Our picks for MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and more.
Who will take home award honors this NBA season? The Crossover staff make their predictions as the 2022-23 season begins.
MVP
Howard Beck: Joel Embiid. If there were an award for “Most Worthy MVP Who Hasn’t Won Yet” (MWMVPWHWY), it would go to Embiid in a landslide. This isn’t to say he’s been “robbed” (he hasn’t, so stop it); he’s just been a victim of unfortunate timing and unfortunate circumstances: injuries, too few games played, a co-star going M.I.A. … and, oh yeah, the misfortune of having his two best seasons overlap with Nikola Jokić having two historic seasons (to say nothing of all the votes being siphoned off by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Stephen Curry).
But Embiid, after back-to-back second-place finishes, is poised to finally seize the hardware. His dominance at both ends is unquestioned. He’s become a little sturdier (68 games last season). His team should be a contender, with a seemingly rejuvenated James Harden and a deeper supporting cast. If history is any guide, it’s unlikely Jokić will win a third straight MVP. That leaves the door wide open for Embiid, if he can fend off the usual suspects (Giannis, Steph, Kevin Durant), everyone’s preseason darling (Luka Dončić) and an array of rising or returning stars (Kawhi Leonard, Jayson Tatum, Zion Williamson, Ja Morant).
John Gonzalez: Joel Embiid. Has to happen eventually, doesn’t it? At least it should. I’m not going to knock Nikola Jokić winning the MVP. He’s an incredible player with a fantastic offensive skillset. But the last two races between those guys were painfully close, and Embiid is clearly the better defensive player between the two. With a full season of Harden by his side, not to mention a much deeper roster than the Sixers have had in a while, Embiid should be in line for another big season—and some hardware. He’s due.
Chris Herring: Joel Embiid. Part of me feels that the 28-year-old Embiid, who’s finished in second place in the MVP voting for two consecutive years now, understands he has to stay extremely healthy in order to earn the award. That should serve as motivation, as should the fact that this will be arguably the best roster around him he’s had since entering the league.
Robin Lundberg: Luka Dončić. It feels like Luka will eventually get one of these and he is at the phase of his career where one typically gets the MVP award. Not to mention he is the lone star on his team, so that may work in his favor with voters based on the narrative when compared to others. The key will be whether he starts the season in better shape.
Chris Mannix: Jayson Tatum. Here’s the thing: Toss out the first two months of last season, when Boston wasn’t battling COVID-related issues or, well, each other, and Tatum played like the MVP. He had the NBA’s best net rating after Jan. 1. He had the league’s best defensive rating after Jan. 1. And even with an uneven November and December, Tatum still led the NBA in plus/minus. This Celtics team, even without Ime Udoka, is built to start fast. Tatum, who spent part of the offseason working with Kevin Durant, could lead the NBA in scoring. And I’m reminded of a conversation Tatum had with Joel Embiid late last season. You better win MVP this year, Tatum told Embiid Because I’m coming for it next year. I think he’s right.
Rohan Nadkarni: Joel Embiid. The MVP race feels wide open this season. Because I don’t see any team running away with the No. 1 overall seed, I don’t think there’s going to be an easy fallback MVP option. So give me Embiid. The Sixers have a great chance to finish first in the East, and Embiid is in line for the award after campaigning hard last season. If Philly finishes ahead of Milwaukee and Boston, he’ll become a logical pick.
Ben Pickman: Stephen Curry. He hasn’t won a league MVP since 2016, but why can’t the Warriors’ star guard take home the honor for the third time if Golden State finds itself at the top of the Western Conference come season's end? Expect another statistical showcase from Curry, who somehow shot the second-lowest percentage from the field last season.
Elizabeth Swinton: Giannis Antetokounmpo. A three-peat for Nikola Jokić is not out of the question, but this will be Antetokounmpo’s year to take back the MVP crown. It is likely to be a close race with Luka Dončić and Joel Embiid also in the conversation, but Antetokounmpo’s defense and experience give him the edge.
Jeremy Woo: Giannis Antetokounmpo. It feels like a long shot the voters give MVP to Jokić three years in a row, so I'm just falling back on an unimaginative but very reasonable Giannis pick. He's durable and you know exactly what he's giving you.
