AL MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year Odds

Shohei Ohtani, Shane McClanahan and Julio Rodriguez enter the second half as the AL MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year favorites at SI Sportsbook, respectively.

As we head into the All-Star Break, it’s time to check in on values for the AL awards! There have been plenty of shifts since opening, and likely more to come with half a season of baseball still ahead. Let’s see if we can find some value.

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2022 American League MVP Odds

Shohei Ohtani -110
Aaron Judge +130 
Yordan Alvarez +1100
Mike Trout +1700
Rafael Devers +2000
Jose Ramirez +3500
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +5500

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It looks to be a two-man race between Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge as we head into the second half.

Ohtani, the reigning AL MVP, is the current favorite at -110 odds after opening the season at +350 odds. There’s not a lot of value in taking Ohtani now, but it’s hard to argue he won’t repeat as he’s again pitching at an elite level.

The two-way star now has four consecutive games with 10-plus strikeouts, and he owns a season ERA of 2.38 with a 0.99 WHIP. These numbers by themselves are impressive, but add to that 19 homers, 56 RBIs and 10 stolen bases, and the only thing working against him is well … the Angels (39-53, fourth place). 

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Judge actually mashed his way to the top of this list for a brief period before being passed by Ohtani. After a “mini-slump” that involved only hitting two homers to start July, Judge roared back by going 3-for-3 with two long balls Saturday night, tying Roger Maris’s franchise record for first-half homers with homers 32 and 33.

Judge leads the league with those 33 home runs and is tied for the highest fWAR. The Yankees have the best record in baseball (64-28) and are the favorites at SI Sportsbook to win the World Series at +350 odds. That certainly doesn’t hurt his chances. Judge opened the season at +1600 odds to win MVP.

Yordan Alvarez is the best pure hitter in this group, leading the league in wRC+ (197), OPS (1.058), and SLG (.653). He’s batting .306 with 26 homers, and he has a better OBP than Judge. He also plays for an Astros team likely to go deep into the postseason and that has a winning record against the Yankees this year.

That being said, I can’t see him overtaking Ohtani or Judge. Though, at +1100 odds, there’s not a lot to lose. 

Mike Trout still being this high on the list is a testament to how good he is even in a down year, but there’s no way he pulls this one off. Don’t pull this ticket.

Rafael Devers is tied for second in fWAR and is having a phenomenal season, and Jose Ramirez remains one of MLB’s best players. They are all deserving of this award, but it would take a pretty steep decline from Ohtani or Judge to make them winning bets. 

2022 American League Cy Young Odds

Shane McClanahan +210
Justin Verlander +275
Gerrit Cole +700
Shohei Ohtani +750
Dylan Cease +1000
Kevin Gausman +1400
Alek Manoah +1400

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Wow, has this field shifted!

Gerrit Cole, who entered the season as the +400 favorite, has fallen all the way to +700 odds. Shane McClanahan, who entered the year with +1600 odds, is now the favorite at +210 odds (and staring Tuesday’s All-Star Game).

This AL East flip-flop makes for a fun value proposition. Do you still believe Cole is the best pitcher in the AL East? If so, pull this ticket. Myself? I’m going to pass.

Justin Verlander has rocketed up to +275 odds after opening at +1600 odds. Luckily, I took him at +1600 odds because at +260 odds, I no longer see the value. 

I’m passing on Ohtani because—let’s face it—he’s probably the MVP.

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Dylan Cease is actually my favorite value on the board today.

Cease is still issuing too many free passes for my liking (the most in the league among qualified pitchers at 4.13 per nine), but you can’t argue with the results. He owns a 2.15 ERA (third-best in the AL), while striking out batters at a rate of nearly 13 per nine innings—the highest rate among the field. Cease entered the season at +1200 odds and still owns those odds though he’s exceeding expectations. I am all over this value.

2022 American League Rookie of the Year Odds

Julio Rodriguez -376
Jeremy Peña +750
Bobby Witt Jr. +1000
Adley Rutschman +2000
Joe Ryan +3300

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Julio Rodriguez is the heavy favorite for a reason.

Rodriguez leads the field in fWAR (2.9) and he’s batting .275 with 16 homers and 21 stolen bases. The Mariners are in the hunt for the wild card and he’s a big reason why. 

And, let’s face it, ousting two-time HR Derby champ Pete Alonso on his way to the Home Run Derby finals can’t hurt. Rodriguez opened the season at +600 odds.

I really like the value, though, for both Jeremy Pena and Bobby Witt, Jr. There’s still half of the season left and anything can happen.

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Jeremy Pena’s fWAR (2.7) is the next-best of the field, and he’s batting .263 with 13 homers and a lower strikeout rate than Rodriguez. He also has the advantage of playing for the likely AL West winners in the Astros. Pena had big shoes to fill replacing Carlos Correa, and he has performed remarkably.

If Pena turns it on down the stretch, I can see him snagging the award. He opened the year at +1100 odds.

Bobby Witt Jr. has also been on fire of late, batting .303 with two homers and 8 RBIs in July. Witt has 13 homers on the season with 17 stolen bases and a .254  average. Witt opened the season as the favorite at +300 odds, so +1200 is great value. 

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