With the release of the NFL schedule, we're looking for a betting edge on over/under win totals
The start of the NFL season is four months away, but the hype and anticipation reached another level after fans were treated to the league’s annual schedule release. Now fully cognizant of every team’s road to Super Bowl LVII, oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook have released the 2022 NFL season win totals for (almost) all 32 teams.
We need to highlight that we only have access to 31 team markets as a projection for Cleveland has not been posted due to the unknown status of new Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson. The star signal-caller has not played since the 2020 season after sitting out last season with the Houston Texans and now facing possible suspension related to pending civil suits alleging sexual assault.
After reviewing the NFL schedule release, several win totals markets stand out as worthy investments.
Let’s dive in.
2022 Season Win Total Investments
Philadelphia Eagles OVER 8.5 (-167)
The Eagles significantly fast-tracked the development of young quarterback Jalen Hurts when they acquired former Tennessee star wideout A.J. Brown. Philadelphia pulled off a blockbuster trade on the first night of the NFL draft, sending the No. 18 and No. 101 picks to the Titans for the talented Brown. The physical target, who has compiled 185 receptions resulting in 2,995 yards and 24 touchdowns in just three seasons, instantly takes the Eagles' offense to another level.
Brown joins a Philadelphia offense that already possesses Heisman trophy winner DeVonta Smith, emerging tight end Dallas Goedert and running back Miles Sanders in the backfield.
After finishing last season with a 9-7 record, oddsmakers have the Eagles posted with a season win total projection of 8.5 juiced heavily to the over at odds of -167. The Eagles are listed to get out of the blocks with a victory as they are 4.5-point road favorites at Detroit. Thanks to being handed the third easiest strength of schedule (.464), I envision this number will only rise as we get closer to the season, and I prefer investing in this market at a projection of 9 at more favorable odds.
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Baltimore Ravens OVER 9.5 (-143)
The Ravens were 8-3 last season before injuries derailed their season resulting in losing six consecutive games and a disappointing 8-9 finish in the AFC North. The club will welcome back promising running back J.K. Dobbins in 2022. The dynamic back was lost for his entire sophomore campaign after suffering a season-ending knee injury in the preseason after accounting for 925 total yards and nine touchdowns in his rookie season in 2020.
In Week 6 through Week 12, the Ravens will face the Giants, Browns, Saints, Panthers and Jaguars - a stretch that finds them favored in every game. Every year in the NFL, we witness a team go from last place to division winner the next season. The Ravens, who opened as 4.5-pt road favorites over the Jets in Week 1, are arguably the leading candidate (next to the Broncos) to accomplish that feat this upcoming season with the league’s 10th easiest strength of schedule (.474).
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Arizona Cardinals UNDER 9.5 (-188)
The Cardinals will play their first six games without star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The club struck a deal during the NFL Draft trading for former Ravens wideout Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who is coming off the first 1,000-yard receiving season of his three-year NFL career. However, playing in a division that consists of the defending Super Bowl Champion Rams and an improving 49ers squad, the Cardinals will be challenged to find double-digit wins this upcoming season.
The NFL didn’t do Arizona any favors when making the schedule as the club will open up with Patrick Mahomes, a road trip against Davante Adams and the Raiders, followed by a return home to take on the Champion Rams. In the final three games of his Hopkins suspension, Arizona will face Carolina, Philadelphia and Seattle - which may afford two much-needed victories.
Overall the Cardinals face the second most-difficult strength of schedule (.543), and with a brutal close to the season consisting of matchups at New England, at Denver, home versus Tampa Bay (Christmas Day) and at San Francisco have respected money investing in under the team’s 9.5 season win total projection.
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Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 10.5 (-105)
Betting against Patrick Mahomes is not a very wise investment in many instances. However, the star signal-caller has lost arguably his best receiving weapon after the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill to Miami at the end of March.
Before their bye in Week 8, Kansas City will face formidable challenges with home games against the Chargers, Raiders and Bills and road matchups with the Cardinals, Colts, Buccaneers and 49ers.
Playing the NFL’s sixth toughest strength of schedule (.533) became even more daunting when it was revealed that the Chiefs would close out the regular season playing four of their final six games on the road.
Playing in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, Kansas City will be hard-pressed to win 11 games or earn the AFC West crown for the seventh consecutive season. The Raiders now possess the best wide receiver in the league in Davante Adams, the Seahawks have Russell Wilson under center, and the Chargers own perhaps the most potent offense in the division with Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen.
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2022 NFL Season Win Totals
TOP TIER
Buffalo Bills 11.5 (Over -143)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.5 (Over -125)
Green Bay Packers 11.5 (Under -125)
Dallas Cowboys 10.5 (Under -125)
Kansas City Chiefs 10.5 (Under -112)
Los Angeles Rams 10.5 (Under -112)
Los Angeles Chargers 10.5 (Under -143)
Denver Broncos 10.5 (Under -167)
SECOND TIER
Cincinnati Bengals 9.5 (Over -125)
San Francisco 49ers 9.5 (Over -167)
Baltimore Ravens 9.5 (Over -143)
Indianapolis Colts 9.5 (Over -143)
Tennessee Titans 9.5 (Under -111)
Arizona Cardinals 9.5 (Under -188)
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MID-LEVEL TIER
Philadelphia Eagles 8.5 (Over-167)
Miami Dolphins 8.5 (Over -143)
Minnesota Vikings 8.5 (Over -143)
Las Vegas Raiders 8.5 (Over -111)
New England Patriots 8.5 (Over -111)
WORK IN PROGRESS
New Orleans Saints 7.5 (Over -143)
Pittsburgh Steelers 7.5 (Over -125)
Washington Commanders 7.5 (Over -143)
New York Giants 7.5 (Under -143)
BOTTOM TIER
Detroit Lions 6.5 (Under -167)
Chicago Bears 6 (Over -143)
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.5 (Under -143)
Carolina Panthers 5.5 (Over -143)
New York Jets 5.5 (Over -167)
Atlanta Falcons 4.5 (Over -125)
Seattle Seahawks 5.5 (Over -143)
Houston Texans 4.5 (Over -143)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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