Kyle Wood: Giannis Antetokounmpo. It's time for Antetokounmpo to take back his trophy. The two-time MVP put together his highest-scoring campaign ever last season and led all players in postseason scoring. He'll be at the peak of his powers this coming year with a longer offseason to recover after Milwaukee's second-round exit. With Khris Middleton still sidelined, Antetokounmpo will assume an even heftier workload on his hulking shoulders early on and see to it that the Bucks regain their previous regular-season dominance.
Rookie of the Year
Beck: Keegan Murray. There are several flashier players in this rookie class, and many who will get more shots (and thus, more points) by virtue of anchoring terrible teams. But Murray will get ample opportunities to shine with the Kings, plus one perk the other rookies likely won’t: a chance to win immediately. The woebegone Kings look primed for a breakthrough this season, with a solid shot at the play-in tournament and, perhaps, their first playoff appearance in 17 years. That kind of leap would surely boost Murray’s profile and his candidacy. At 22, he’s the oldest draftee to be taken in the top 10 this year, and arguably the most NBA-ready, with athleticism, shooting range and a solid frame at 6’8” and 225 pounds. He might not score as much as, say, Jabari Smith Jr. or Paolo Banchero, but he’ll get plenty of high-efficiency chances playing off of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis.
Gonzalez: Paolo Banchero. Chalk feels like the right play here. After flirting with Jabari Smith at No. 1 overall, the Magic went with Banchero, which I think was the right move. His combination of size and speed is really impressive. That kid is a man. His usage rate should be off the charts, and accordingly he should put up some nice counting stats which generally go a long way for this award. (Michael Carter-Williams won it! That actually happened! Banchero of course is much better than MCW. Just saying that voters love counting stats when it comes to ROY.) Was tempted to go with Keegan Murray here, but I’m not going to overthink it.
Herring: Bennedict Mathurin. Mathurin strikes me as the guy here. He has a scorer’s mentality, has incredible range and is going to get a ton of opportunity playing for a bad team, yet one that has a fantastic young point guard to set him up, in Tyrese Haliburton. He averaged more than 20 points per game in three preseason games, while shooting almost 53% from the field in that stretch. He’s ready.
Lundberg: Keegan Murray. Murray showed a penchant for scoring in college and was the Summer League MVP. We'll see if that translates to the league but he should have plenty of opportunities in Sacramento. If his preseason performance is any indication, he could come away with a rare trophy for the Kings.
Mannix: Keegan Murray. Believe what you are seeing, people. Murray followed up an MVP performance at summer league with a solid—and sometimes stellar—preseason. He averaged 16 points. He pulled down 4.5 rebounds. He shot 70%--70%--from three. His plus/minus numbers are bonkers. He should start at power forward and even if he doesn’t, he’s going to make it difficult for Mike Brown to keep him off the floor. Monte McNair got this one right.
Nadkarni: Paolo Banchero. I never know how to pick for this award. It inevitably goes to the rookie who scores the most points. I think Banchero should have plenty of opportunities to score in Orlando compared to some of his counterparts.
Pickman: Jaden Ivey. Ivey might be the most explosive rookie in his draft class and seems poised to provide an immediate jolt to Detroit’s offense. He’s a willing passer, and he demonstrated the speed and ability to attack the rim as well while at Purdue. He emerges as an immediate centerpiece for the Pistons in their desire to take a step forward this season.
Swinton: Paolo Banchero. The No. 1 overall pick has rarely won Rookie of the Year in recent seasons, but this year can break the trend. Paolo Banchero is the favorite with Chet Holmgren out for the year, but Jaden Ivey and Keegan Murray can make things interesting in the race.
Woo: Keegan Murray. I think Paolo Banchero's turnovers and inefficiency will lead to some growing pains, while I more or less expect Murray to hit the ground running. If he's not in the lineup on opening night, I'd be surprised if he's not a starter in pretty short order. Yes, Murray may seem kind of boring, but it's the type of boring that leads to immediate success. He's ready.
