SI Gambling guru Shawn Childs shares his preferred targeted NFL win totals bets for the upcoming 2021 season.
Before I venture down another fantasy path for the upcoming football season, I’m changing gears to take a look at the over/under totals for all 32 teams. From early May through the middle part of July, I researched each franchise from top to bottom to get a snapshot of each team’s strengths and weaknesses. Here are my top five team win total investments for 2021:
New England Patriots (Over 9.5 Wins)
In the first season without Tom Brady, the Patriots went 7-9 while giving away two possible big wins on the road to Seattle and Buffalo.
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Against the Seahawks in Week 2 on the road, Cam Newton passed for an impressive 397 yards with success on the ground (11/47/2). With the game on the line (20-25) with three seconds left on the clock and the ball on Seattle’s one-yard line, New England decided to run a power formation with Newton running a quarterback sneak. The Seahawks made the stop for the win, and Patriots fans questioned why Belichick didn’t spread the field to give his quarterback more options to find a winning seam.
Four games later, New England headed to Buffalo, riding a three-game losing streak. The Bills started the season with a 5-2 record, but they had lost seven straight games to the Patriots (3-32 against Tom Brady). With four minutes and 10 seconds left in the contest, Buffalo kicked a field goal to go up 24-21. Newton led New England on a 60-yard drive, but he fumbled after a five-yard gain on the Bills’ 14-yard line with 31 seconds on the clock.
My point is that the Patriots weren’t that far off from going 9-7, with one of the weakest receiver corps in the league. They brought Cam Newton in late, coming off a shoulder issue. Their defense ranked seventh in points allowed (353) while missing one of their best players (LB Dont'a Hightower) for the whole season (Opt-out – Covid), and their top CB (Stefon Gilmore) didn’t suit up for five games.
A similar case for wins slipping away could be made for every NFL franchise each season, but the Patriots are the only team in the league with a stellar record over the past 20 years. They won 10 or more games each year from 2003 to 2019 (17 seasons).
The success of Tom Brady in Tampa shifts the paradox where Bill Belichick needs to make a deep run in the postseason without his former star quarterback.
In 2021, New England has a favorable schedule (MIA, @NYJ, NO, TB, @HOU, DAL, NYJ, @LAC, @CAR, CLE, @ATL, TEN, @BUF, @IND, BUF, JAC, and @MIA) with nine games at home.
Miami and Buffalo continue to improve. Of the two teams, the Dolphins may be the better team this year. The receiver corps looks deeper, and the overall talent on defense should lead to improved play. The Dolphins need Tua Tagovailoa to make a push to elite quarterback status. New England needs to go 2-2 at a minimum in these matchups.
The Jets have a rookie quarterback with questions about their talent on the offensive line and in their secondary. I’ll give Belichick’s defense the edge in both wins.
Houston, Tennessee, Atlanta, and Jacksonville have weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball. The Texans and Colts enter the season with starting quarterback concerns. The Patriots face their most challenging matchups at home (NO, TB, DAL, CLE, and TEN). The highlight game comes in Week 4 (Brady vs. Belichick).
In the end, more depth at wide receiver and tight end and a top tier defense should allow New England to win 10 or more games over a 17-game schedule. I expect Cam Newton to play well, but the Patriots have much better insurance in 2021 at quarterback if he fails to win games.
Buffalo Bills (Under 11 wins)
I know Bills’ fans want to pump up their chests after an excellent season (13-3), thanks to their new young stud quarterback, who they paid $258 million this week. There is no questioning the talent of Josh Allen, but his success and ceiling fall on a repeated season by Stefon Diggs (127/1,535/8). In addition, his WR2 and WR3 enter the season with a combined age of 66.
Buffalo’s offensive line is suspect, and their defense is led by two players (Tremaine Edmunds and Tre’Davious White) who showed regression in 2020. The Bills will struggle vs. the run, an area the Patriots will look to exploit. Their pass rush also has failure risk.
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The Bills drew the Steelers at home in Week 1 while seeing six tough road matchups (MIA, KC, TEN, NO, TB, and NE) compared to New England facing multiple similar matchups at home. The rest of their schedule looks favorable, but Buffalo does draw a highly rated Washington defense in Week 3 at home.
