020 yards and six touchdowns. If he can improve just a bit in pass protection, the sky could be the limit for Etienne as a rookie and beyond.
Possible destinations: Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris, Alabama
- 23 years old, 6-foot-2, 230 pounds
2020 Stats: (13 games) 251 carries, 1,466 yards, 5.8 YPC, 26 touchdowns, 43 catches, 425 yards, 9.9 YPC, 4 touchdowns, 1,891 scrimmage yards
Harris is the latest in a long line of superstar running backs to come out of Alabama. He averaged nearly six yards per carry in his final collegiate season and put up a ridiculous 26 rushing touchdowns. That led the nation. Harris also proved he could handle a featured workload in 2020, seeing 251 carries and nearly 300 touches.
Like Etienne, Harris projects to be a three-down back at the NFL level. He doesn't have top-end speed, but he's a smooth runner who can also make some noise as a pass-catcher. In fact, his 43 receptions this past season were a personal best. Harris also ranked third in the nation among running backs in broken tackles and yards after contact. NFL Network draft guru Daniel Jeremiah compares him to Matt Forte.
Possible destinations: Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers
Javonte Williams, North Carolina
- 21 years old, 5-foot-10, 220 pounds
2020 Stats: (11 games) 157 carries, 1,140 yards, 7.3 YPC, 19 touchdowns, 25 catches, 305 yards, 12.2 YPC, 3 touchdowns, 1,445 scrimmage yards
Williams is coming off a monster final season with the Tar Heels, producing over 1,100 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground while averaging more than seven yards per carry. He worked in a committee during his collegiate career, so he will enter the NFL with fresh legs and the potential to be a three-down running back.
Williams is a powerful runner, as he finished second among running backs in yards after contact. He also led all runners in broken tackles with 50 in just 11 games. The next-best total was Tank Bigsby's 36 broken tackles. Williams is also strong as a pass catcher, and his 25 catches this past season was a personal best. He's also a good pass protector, and I wouldn't be shocked if he snuck into the end of Round 1.
Possible destinations: Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers
Michael Carter, North Carolina
- 22 years old, 5-foot-8, 199 pounds
2020 Stats: (11 games) 145 carries, 1,245 yards, 8.0 YPC, 9 touchdowns, 25 catches, 267 yards, 10.7 YPC, 2 touchdowns, 1,512 scrimmage yards
Carter isn't the biggest back at 5-foot-8, but that didn't stop him from rushing for 1,000+ yards in consecutive seasons at North Carolina. In 2020, he averaged a tremendous eight yards per rush. A versatile performer, Carter has caught at least 21 passes in each of his last three seasons, including 25 this past campaign.
Carter ranked 15th among running backs in yards after contact, and his 113.1 yards per game averaged was 13th at the position. He doesn't figure to be a featured back at the next level. Still, Carter could be a big part of a rotational situation or earn a complementary role because of his elusiveness and versatile skill set. He’s most likely a second-day pick and could bring PPR value in re-drafts and dynasty formats.
Possible destinations: Arizona Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans
Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis
- 22 years old, 5-foot-11, 191 pounds
2019 Stats: (14 games) 231 carries, 1,459 yards, 6.3 YPC, 13 touchdowns, 51 catches, 610 yards, 12.0 YPC, 3 touchdowns, 2,069 scrimmage yards
Gainwell opted out of the 2020 campaign due to the COVID-19 pandemic, so he's been preparing for the 2021 NFL Draft. Much like his fellow Tigers alum Antonio Gibson, Gainwell was featured as a running back and receiver during the 2019 campaign. In that role, he developed into quite a dynamic playmaker for Memphis.
An elusive weapon who brings a surprising amount of power for a back of his size, Gainwell was also lined up in the slot and utilized in the screen game. He played out of a spread offense in college, so he will have a transition when he enters the NFL. Gainwell is smaller than Gibson, who ultimately found success as a rookie with the Football Team, so I wouldn’t project a true featured role. He could be a PPR asset.
