Analysis and bets for all eight second-round games Saturday as eight teams will secure their spots in the Sweet 16.
Basketball is beginning to slow down. There's only eight games on deck today.
Each team has now gotten its tournament run underway and some stays (Kentucky, Iowa, UConn) were shorter than anticipated.
The field has been shortened to 32, but it’s still a packed day of basketball.
Just like Thursday and Friday, Matt Ehalt and I have picks for every single game. This time around, we're going a bit more in-depth on each game with fewer contests to focus on and each taking four games as opposed to writing dueling opinions for each.
Matt Ehalt record: 15-9
Kyle Wood record: 11-17
*Records through Virginia Tech-Texas. You can read their bets for Friday’s game here.
Check the Latest NCAA Tournament Odds and Lines from SI Sportsbook
Tony Gutierrez/AP
No. 1 Baylor (27-6) vs. No. 8 North Carolina (25-9)
Time: 12:10 p.m. ET | CBS
Spread: Baylor -5.5 (-110) | North Carolina +5.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Baylor (-250) | North Carolina (+195)
Over/Under: Under 148.5 (-110) | Over 148.5 (-118)
Kyle Wood's Bet: North Carolina +5.5
North Carolina put together perhaps the most soul-crushing performance of the day Thursday in a 95-63 thrashing of Marquette, a game that was supposed to be competitive. Baylor, for its part, blew out Norfolk State, also by 30-plus points.
The Tar Heels are in a good spot heading into their game against the No. 1 Bears, a seed they’re used to occupying. They’ve scored 80-plus points in four of their last six games and 90 or more in two of those (one being against Duke).
UNC is less proficient on defense, a weakness Baylor is bound to exploit with its fleet of guards. The Bears do have a highly rated defense, but an offense like North Carolina’s can at least keep pace, especially with its size inside. I think Baylor gets by and advances to the Sweet 16 but the Tar Heels keep it close.
No. 1 Kansas (29-6) vs. No. 9 Creighton (23-11)
Time: 2:40 p.m. ET | CBS
Spread: Kansas -11.5 (-118) | Creighton +11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Kansas (-699) | Creighton (+475)
Over/Under: Under 139.5 (-118) | Over 139.5 (-110)
Kyle Wood's Bet: Kansas -11.5
The Jayhawks accomplished what they were supposed to in an 83-56 win over Texas Southern in the opening round.
Now comes their first true test against a Creighton team that just upset San Diego State and got the best of one of the top scoring defenses in the country.
Kansas‘s offense has what it takes to get the best of the Blue Jays’ defense, beginning with star Ochai Agbaji. KU shoots and passes better than Creighton, which did much of its damage against SDSU from the free-throw line and lost its point guard Ryan Nembhard for the season. The Jayhawks consistently score in the high 70s and low 80s, even against some of the top defenses in the country in the Big 12.
Creighton won’t be able to keep up and Kansas will keep on marching.
Frank Franklin II/AP
No. 3 Tennessee (27-7) vs. No. 11 Michigan (18-14)
Time: 5:15 p.m. ET | CBS
Spread: Tennessee -6 (-118) | Michigan +6 (-110)
Moneyline: Tennessee (-275) | Michigan (+215)
Over/Under: Under 132.5 (+125) | Over 132.5 (-161)
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Tennessee -6
After 10 minutes of playing with their food, the Volunteers outscored Longwood 66-39 for the remainder of the game in a thorough beatdown. Michigan played inspired basketball—and finally hit some outside shots—for the final 20 minutes against Colorado State to get past the Rams. Tennessee won’t roll over like that.
The Volunteers’ big men will have their hands full with Hunter Dickinson in the paint, but Tennessee’s offense is fully capable of running with the Wolverines’, especially if Santiago Vescovi’s outside shot stays true.
Michigan is 3-7 against top-25 teams after its win over CSU (six of those losses came by eight or more points). The Volunteers are a top-five team that plays great basketball both ways. They can put the Wolverines away by a comfortable margin.
No. 4 Providence (26-5) vs. No. 12 Richmond (24-12)
Time: 6:10 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Providence -2.5 (-125) | Richmond +2.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Providence (-163) | Richmond (+130)
Over/Under: Under 134.5 (-118) | Over 134.5 (-110)
Kyle Wood's Bet: Providence -2.5
Defense isn't what earned the Friars a top-four seed, but it kept them dancing in the first round. Providence limited South Dakota State’s No. 2 scoring offense to a season-worst 57 points, won the battle on the boards and got contributions from its entire rotation. That should scare Richmond, which just shocked Iowa in a 12-5 upset.
