Bets and analysis for the second-round series openers between the top-seeded Heat and 76ers and No. 1 Suns and Mavericks.
The second round of the NBA playoffs tipped off Sunday and the second set of games begins Monday night.
Game 1 of 76ers-Heat is in the early slot. The focus on this matchup is the injury report—Joel Embiid and Kyle Lowry are both out for Game 1, at the very least.
Still, there’s plenty of star power beyond Philly’s MVP finalist big man and Miami’s veteran point guard.
The late game is the first in the Mavericks-Suns series. Dallas and Phoenix both got their injured stars back at the tail end of their first-round series victories, so both teams will be largely healthy for their semifinals clash.
Regular season record: 117-113-2
Play-in/playoffs record: 37-34
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No. 4 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 1 Miami Heat
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: 76ers +7.5 (-110) | Heat -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: 76ers (+275) | Heat (-350)
Total: Under 208.5 (-110) | Over 208.5 (-110)
The 76ers likely could not have beaten the Raptors in Round 1 without Embiid. Now, they have to take on the top-seeded Heat without their MVP finalist.
Embiid (orbital fracture, concussion) will miss the first two games of the series, at the very least—he will not travel to Miami for Game 1 or 2. But after the initial diagnosis was that Embiid would be out indefinitely, it came out Sunday that he could return when the series shifts to Philadelphia provided he clears concussion protocols.
Embiid is also dealing with a torn ligament in his thumb, which will require offseason surgery. He played through it against Toronto and will try to do the same versus Miami.
The Heat also have their share of injuries. Lowry (hamstring) has not played since Game 3 of the Hawks series and was ruled out for Game 1 against Philadelphia. Jimmy Butler (knee), who missed the closeout Game 5 against Atlanta, said he’s good to go Monday night, though Miami’s injury report doesn’t end there: Tyler Herro (illness), Caleb Martin (ankle), P.J. Tucker (calf) and Max Strus (hamstring) are all questionable.
The 76ers need the James Harden who showed up in Game 6 to replicate that play against the Heat. He tallied 22 points, six rebounds and 15 assists on better than 50% shooting in the closeout game. Harden had dismal shooting nights earlier in the series (5-17, 6-17, 3-9) and he will be relied on more for primary scoring with Embiid out.
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Philly went as Tyrese Maxey did in Round 1. In wins, Maxey averaged 26.3 PPG versus 11.5 on sub-40% shooting in losses. Doc Rivers also might have to play Georges Niang and Paul Reed big minutes to make up for Embiid’s absence against Bam Adebayo.
Philadelphia’s outside shooting (40.8% against the Raptors) will dictate its success against Miami’s stout defense—Maxey, Harden, Tobias Harris and Danny Green all averaged two-plus threes made per game.
Miami’s defense was especially impressive against the Hawks. It limited one of the best regular-season offenses and rendered Trae Young powerless to control the series with his shooting and distributing. That same swarming tactic could be used against Harden and Maxey, especially with Embiid out, though both players are considerably bigger than Young. The Heat have the No. 4 offensive rating in the playoffs without getting much from Adebayo or Herro—Butler, Strus and Oladipo (in Game 5) have led the charge on that end of the floor.
Unless the 76ers go nuclear from outside, Game 1 will be tough sledding for them. This is the perfect opportunity for Miami to get Adebayo going with Embiid sidelined and he’ll be able to help control the paint without much of an opposing threat down low. There will be more competitive games to come in this series, but I don’t expect this to be one. Butler will tee off against his old team and the Heat will roll.
BET: Heat -7.5 (-110); Jimmy Butler Over 23.5 Points (-118); 76ers Total Points Under 100.5 (-110)
Rick Bowmer/AP
No. 4 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 1 Phoenix Suns
Time: 10 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Mavericks +5.5 (-110) | Suns -5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Mavericks (+188) | Suns (-225)
Total: Under 214.5 (-110) | Over 214.5 (-110)
Devin Booker returned for Phoenix’s closeout Game 6 win against the Pelicans. He didn’t look himself—13 points on 5-12 shooting across 32 minutes—but it’s a good sign for him and the Suns that he returned quickly from his hamstring injury.
Luka Dončić returned from a calf injury in Game 4 versus the Jazz to help his team topple Utah in six games. He averaged 29 points and nearly 11 rebounds per game and Dallas needs him against the team that finished with the best record in the NBA.
Unlike the 76ers-Heat series, or even the Bucks-Celtics series, the stars on either side are largely healthy in this matchup.
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The Mavericks found a recipe for success against the Jazz and went to it often against a team with lesser perimeter defenders than the Suns. Phoenix, armed with Defensive Player of the Year finalist Mikal Bridges, defended the three ball relatively well against the Pelicans and was one of the best regular-season defenses at limiting opponents’ three-point percentage. Phoenix didn’t have any issues on offense in Round 1—Booker, Paul and Deandre Ayton all averaged better than 20 PPG and Bridges exploded for 31 in a critical Game 5 win.
The lapses the Suns had were primarily on defense. Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum and, at times, Jonas Valanciunas gave Phoenix fits. The Mavericks don’t have a rebounder like Valanciunas, but Dončić and Jalen Brunson could exploit the defense the way Ingram and McCollum did to great success.
I expect Dallas to keep Game 1 close. Phoenix swept the Mavericks in the regular season, though the most recent meeting came Jan. 20. The Pelicans showed that the Suns are beatable and Dallas, with a star like Dončić, can make that happen. I just think it might take a few games of poking and prodding before that success comes. Paul and Ayton are coming off the high of their combined near-perfect Game 6 performance and they can cover for Booker while he continues to work his way back to 100%. The Suns take Game 1, but the Mavs never really go away.
BET: Mavericks +5.5 (-110); Chris Paul Over 16.5 Points (-116); Deandre Ayton Over 18.5 Points (-110)
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