Possible destinations: Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans
Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State
- 22 years old, 6-foot-0, 208 pounds
2020 Stats: (7 games) 133 carries, 625 yards, 4.7 YPC, 5 touchdowns, 8 catches, 52 yards, 6.5 YPC, 1 touchdown, 677 scrimmage yards
Hubbard was a Heisman trophy candidate in 2019 when he racked up 2,094 yards on the ground and 21 touchdowns for the Cowboys. He also led all running backs in yards after contact and total yards per game, and he tied for 14th in the nation in broken tackles. Rather than go pro, Hubbard decided to return to college in 2020.
That didn't work out, as he rushed for a modest 625 yards and saw his yards-per-rush average decline nearly two full yards. He also caught just eight passes on 141 plays, down from the 23 receptions he produced during his previous campaign. A former Canadian track star, Hubbard has speed to burn and is an elusive runner. Pass protection is a concern and will have to be addressed.
Possible destinations: Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks
Javian Hawkins, Louisville
- 5-foot-9, 196 pounds
2020 Stats: (8 games) 133 carries, 822 yards, 6.2 YPC, 7 touchdowns, 16 catches, 127 yards, 7.9 YPC, 1 touchdown, 949 scrimmage yards
Hawkins was a superstar at Louisville, as he became the first running back in school history to surpass the 1,500 rushing yard mark. That came in 2019 when Hawkins put up 1,525 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging nearly six yards per rush. He played eight games in 2020 before opting out due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Hawkins was on pace for another big year, totaling nearly 1,000 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns. Despite the shortened season, he still finished 22nd among running backs in yards after contact and broke 13 tackles. Hawkins finished eighth among backs in that stat the previous season. His size will limit his role in the NFL, and he also dealt with ball security issues as a collegian.
Possible destinations: Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers
Kylin Hill, Mississippi State
- 23 years old, 5-foot-11, 210 pounds
2019 Stats: (13 games) 242 carries, 1,350 yards, 5.6 YPC, 10 touchdowns, 18 catches, 180 yards, 10.0 YPC, 1 touchdown, 1,530 scrimmage yards
Hill produced his best statistical season with the Bulldogs in 2019 when he totaled over 1,300 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. He also handled 260 touches in 13 games, proving that he could handle a sizable workload. He played in just three games this past season before opting out to focus on preparing for the NFL draft.
Hill ranked tied for ninth among runners in broken tackles in his last full season and was 21st in yards per game average and 22nd in yards after contact. While he isn’t a gifted pass catcher, Hill isn’t devoid of talent in that area. Where he does lack is in the speed department, however. He’s best served in a committee at the next level.
Possible destinations: Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, New York Giants, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers
Rhamondre Stevenson, Oklahoma
- 23 years old, 6-foot-0, 246 pounds
2020 Stats: (6 games) 101 carries, 665 yards, 6.6 YPC, 7 touchdowns, 18 catches, 211 yards, 11.7 YPC, 0 touchdowns, 876 scrimmage yards
Stevenson played in just 19 games at the collegiate level, and he didn’t see a huge role in the Sooners offense until his final season. During that time, he averaged 16.8 carries and three receptions per game. He played in just six contests in 2020 due to being suspended for a positive THC test before the 2019 Peach Bowl.
Stevenson is a powerful, downhill runner who can also give NFL teams a good pass-catching option out of the backfield. He doesn’t figure to see a featured role at the next level, but Stevenson could be a part of a committee scenario. He’s likely to be a Day 3 selection for a team looking to add running back talent and depth for 2021.
Possible destinations: Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks
Trey Sermon, Ohio State
- 22 years old, 6-foot-1, 215 pounds
2020 Stats: (8 games) 116 carries, 870 yards, 7.5 YPC, 4 touchdowns, 12 catches, 95 yards, 7.9 YPC, 0 touchdowns, 965 scrimmage yards
Sermon didn't post huge overall numbers in his final collegiate season, but he did finish strong after splitting the workload with Master Teague. In his final three games before being hurt in the National Championship, Sermon recorded a combined 636 rushing yards and scored three touchdowns on the ground.
Sermon finished the season ranked tied for 10th in broken tackles among running backs, and he'll come to the NFL with fresh legs. Between three seasons with the Oklahoma Sooners and one with the Buckeyes, Sermon never had more than 164 carries. He's not going to offer teams on the next level much as a pass-catcher, but he could be a bruising part of a committee situation. He'll likely be a Day 3 selection.
Possible destinations: Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for all of the latest breaking fantasy football news and the best analysis in the business!