Wood: Keegan Murray. Murray's arrival in Sacramento will help propel the Kings from the doldrums of the Western Conference to, at the very least, the play-in tournament. Murray is walking right into a starting role where he'll be able to shine and he won't be asked too much of at first as he adjusts to the league. It's an ideal situation for a first-year player who filled up the stat sheet at Iowa and can do a little bit of everything for Sacramento.
Coach of the Year
Beck: Willie Green. To appreciate what Willie Green is capable of, consider what he just went through in his first season as a head coach: the loss of his franchise star to injury; a blockbuster midseason trade; a late-season rally; and a surprising run from play-in bracket to playoff team, where his upstart Pelicans gave the top-seeded Suns all they could handle. Along the way, Green deftly integrated trade pickups C.J. McCollum and Larry Nance Jr. and developed rookies Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado and Trey Murphy III into key rotation players.
And now Zion Williamson is back, giving the Pelicans a plausible Big 3 and a chance to make some noise next spring. There will be challenges in blending the ball-dominant styles of Williamson, McCollum and Brandon Ingram. But Green has already shown a nice balance of old-school snarl and new-age empathy to elicit the best from his young team.
Gonzalez: Tyronn Lue. There’s a voice in my head that’s telling me never to pick anyone related to the Clippers for anything, because history has proven that no one has ever gone broke betting against the other LA team. But Kawhi is back and Paul George is back and Lue is one of the best coaches in the game. Full roster, ostensibly healthy, with lots to play for. Seems like a good formula for the coach to get credit.
Herring: Chris Finch. This is a tough one, but I think the Timberwolves are primed to make another leap, and Finch, entering just his second full season in Minnesota, could be a factor in why. He’ll be the one tasked with figuring out how to maximize the presence of both Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert, and he’ll have to ascertain how to replace the nightly veteran production that got sent to Utah in exchange for the defense-minded center. If Finch can do it smoothly, the Wolves should be a 50-plus win team, and he’ll be deserving of votes here.
Lundberg: Tyronn Lue. If Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are healthy, then the Clippers should be a dangerous team in the West. I've always believed in Lue as a coach and a strong season could lead to him getting the recognition he has earned already in his career, though I would be concerned about load management impacting his case.
Mannix: Chris Finch. In his first full season on the T-Wolves’ bench, Finch pushed Minnesota to 46 wins and a playoff (via play-in) berth last spring. Armed with Rudy Gobert and a ready-to-bust-out Anthony Edwards, the Timberwolves should improve on that. Finch, one of the NBA’s more creative coaches, will deserve some of the credit. If Minny can push into the top-four of the Western Conference standings—not unreasonable when you consider Gobert’s singular ability to transform a defense—Finch could run away with this.
Nadkarni: Michael Malone. The Nuggets are my pick to finish first in the West, and there’s no way Nikola Jokic is going to win another MVP. So Malone winning would be a nice way to recognize the team if the regular season goes according to my plan. Denver is loaded after some smart offseason additions and the return of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. Malone always seems to get the most out of his teams, too.
Pickman: J.B. Bickerstaff. Assuming Cleveland, with Donovan Mitchell now in the fold, takes a significant step forward, then Bickerstaff seems due to receive some individual praise. The Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen-led Cavaliers will be among the league’s most exciting teams this year. And if Bickerstaff draws the most out of this core, the Cavs could be among the most dangerous—and difficult—teams to play come playoff time.
Swinton: Tyronn Lue. The Clippers have heightened expectations with Kawhi Leonard healthy, giving Tyronn Lue the chance to shine at the helm. LA has the talent to be a title contender, and if Lue can make that come to fruition, he will be the favorite for Coach of the Year.
Woo: Willie Green. If indeed the Pelicans are poised for a big step forward into playoff territory, I'd expect Green to get some national recognition in the process. New Orleans has the players to make that happen and establish itself in the West.
Wood: Taylor Jenkins. Jenkins should have won COTY last season just as Monty Williams probably should have won the year prior. Instead, Williams won it in 2022 and Jenkins is due in 2023. He authored a rapid turnaround in Memphis and showed his team can survive the absence of its stars, which will be the case again with Jaren Jackson Jr. out. It will be difficult for the Grizzlies to improve on their win total for the third year in a row after what they achieved last season, but sustained success might just be enough for Jenkins.