The Spiders aren’t great on offense, and they didn’t need to be against the Hawkeyes, who were held 20 points below their season average.
This should turn out to be another low-scoring affair, and I like the Friars in that spot. They can slow things down with center Nate Watson and use their size advantage against the Spiders to work things inside and get to the free-throw line, one of Providence’s biggest strengths.
Darron Cummings/AP
No. 4 UCLA (26-7) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (26-7)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET | TBS
Spread: UCLA -2.5 (-125) | Saint Mary’s +2.5 (-105)
Moneyline: UCLA (-150) | Saint Mary’s (+120)
Over/Under: Under 126 (-110) | Over 126 (-118)
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: UCLA -2.5
These two teams had opposite performances in their opening games.
UCLA needed everything it had just to get by No. 13 Akron, while Saint Mary’s demolished a strong-defensive team in No. 12 Indiana. It feels like UCLA too often does not play to its full capabilities with such a strong roster.
The Bruins rank quite high at KenPom both offensively and defensively and they will need the offense to show up against Saint Mary’s No. 9 defense. Saint Mary’s held Indiana to just 53 points on 34 percent shooting, including 20 percent from deep.
UCLA can be a little iso-heavy with its offense, but this has the makings of a low-scoring affair. The NBA talent on UCLA’s roster like Johnny Juzang should make the difference here, and we’ll back the Bruins winning by more than one basket.
No. 7 Murray State (31-2) vs. No. 15 Saint Peter’s (20-11)
Time: 7:45 p.m. ET | CBS
Spread: Murray State -8.5 (-110) | Saint Peter’s +8.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Murray State (-400) | Saint Peter’s (+290)
Over/Under: Under 129.5 (-110) | Over 129.5 (-118)
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Saint Peter’s +8.5
We’re going to guess that most people didn’t have Saint Peter’s or Murray State in the Sweet 16, yet here we are after the Peacocks’ stunning upset of Kentucky.
I bet Saint Peter’s to cover against Kentucky—I didn’t expect a win—due to its stout defense, ranking 31st at KenPom. That keeps you in games agains better talent.
Murray State is no slouch either, ranking in the top 41 in both categories as of Friday afternoon. The Racers totaled 92 points against San Francisco, and have only lost two games. But they had some issues closing that game against an under-manned team.
This spread seems a little high for Murray State considering the momentum Saint Peter’s has in the spot. Let’s take the Peacocks to keep it tight, especially after watching how Murray State couldn’t put away San Francisco on Thursday.
Craig Mitchelldyer/AP
No. 4 Arkansas (26-8) vs. No. 12 New Mexico State (27-6)
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Arkansas -6.5 (-110) | New Mexico State +6.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Arkansas (-300) | New Mexico State (+230)
Over/Under: Under 138 (-110) | Over 138 (-118)
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Arkansas -6.5
Did New Mexico State play Thursday? I must have either missed that game or burned it from my memory. Weird.
The Aggies stunned Connecticut behind 37 points from Teddy Allen, who single-handedly dissected a UConn defense that normally is pretty good. It didn’t matter what UConn threw at Allen. He had an answer and kept scoring.
Arkansas, meanwhile, fended off a game Vermont team. The Razorbacks created some separation late before holding on.
This game feels like it’s going one of two ways: Allen has a repeat performance in another upset or Arkansas just cruises against a team that had its moment. My gut says if Arkansas wins, it’s going to be in the 15- to 20-point range.
And that’s what we’re betting will happen.
Expecting New Mexico State to shoot 64.7% from deep again isn’t reasonable. Arkansas runs a better offense than UConn, and should do a better job against Allen. The Aggies had their one shining moment and and their run ends Saturday.
No. 1 Gonzaga (27-3) vs. No. 9 Memphis (22-10)
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET | TBS
Spread: Gonzaga -10 (-118) | Memphis +10 (-110)
Moneyline: Gonzaga (-699) | Memphis (+475)
Over/Under: Under 154.5 (-118) | Over 154.5 (-110)
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Memphis +10
This feels way too easy, which has me nervous.
Memphis has been playing great basketball for a stretch now, and handled Boise State. The Tigers have a strong roster that did not play well early before finding their groove, and they have players like Jalen Duran who can match up with Gonzaga’s bigs.
Gonzaga apparently did not realize the tournament started until the second half of its game against Georgia State, although it did pull away in the second half.
Athletic teams have given Gonzaga troubles at times and Memphis can throw capable defenders at the Bulldogs’ frontline. A double-digit spread seems high for this game considering Memphis’ top-30 defense. Memphis keeps it close in a loss.
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