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2022 Fantasy Baseball: Closers & Saves Strategy

Closer strategies and how you should treat the saves category in your fantasy baseball leagues.

Wins may be the most challenging part of fantasy baseball, but closers are infuriating. I have a tough time using a high draft pick on a one-category player on draft day. Also, I don't particularly like chasing closers and closers-in-waiting around in the free-agent market. I've tried to cheat saves many times in high-stakes contests. Unfortunately, when I’m wrong, it creates a weakness in my starting lineup and requires more spots on my bench to chase saves.

MORE: 2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Target number

In most seasons, in the high-stakes market in 15-team leagues, a fantasy team needs about 75 to 90 saves on the year (about 3.5 saves per week) to finish in the top 20 percent. Last year in a 12-team format, a fantasy team needed 77 saves to rank in the top 20 percent.

The best teams will use seven starters and two closers. If I fall behind in saves, I’m forced to use a third closer to make up ground. It can work as long as I’m in the right position in wins and strikeouts.

Closers impact in multiple ways – saves, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. At times, they can be a difference-maker in wins. A great example of a five-category closer was Edwin Diaz. His 2018 season should be my goal when I look for a number one closer. He saved 57 games (45 saves would be a reasonable target) with two wins, 1.96 ERA, 0.791 WHIP, and 124 strikeouts. Ideally, it would be great to get a minimum of four wins from each of your top two closers to help in the win category.

Draft goal

One of my goals is to find 150 strikeouts from my two closers. If I find two relievers with this skill set at the right price, I will beat most teams at the backend of the pitching staff. There may be multiple closers with the skill set to get more than 100 strikeouts.

It’s hard to project wins from a closer, but some closers get a chance to pitch in tie games. Maybe the goal should be 45 saves and wins combined. As I mentioned earlier, I’ve cheated saves in the past. Last year I wanted to find one elite closer. The change in the flow of the player pool helped execute this thought process. In 2022, drafters have pushed up the closing inventory, leading to a problematic tradeoff in team building.

Fantasy baseball rankings: Hitters | Pitchers

Closing debate

There are many question marks in most seasons at the closer position, allowing some fantasy managers to get out by cheating saves. This draft plan helps a drafter gain an edge in their offense or starting pitching. To me, it’s all about each player’s price point. Saves were moving backward in the high-stakes market. Even in those years, I had to decide if an SP2 was more important than an elite closer. Most teams will draft two starters inside the first five to six rounds in non-trading formats. So the question is, will a plus closer slide far enough to fit your plan, or does your draft structure allow you to take a third pitcher in the first eight rounds? Most fantasy teams won’t look for their second closer until rounds 10 or 11.

If I decide to cheat saves, I’m at the mercy of the player pool, “Beggars can’t be choosers.” At some point, saves become more valuable than skill set.

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Which side of coin flips

In the past, I’ve drafted a reliever in a bullpen that I thought had a better skill set while being a toss-up to land the 9th inning job. Over the past few years, I’ve learned that the player with the best skill set doesn’t always end up with the bulk of save chances. Many times, a manager chooses a player with the most experience. The key is drafting the right player. If I’m wrong, I just gave away a pick. I’m not a fan of doubling up in one bullpen if both players have similar respect in draft value unless the second option can be found in the late rounds.

The cloudier the situation, the more risk/reward, which allows all players to be discounted to a point. When I get closer to the start of the regular season, I will have a better idea of the favorites to win closing jobs. At the same time, that player could have a short lease.

Strong closer base

On the flip side of chasing one closer or cheating saves completely in a draft is securing two lockdown ninth inning arms. If I build my team this way, the available bench space will help my starting pitching depth, roster an upside batter, or extra hitters to cover in-week injuries. Also, it creates more buying power in free-agent dollars to pick up other valuable players. I have to debate the draft costs in this plan while weighing the tradeoff in the starting pitching pool and hitting inventory.

Final thoughts

As I go through the closer inventory, I’m trying to identify the best options. I also need to understand the draft flow. I want to minimize my risk (giving away picks) and maximize my opportunity.

When I’m ranking these players, strikeouts are a significant factor. Save opportunities are essential, but it is sometimes difficult to predict. I’ve often seen closers from poor teams match closers from top teams in saves. Therefore, I rank the top closers as the pitchers with the best chance of keeping their job and strikeout ability. The second half of the closing inventory tends to be ranked with upside in mind. Some closers have job loss risk, but I like their opportunity. 

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