Sixth Man of the Year
Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports
Beck: Jordan Poole. It’s hard to shine on a team loaded with all-time greats, but Poole looks like the Warriors’ next breakout star, with enough style, swagger and scoring pop to earn him honorary Splash Brother status. Poole averaged 18.5 points and 4.0 assists in his third NBA season, but he spent most of it as a starter, filling in for the rehabbing Klay Thompson. If Poole can replicate or improve that production from the bench—and that seems a solid bet—he’ll be a top contender for this award. The wildcard here is the backdrop of the Draymond Green punch: If the Warriors’ camaraderie is irreparably damaged, it could sink them all. If they emerge from the incident with their chemistry intact, Poole could garner even more attention and support, for persevering and showing the maturity and magnanimity to welcome Green back, despite it all.
Gonzalez: Jordan Poole. Look, it’s not the best when you and your teammate get into a public spat that results in your face getting punched. No one wants to have a punched face. But messy workplace dynamics aside, it’s clear that the Warriors like Poole and how dynamic he is offensively. His on-court glow-up continues this season. He’s gonna get all the shot attempts he can handle with that second unit.
Herring: Malcolm Brodgon. If Brogdon can stay healthy with a lesser workload in Boston, he could be up for this award, and the Celtics—still dealing with fallout from the Ime Udoka suspension—could be headed back to the Finals. Health isn’t a given with Brogdon, who’s played just 92 games combined over the past two seasons. But the talent he’ll have around him now will be far more like what he enjoyed during his Milwaukee years than his Indiana ones. And the nearly 38% career shooter from three should have more open looks from deep because of the cast he’ll be playing with.
Lundberg: Jordan Poole. Poole already proved his value to the Warriors and that is why he earned a big contract extension. He should become even more important as the Warriors’ original core ages, so I believe his production will only increase this season.
Mannix: Jordan Poole. This feels like an easy one. With Klay Thompson healthy, Poole figures to slide into a full-time reserve role, bringing the 18.5 points per game (and 36.4% three-point shot) to the bench. Poole looked sharp in the preseason and with the Draymond Green incident behind him—and a $140 million contract extension in his pocket—Poole looks in line for another strong season. Perhaps the only question is, will Steve Kerr keep him out of the starting lineup for more than half the season?
Nadkarni: Jordan Poole. Poole was a revelation for the Dubs last year as Klay Thompson took his time to get back on the floor. With Klay taking back hold of his starting spot, Poole will likely come off the bench most of the year. Still, it’s clear the organization values him highly, which means Poole should get plenty of time with the ball in his hands. This award always favors bucket getters, and Poole is exactly the kind of gunner who should benefit.
Pickman: Christian Wood. Wood averaged 17.9 points and 10.1 rebounds for the Rockets last season in just over 31 minutes of action. While Mavericks coach Jason Kidd has said Wood will be a reserve to open the season, he was Dallas’s biggest offseason acquisition for a reason and it’s safe to expect another season of high-usage out of him. Star guard Luka Dončić should only make life easier for him (especially on offense) and up his production.
Swinton: Jordan Poole. The Warriors will be spoiled this season with Klay Thompson starting and Poole coming off the bench. Though the team will be entering the season with underlying drama, Poole will be the leader to take the award after Tyler Herro.
Woo: Norman Powell. Will he come off the bench enough to contend for this award? Unclear. But Powell seems poised for a big year as the ostensible third option on the Clippers, however those minutes come his way.
Wood: Jordan Poole. Poole started much of the regular season and part of the playoff run for the defending NBA champions and averaged close to 20 PPG. Even in a reserve role, 20 PPG isn't out of the question, and that's been the recipe for three of the last five winners. Poole is a special talent capable of closing games with the starting lineup and he's perfectly comfortable going at it alone against second units. It feels as if the only thing that could stop Poole from winning Sixth Man of the Year is if he ends up starting too many games to qualify.
Most Improved Player
Beck: Cam Johnson. Fun fact: Before the NBA created this category (for the 1985-86 season), the league instead named a “Comeback Player of the Year.” Not-so-fun fact: The league abolished that award after just six years, in part because it was often won by a player “coming back” from drug or alcohol issues. Fun addendum: Though the league offers no guidance for most awards, it does specify that “most improved” is intended for an “up-and-coming” player—and specifically not for a player making a comeback.
