Kansas City has owned this division in recent years, but big offseason moves have made it truly up for grabs.
The NFL’s division system in effect creates a collection of small economic markets. In the soft NFC East, for example, the level of competition means that it takes relatively little to become a division champion. The AFC West has become the polar opposite. Lately the Chiefs have had their way with this division, capturing the last six titles. But now every other opponent has assembled its own version of a superteam. Perhaps they were spurred on by the realization that Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is tied to the franchise through 2031, isn’t going anywhere, and they can’t simply wait until he’s gone.
Last year the Chargers showed they were ready to engage. Behind 24-year-old wunderkind quarterback Justin Herbert and 39-year-old rookie head coach Brandon Staley, they made a legitimate run at the playoffs, falling short in a 35–32 overtime loss to Las Vegas in the season finale. In the offseason Los Angeles addressed a defense that ranked 23rd in the league, signing two difference-makers in cornerback J.C. Jackson from the Patriots and edge rusher Khalil Mack from the Bears. Expect Mack and fellow edge rusher Joey Bosa to have plenty of meetings with the opposing quarterback.
The Raiders, after making the playoffs for the first time in five seasons, come back this year with new leadership after coach Jon Gruden was fired midway through the season in the wake of the release of old emails with incriminating comments. Las Vegas raided the Patriots, hiring longtime offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as coach and personnel executive Dave Ziegler as general manager. On the field the monster addition is Davante Adams, brought in from Green Bay in exchange for first- and second-round picks. It was a steep price, but Adams is arguably the best receiver in football—and a former Fresno State teammate of still-improving 31-year-old quarterback Derek Carr. On defense Las Vegas added veteran pass rusher Chandler Jones from the Cardinals to pair with Maxx Crosby, who signed a four-year, $94 million extension this offseason following his second-team All-Pro nod in 2021.
But the most seismic moves were made in Denver. The team replaced defensive-minded head coach Vic Fangio with Nathaniel Hackett, 42, a widely admired offensive mind who spent the past three seasons as the offensive coordinator of the Packers. While Hackett certainly benefited from working with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, he has had success in a variety of situations. In Jacksonville he helped a Blake Bortles-led team to the AFC championship game in 2017. At Syracuse, he produced the school’s first quarterback draft pick (Ryan Nassib in ’14) since Donovan McNabb in 1999. In Denver, Hackett will work with Russell Wilson, who won a Super Bowl eight years ago in Seattle and may or may not have forced his way out of town after growing stale in the ball-control offense of coach Pete Carroll.
Wilson is the real game-changer. If Hackett can rejuvenate the nine-time Pro Bowl QB—who last year endured his first career losing season—that will give Mahomes his greatest and most immediate foil and complete a revamping of the AFC West in which every team now has a fighting shot. And when you factor in that Mahomes will be lining up for the first time in his career without his favorite deep target, three-time All-Pro Tyreek Hill, who was traded to Miami, consider this market officially disrupted.
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SI’S PROJECTED STANDINGS
1. Kansas City Chiefs: 11–6
Best Case: The Chiefs don’t miss Hill one bit, which makes them feel great about the five picks they got in the deal. Former Steeler JuJu Smith-Schuster performs nicely in Hill’s place, while first-round picks CB Trent McDuffie and DE George Karlaftis enliven an already stout defense.
Worst Case: The Chiefs miss Hill in a way that suggests coach Andy Reid’s schemes need rare talent to work. Kansas City comes out of this season feeling the need to rebuild after seeing the team is too dependent on aging stars such as TE Travis Kelce (32) and DE Frank Clark (29).
2. Los Angeles Chargers: 11–6
Best Case: Herbert continues his rise, and their talented but aging receiving corps stays healthy. New personnel help Staley run the defense he envisions for Los Angeles, and not the version that buckled with a playoff berth on the line against the Raiders in Week 18.
Worst Case: Defensive additions fizzle as Jackson’s big year for the Patriots in 2021 looks like an outlier, and Mack, 31, is too old to make a difference. That is a problem both now and down the road, because the Chargers sacrificed draft capital and cap space to bring in those players.
3. Denver Broncos: 10–7
Best Case: Wilson leads the way as the Broncos’ offense goes from 23rd in scoring last year to top 10 in the NFL. With defensive backs Patrick Surtain II, Ronald Darby and Justin Simmons all healthy and playing full seasons, Denver also has a top-five defense.
Worst Case: It turns out Wilson’s struggles in 2021 were less about Seattle’s scheme and more about his limitations. Denver’s big acquisition on defense, ex-Cowboy edge rusher Randy Gregory (five years, $70 million), proves to be another misplaced bet.
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 9–8
Best Case: Thanks to new coach McDaniels and new target Adams, Carr throws for even more yards than last year while improving his TD-to-INT ratio (23–14 in 2021). Jones, as designed, pairs with Crosby to create a rush that flusters the division’s other quarterbacks.
Worst Case: McDaniels is, like every other Patriots assistant save for Bill O’Brien, unable to find his niche outside of the structure of the New England dynasty. Carr is fine compared to the rest of the NFL, but still looks like the fourth-best quarterback in this division.
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