The Colts are the AFC South favorites at SI Sportsbook, while the Titans have won the division in back-to-back seasons. But is a sleeper lurking?
Based on the summer over/under win totals and division betting odds at SI Sportsbook, the Colts are the favorites to win the AFC South (+110) but their wins total over/under (9.5) is the same as the back-to-back division champion Titans (+150).
The Jaguars (+600) and Texans (+2500), based on the odds and their wins totals, project to have losing records with almost no chance to compete for the division title.
AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX
Houston comes into 2022 with below-par talent at the offensive skill positions. Davis Mills had some moments of success in his rookie season and his offensive line has a chance to be average. Unfortunately, the Texans’ defense has too many weak options in the starting lineup, making it challenging to close games in the fourth quarter.
On paper, Indy has the tools and stars to control the clock with their run game. Matt Ryan adds stability behind center, but he needs the Colts’ secondary receiving options to develop. Their defense played well at times last season despite lacking impactful depth in their starting lineup. I don’t expect Indianapolis to run and hide in their division despite having four favorable matchups against Houston and Jacksonville.
Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
The Jaguars have a chance to be more competitive this year if their two offensive studs (Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne) can reach their potential. They added multiple receiving options in the offseason and a new head coach. Even with a better offense, Jacksonville doesn’t have the defensive personnel to push beyond a .500 record in 2022. On the positive side, this franchise is moving in the right direction.
Tennessee overachieved last season (12-5) when considering its final offensive ranking in points (419 – 15th) and offensive yards (17th).
The loss of Derrick Henry for nine games contributed to their shortfall. The success of incoming rookie Treylon Burks and the health of Robert Woods sets the tone for their passing offense. Their offensive line should regress to the league average. The Titans have some pieces on defense with success last year versus the run. Their path to edging the Colts comes from the development of their young cornerbacks.
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When betting on a division winner, finding flaws in the odds is a must while also understanding the direction and potential of each team.
When the lights go on for the 2023 season, I expect the Jaguars to have the best quarterback and running back in their division, meaning both players excelled this upcoming season year. Also, stating that Etienne will be a better player than Jonathan Taylor is a bold statement. I’m a fan of Jacksonville’s new coaching staff, and they will steal some wins this season. For this combination of reasons, I’m banking that the Jaguars will win the AFC South with a handsome reward at +600 odds.
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
My rub for the Colts and Titans is that both teams don’t have enough of an edge on the offensive side of the ball to dominate in games over a 17-game schedule. So when asked to win tight matchups, both defenses will give away victories.
BET: Jaguars (+600)
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