So about that: We could really use the Comeback Player category again, especially this season, as we welcome back Kawhi Leonard, Zion Williamson, Ben Simmons, John Wall, Jamal Murray, James Wiseman and Jonathan Isaac—all of whom missed the entirety of last season. Add Damian Lillard (who missed the final four months), Anthony Davis (who played just 40 games) and Michael Porter Jr. (who played only nine games), and you have a seriously robust and star-studded pool of candidates.
But for now, we’re stuck with “most improved,” which might be the silliest of all the awards to predict in October, since it’s literally predicated on what a player hasn’t done until now. At least when we’re guessing MVP or DPOY, there’s a track record to go on. Ah, well. If we’re guessing blindly, let's guess Cam Johnson, whose development has been so impressive that the Suns elevated him to starter at the expense of alienating Jae Crowder. Johnson will get more chances to shine as a rising two-way star, for a team that has a shot at contending, and that’s a solid formula to win MIP.
Gonzalez: Tyrese Haliburton. Considered going with Evan Mobley here, who is a star in the making. I just think with Indiana hitting the reset button and handing the keys to Haliburton that he’s in line for a monster season. The Pacers are his to command and his usage rate should tick up accordingly. Should be fun to watch what he can do as the marquee man—even if it might not be fun to watch the rest of the Pacers while he’s at it.
Herring: Precious Achiuwa. Achiuwa took on a much bigger role on the Raptors last season and could be a real factor for this award if he stays on that trajectory. After taking all of one three-point attempt during his rookie season with the Heat—and hitting just under 51% of his free throws that year—the Raptors gave the 6’8” Achiuwa the green light to launch 156 triples last season. He responded by hitting an impressive 35.9% of them, while also averaging 9.1 points per game and 6.5 rebounds in just under 24 minutes per game. The 23-year-old is also a lengthy, versatile defender, too, meaning he’ll likely get a chance to increase his productivity with more playing time this season.
Lundberg: Tyrese Maxey. I'm not so sure Maxey isn't already the second-best player on the Sixers considering James Harden has had a noticeable lack of burst. If the leap it looks like he took in the preseason is real, it will be tough to deny Maxey this recognition as he could be in line for an All-Star type season.
Mannix: Precious Achiuwa. Achiuwa is the latest to bust out of Toronto’s elite player development program. The things Achiuwa does well—run the floor, protect the rim, be active in the paint—he will continue to get better at, and this feels like the season he adds to his game. He’s been a lousy finisher for a player with a 7’1” wingspan and he just started to flash a three-point shot that should only improve. He may have some internal competition for the award, but with a bigger role Achiuwa could average a double-double and be a menace around the rim.
Nadkarni: Scottie Barnes. Ja Morant seemed to take the lid off this award for lottery picks. Barnes is right now a little more of a hipster favorite than obvious No. 1. He could really take a leap for the Raptors, though. And he thrives in many areas of the game. If the Raptors make a jump in the standings, I like the chances of Barnes being seen as the reason why.
Pickman: Tyrese Maxey. The 76ers guard took a major step forward in his second season, seeing his scoring average jump from eight points per game as a rookie to 17.5 per contest as a sophomore in part because of a much-improved three-point shot. Look for him to continue to improve his playmaking for others—he averaged 4.3 assists per game in 2021–22—and solidify his place as a core part of Philadelphia’s present and future.
Swinton: Anthony Edwards. With a revamped group around him and following last year’s momentum, this is Edwards’s year to make the All-Star leap. Tyrese Haliburton and Jalen Brunson may also be in the running, but Edwards’s explosiveness gives him the edge.
Woo: Tyrese Haliburton. It feels like not long ago I stumbled onto Haliburton at a random Iowa State game when he was a skinny freshman with zero name recognition. His ascent has felt like everyone discovering my favorite little indie band, the difference being that it hasn't made Haliburton any less cool. Unless the Pacers tank so hard that it leads to a serious reduction in minutes or games, I expect a big year.