If Stefon Diggs has an injury, the Bills’ passing game takes a significant step backward. Allen may have a Patrick Mahomes feel, but he doesn’t have that second elite receiving option. And he isn’t the next Tom Brady after one good season. Brady won many games by being an excellent game manager while minimizing turnovers, plus his coaching staff was the best in the league.
Pittsburgh Steelers (Over 8.5 Wins)
Vegas projects the Steelers to be a .500 ball club in 2021, despite going 12-4 in 2020 while having one of the better defenses in the NFL. Their strength comes in the pass rush, but Pittsburgh looks to be in transition in the secondary. It’s all about the passing window for quarterbacks.
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Ben Roethlisberger is a veteran quarterback with talent at three wide receiver slots. Last year, he needed to get the ball out quickly to avoid sacks and pressure. His offensive line ranks well below the league average, but the Steelers added a power runner to help move the chains.
The AFC North looks competitive from top to bottom, with the Browns (10.5) and Ravens (11) projected for the most wins. Each team draws the NFC North and AFC West on their schedule, inviting two tough matchups (GB and KC) on the road. In addition, Pittsburgh faces Buffalo (away) and Seattle (home). If they go 4-6 in their division and against their four toughest matchups, the Steelers need to go 5-2 in these games (LV, DEN, CHI, DET, @LAC, MIN, TEN). Based on six of these games being at home, I see a minimum of nine wins.
Pittsburgh should run the ball well in the fourth quarter to help close games. In addition, their offensive line issue may not be as bad as most believe if Najee Harris plays well.
San Francisco 49ers (Over 10.5 Wins)
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I expect the 49ers to have a top-tier offense. They have an excellent offensive line with a premium on drilling defenses on the ground. San Fran also has a developing receiving corps (Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle), which will help threaten defenses all over the whole field.
Their most significant question comes at quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo should open the season as the starter while Trey Lance earns his sea legs on short-yardage plays and at the goal line, where he’ll have an advantage running the ball. The combination of the two options gives the 49ers plenty of firepower to move the ball.
San Francisco draws four favorable matchups (@DET, @JAC, ATL, and HOU), with each team having questions on defense. I view the 49ers as the best team in their division on both sides of the ball.
Their secondary is a concern, and they need Nick Bosa to play well after missing 14 games in 2020 with a torn ACL.
Green Bay Packers (Over 10 Wins)
The offseason spat between Aaron Rodgers and team management ended with some compromise by both sides. Unfortunately, 2021 should end with Rodgers riding off into another team’s locker room. Packers fans have one last chance to dream of a Super Bowl win with their beloved quarterback behind center before Green Bay starts rebuilding their team behind Jordan Love.
Rodgers had the best season of his career in 2020 (4,448 combined yards with 51 touchdowns). However, his offensive line has a massive question at left tackle with David Bakhtiari coming off a torn ACL and no player standing out as a difference-maker.
The Packers still don’t have an elite receiving option behind Davante Adams, but Rodgers found plenty of open receivers last year. Green Bay has talent at running back, helping hide some of their weakness in run blocking.
Their defense has strength in the secondary while attacking the quarterback position from the outside at linebacker. The Packers do have risks at defensive end and middle linebacker. If they can apply pressure with their pass rush, everything else should fall into place.
Green Bay went 26-6 under Matt LaFleur over the past two seasons, and Rodgers has 10 wins or more in nine of his last 10 years when playing 16 games.
Two wins against Detroit should be a given, but their schedule out of their division looks challenging (@NO, @SF, PIT, @CIN, WAS, @ARI, @KC, SEA, LAR, @BAL, and CLE).
In the end, any investment comes from trusting Rodgers to win games.
Senior analyst Shawn Childs is a multi-sport, high-stakes fantasy legend with lifetime earnings in the high six-figures. He has been providing in-depth, analytical break downs for years all while helping his subscribers to countless titles and winnings across season-long & DFS. A inaugural inductee of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn can teach you how to prep like a champ!