A former doormat takes its place among the elite while a gold-standard franchise looks primed for a plunge.
Everyone knows that things change fast in the NFL, but in the AFC North, roles reversed with stunning speed, and the Bengals were the main agents of change. After three consecutive last-place finishes, Cincinnati came within five minutes of a Super Bowl title in February. Their run was fueled first and foremost by Joe Burrow’s superstar sophomore season. He could be even better this year, because this spring the Bengals addressed their biggest weakness, a shaky offensive line, by adding three new starters in free agency: former Cowboys right tackle La’el Collins, former Bucs right guard Alex Cappa and former Patriots center Ted Karras. Along with fourth-round rookie Cordell Volson at left guard, the Bengals are likely to open the season with four new starters up front.
But Cincinnati’s defense played an oft-overlooked role last year. Coordinator Lou Anarumo effectively mixed coverages as the defensive line got it done behind two 2021 free-agent signings: edge rusher Trey Hendrickson and run stopper D.J. Reader. As long as the defense continues to hold its own, Cincinnati will head back to the postseason.
The presumed top challenger to the Bengals is the Ravens, a team that dealt with an absurd rash of injuries in 2021. Among them: Lamar Jackson was inactive for five games with an ankle injury, franchise left tackle Ronnie Stanley (also ankle) missed all but the season opener, ball-hawking cornerback Marcus Peters and the entire running back depth chart were lost for the season in August, and All-Pro CB Marlon Humphrey missed the final month of ’21.
Mike Macdonald, a longtime Baltimore assistant who spent last season at Michigan (under John Harbaugh’s brother, Jim), returns, now as defensive coordinator. Simply getting Humphrey and Peters back will make a big difference—as should the addition of former Saint Marcus Williams at safety. He should solidify a secondary that had a surprising number of coverage busts a year ago. Offensively, Jackson’s durability is a lingering question, but the bigger question is whether Baltimore’s passing offense will expand, especially after trading wideout Marquise Brown to the Cardinals in April. Baltimore needs Rashod Bateman, a 2021 first-round pick, to step up.
For the first time in nearly two decades, the Steelers will be breaking in a new quarterback, either free agent Mitchell Trubisky, signed from Buffalo, or first-round pick Kenny Pickett out of Pitt. Finding a successor for Ben Roethlisberger is the biggest question facing this team, but its run defense was stunningly leaky a year ago, a fact overshadowed by T.J. Watt’s NFL-record-tying 22.5-sack performance. Coach Mike Tomlin, new defensive coordinator Teryl Austin and new assistant head coach Brian Flores need to find a way to steady the front seven. The healthy return of Tyson Alualu and addition of ex-Bengal Larry Ogunjobi to the defensive line should be a step in the right direction.
Of course, the division’s biggest offseason change came in Cleveland, where the Browns traded a trove of draft picks to the Texans for—and awarded the largest guaranteed contract in league history to—Deshaun Watson despite accounts of sexual harassment and sexual assault against Watson from more than two dozen women in the massage therapy industry. With Watson facing an 11-game suspension to start the year, veteran backup Jacoby Brissett will lead a run-heavy offense, something he did capably during his lone season starting in Indianapolis in 2019. If the defense’s young back seven solidifies behind Myles Garrett & Co. up front, this might not be the lost season many expect in Cleveland.
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SI’S PROJECTED STANDINGS
1. Baltimore Ravens: 11–6
Best Case: This year health is on the Ravens’ side. The defensive backfield rebounds, and Jackson connects with a young receiving group to take the next step as a passer in his fifth season. Baltimore resumes its place among the bluebloods in the top-heavy AFC.
Worst Case: In an uncharacteristic twist, a Ravens defense is less than the sum of its parts, as the secondary is slow to jell. Too often, Baltimore falls behind early. The Ravens must scratch and claw each week simply to stay in the wild-card race.
2. Cincinnati Bengals: 11–6
Best Case: Last winter’s run was no fluke, as Burrow picks up where he left off and becomes the third Bengals QB (after Boomer Esiason and Ken Anderson) to capture NFL MVP honors. With the defense turning in a stout season, the AFC’s road to the Super Bowl runs through Cincinnati.
Worst Case: The wear and tear of last year’s 21-game slate shows up in injuries on defense, leading to weekly shootouts. Burrow provides enough firepower to keep Cincinnati alive, but the team must fight for its playoff life in season-ending home dates with Buffalo and Baltimore.
3. Cleveland Browns: 7–10
Best Case: Brissett gives the Browns steadier QB play than Baker Mayfield did a year ago. With the run game thriving behind Nick Chubb, and the defense taking another step up, the Browns stay in AFC North contention as the calendar flips to January.
Worst Case: A few close September losses snowball on a team full of distractions. The front office and coach Kevin Stefanski come under fire as another season unravels. The Browns miss the playoffs. And their high first-round pick in 2023? That belongs to Houston.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers: 6–11
Best Case: Unlike 2021, the defense is much more than just the T.J. Watt Show. With the revival on that side of the ball, and Pickett stepping in under center in October and thriving in a point-guard role, it’s a revival for the black and gold as they take back the AFC North crown.
Worst Case: The QB play is no better than it was with an aging Roethlisberger—Pickett doesn’t show coaches enough to get on the field, while Trubisky flashes ability but is erratic as usual. The run defense remains an issue, and the Steelers squander another year of Watt’s prime.
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