Wood: Tyrese Maxey. Maxey had a case to be named Most Improved in his sophomore season after he doubled his scoring average. Based on what he showed in the playoffs, I'm not ruling out another massive leap. He's a knockdown shooter capable of pushing the ball and he'll play a major role on a team with title aspirations that will rack up plenty of regular-season victories. Maxey is a winning player and he has more to show in his third year in the league.
Defensive Player of the Year
Beck: Rudy Gobert. When Gobert was dominating this award in Utah, winning it three times in a four-year span, we dubbed him a “Walking Top-10 Defense”—the idea being that you could plug him in anywhere and instantly make that team an elite defensive unit. Well, we’re about to see that theory tested in Minnesota, where the Timberwolves have been a bottom-10 defensive team in six of Karl-Anthony Towns’s seven seasons. The Timberwolves are loaded with scoring, in the form of Towns, Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell, and could crack the top six in the West if their defense is finally respectable. And if Gobert gets them there, he might be a lock for his fourth DPOY trophy.
Gonzalez: Rudy Gobert. Hated the trade for Minnesota. Thought the Wolves gave up way too much to get Gobert, and I’m extremely skeptical about what they look like with both Gobert and KAT on the floor. But … they got Gobert to play defense and especially protect the rim. He’s good at that. Plus this award is kinda his thing. He’s won three out of the last four. Make it four out of the last five.
Herring: Bam Adebayo. Adebayo might have won the award last season if he’d logged more than 56 games. He switched defensive assignments following screens 17.5 times per 100 possessions last season, more than any other NBA player, per Second Spectrum data. As perhaps the most versatile defender in a league that places a premium on that sort of interchangeability, the 25-year-old Adebayo is bound to win the award at some point, assuming he can log enough games to win over just enough voters.
Lundberg: Ben Simmons. Brooklyn is probably the last chance for Ben to prove he can be an All-Star once again and, on paper, he brings the Nets much of what they were lacking with his ability to push the pace, distribute the ball and defend. That last aspect will be key to the team's success as Simmons will be relied upon heavily to anchor what was a very suspect defense. If he is able to do so, voters will have a natural story to latch on to.
Mannix: Rudy Gobert. Consider Minnesota’s defensive rankings last season. Defensive rating? 13th. Points allowed? 24th. Opponent field goal percentage? 16th. Gobert, as Jazz executives often described him, is a walking top-10 defense, and if he can push Minnesota into that range—the Wolves have had one top-10 defense in the team’s 34-year history and never been in the top-five—Gobert should reclaim his status as the NBA’s top defender.
Nadkarni: Bam Adebayo. It remains comical who won this award last year when they arguably weren’t even the best defender on their team. The only argument against Bam was that he didn’t play enough games. It’s this simple: Nobody in the NBA can defend all positions in one game better than Adebayo. He can make life hard for Stephen Curry or Joel Embiid and anyone in between. This award is Bam’s to lose.
Pickman: Giannis Antetokounmpo. As my colleagues wrote of Antetokounmpo in our annual NBA player rankings, Antetokounmpo “can no longer be denied as the foremost two-way wrecking ball” in the NBA. He enters his 10th season being not only the league’s most dominant offensive force but perhaps its most impactful defensive one as well. He’s made four consecutive All-Defensive first teams and taken home this honor once before. How about he does it again to cap off a prolific decade in the NBA?
Swinton: Rudy Gobert. New team, same Rudy Gobert. A change in scenery should only add to Gobert’s motivation and defensive prowess. A win would mark Gobert’s fourth DPOY award, an accomplishment only Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo have previously reached.
Woo: Rudy Gobert. A change of scenery and personnel might illustrate just how valuable Gobert is on the defensive end. And of course, he's done this before. While I can't say exactly how the Minnesota roster adds up, Gobert has been a playoff-caliber defense unto himself for years, and I don't think that's changing this season.
Wood: Mikal Bridges. Bridges was a defensive ace for Phoenix last season and he earned a second-place finish in DPOY voting for his play. If the Suns end up trading Jae Crowder, even more responsibility will fall to Bridges, who's tasked with defending opposing teams' top wing scorers each game. As the sport shifts further outside, it only makes sense to reward the best perimeter defenders. And it should matter, especially in today's game, that Bridges—literally and metaphorically—has never taken a night off.
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