Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is a slight favorite over reigning passing yards leader Tom Brady at SI Sportsbook to lead the NFL in passing yards.
With the kickoff to the 2022 NFL season only five weeks away, SI Sportsbook is beginning to add attractive markets for sports bettors.
Outside of Super Bowl futures, one of the most popular offerings involves predicting who will lead the league in passing yards.
As an avid high-stakes, season-long fantasy football player, an integral part of my process for my fantasy projections includes incorporating the estimations assigned by oddsmakers. It’s an essential data contribution for successful roster construction.
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From a wagering perspective, the handle on this offering continues to soar as bettors look to invest in either quarterbacks from their favorite team or backing those whom they selected in their fantasy drafts.
Despite healthy odds assigned to every player in a wide-open field, bettors will find the AFC West home to three of the elite options at the top of the betting board.
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Jamie Germano/USA TODAY Network (Allen); Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports (Prescott); Katie Stratman/USA TODAY Sports (Burrow)
2022 REGULAR-SEASON PASSING YARDS LEADER
Justin Herbert +700
Tom Brady +750
Patrick Mahomes +800
Joe Burrow +800
Matthew Stafford +850
Josh Allen +1000
Derek Carr +1000
Dak Prescott +1200
Aaron Rodgers +1400
Russell Wilson +1800
Deshaun Watson +2000
Kirk Cousins +2000
Matt Ryan +2200
Kyler Murray +2200
Tua Tagovailoa +2800
Trevor Lawrence +2800
Mac Jones +3000
Jimmy Garoppolo +3300
Ryan Tannehill +3300
Jalen Hurts +3500
Jameis Winston +3500
Carson Wentz +4000
Lamar Jackson +5000
Trey Lance +5000
Jared Goff +6600
Marcus Mariota +6600
Zach Wilson +6600
Davis Mills +6600
Daniel Jones +8000
Mitchell Trubisky +9000
Kenny Pickett +10000
Malik Willis +10000
Justin Fields +10000
Baker Mayfield +10000
Sam Darnold +10000
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Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
CONTENDERS: Herbert Aims to Top Brady
Justin Herbert (+700)
Justin Herbert (5,014) finished second to Tom Brady (5,316) last season in passing yards and the third-year gunslinger is primed for perhaps his highest-yardage season.
SI Sportsbook has the former Oregon standout listed as the betting favorite to earn top honors in 2022.
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Herbert only finished 302 yards behind Brady last season but the separating margin stemmed from Herbert attempting 47 fewer passes. The Chargers will once again possess one the top wide receiver tandems in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, enabling Herbert to compete against high-powered AFC West foes.
With multiple games against the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders, who also possess elite quarterbacks, bettors should expect plenty of scoring in divisional play.
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Tom Brady (+750)
The G.O.A.T. posted the third highest single-season passing yardage total in NFL history in 2021 and slots in as one of the top contenders once again.
Brady, who has thrown for the most 300-plus yard passing games (66) in NFL history, is primed for more success at the youthful age of 45.
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The veteran quarterback, who already possessed star wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in his arsenal, has been afforded more weapons in the form of Russell Gage and Julio Jones. Despite losing tight end Rob Gronkowski to retirement, bettors still find immense value at odds of +750 for Brady to repeat with games against the Cowboys, Chiefs, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Cardinals on the schedule. All of those matchups have game totals in the mid-50s in early look-ahead wagering.
Colin E. Braley/AP
Patrick Mahomes (+800)
While Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL, statistically he may experience regression in his sixth season after losing star wideout Tyreek Hill.
The gaping hole in the Chiefs’ passing game has led to serious doubts that the elite talent can still finish among the top five players at his position in 2022.
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Although the Chiefs drafted Skyy Moore and signed JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to join tight end Travis Kelce, Mahomes may find it difficult to top his 2018 career-best mark of 5,097 yards.
Despite the likelihood that the former Texas Tech star will throw 37-plus touchdowns for the fourth time in five seasons, it is difficult to endorse him to lead the league in passing yards for the first time with this collection of wideouts in the passing game.
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
SLEEPERS: Derek Carr Leads High-Powered Raiders Offense
Joe Burrow (+800)
Bettors don’t have to look far down the list to find perhaps the biggest threat to the top contenders. Joe Burrow, who threw for the sixth-most passing yards (4,611) in 2021, is set to exceed that mark in his third season.
Loaded with arguably the best trio of wideouts in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, the emerging talent is poised to lead the league in passing yards.
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After earning the coaching staff’s trust last season, Burrow shredded opposing defenses over the final five games of the regular season (355.2 yards per game). Armed with playoff experience and a Super Bowl LVI appearance, expect Zac Taylor to open the playbook even more to suit Burrow’s talents.
SI Betting: NFL Passing Touchdown Leader Betting Breakdown
AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds
AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC
Derek Carr (+1000)
Derek Carr quietly ranked fifth in regular-season passing yards (4,804) last season and he should surpass that total with the addition of star wide receiver Davante Adams.
As collegiate teammates at Fresno State, the pair combined for 3,031 yards and 38 touchdowns in just 26 games. The veteran quarterback set career-highs in both passing attempts and passing yards last season and will eclipse those marks after being reunited with arguably the NFL’s best wide receiver.
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Playing in Josh McDaniels’ pass-heavy offense, Carr will have a solid trio of weapons in Adams, fellow wideout Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller. The potential of six high-scoring AFC West games leads to the strong possibility that Carr will join the exclusive 5,000-yard club, thus making the +1000 odds an alluring investment.
Top Bet: Justin Herbert (+700)
Value Bet: Joe Burrow (+800)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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