Bets and analysis for Friday’s Astros-Royals, Padres-Brewers and Mets-Dodgers games.
Time to head into the weekend with our MLB bets!
We are off to a 21-13 start to the season at SI Sportsbook and 18 of those wins paid plus-money.
If you’re just starting to follow my MLB bets series, I try to only pick plus-money bets or bets with little juice. Our bankroll strategy is for wins to pay more than we invested. Sometimes that means the “risk” is higher, but so far our bankroll is very healthy.
You can also track my bets across all sports on Sharprank, an independent ranking system that aims gives transparency and integrity in the sports wagering space.
Our theme for Friday is “going under!” Let’s do this.
Bet on MLB Games at SI Sportsbook
John Hefti/AP
Astros (33-18) vs. Royals (16-33)
- Moneyline: Astros (-133) | Royals (+110)
- Run line: Astros -1.5 (+125) | Royals +1.5 (+125)
- Total: 8.5 - Under (+100) | Over (-118)
Speaking of full transparency, I am an Astros fan (insert trash can joke here).
Now that we got that out of the way….
Jose Urquidy (4-2, 4.80 ERA) gets the ball for Houston in Kansas City. Urquidy has been very Jekyll and Hyde, alternating strong starts with complete implosions. I am gambling we get a Jekyll performance tonight after he surrendered 12 hits and five earned runs in 4 2/3 to the Mariners in his last outing. I know, it’s a risk.
But, the good news is that even if we get Hyde, the Astros’ bullpen has the lowest ERA in the MLB at only 2.43, and across the past two weeks it’s even lower - 1.36.
View the original article to see embedded media.
Brady Singer (2-0, 2.49 ERA) gets the ball for the Royals. Singer has been strong since rejoining the rotation with two wins and 20 strikeouts across 19 2/3 innings.
Conversely, Kansas City’s bullpen has been one of the worst in the league by posting a 7.26 ERA across the past two weeks and a 4.79 ERA on the season.
It looks to me like the Royals could get some knocks early in this game, while the Astros could come back late. The Astros have allowed an average of just 1 run per game in close or late situations this season, while the Royals have scored just 0.9.
This is what I keep coming back to: The Astros have averaged a pathetic 2.75 runs per game across the past two weeks, while the Royals have averaged 4.08. On the season, the Astros have averaged 4.04 runs per game while the Royals have averaged 3.71.
Either way I add it up, it comes to under 8.5.
Players to watch
Andrew Benintendi is batting .318 on non-fastballs this season—tied for ninth-best in MLB. Opponents are hitting .359 against Urquidy’s non-fastballs this season – worst among starting pitchers with at least 23 innings pitched.
Yordan Alvarez leads the league with a 63.1% hard-hit percentage.
This game is set up for one team to have a big game, but I’ll take even money on the under. I think the visiting favorites win, but I don’t like the -133 payout enough.
BET: Under 8.5 (+100)
Morry Gash/AP
Padres (30-21) vs. Brewers (33-20)
- Moneyline: Padres (+130) | Brewers(-154)
- Run line: Padres +1.5 (-175) | Brewers -1.5 (+145)
- Total: 6.5 - Under (+100) | Over (-118)
This one is setting up to be a pitcher’s duel in Milwaukee.
Joe Musgrove (5-0, 1.86) will get the ball vs. reigning Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes (3-2, 1.95). It’s tough to bet against either of these pitchers. Burnes does have a slightly higher ERA at home (2.70), but Musgrove has a sub-two ERA on the road.
So, both pitchers are dialed in.
View the original article to see embedded media.
That leaves the hitting.
The Padres have scored just 3.5 runs per game across the past two weeks, while the Brewers have scored 4.2. The teams combined for nine runs Thursday.
Milwaukee’s relievers and San Diego’s relievers are both middle of the pack.
Players to watch
Manny Machado is an NL MVP favorite. He has a 50.3% hard-hit rate and he’s hitting .346.
Burnes is striking batters out at a rate of nearly 11 per nine innings.
Musgrove has surrendered only four home runs across nine starts in 2022.
I can’t pass up the plus-money on the under here with two Cy Young candidates on the bump. Yes, I know American Family Field is a hitter’s park.
Milwaukee has a home win percentage of .636, while San Diego is .583 on the road. The Brewers are rightfully the home favorite, but I can’t pass up +130 for the road dogs.
BETS: Under 6.5 (+100); Padres Moneyline (+130)
Mark J. Terrill/AP
Mets (35-18) vs. Dodgers (34-17)
- Moneyline: Mets (+130) | Dodgers (-154)
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (-154) | Dodgers -1.5 (+130)
- Total: 8.5 - Over (+105) | Under (-125)
The Mets and the Dodgers are two phenomenal and pretty equally matched teams, so how am I passing up +130 for the underdogs? After being shut out for the first time all season Thursday night, I think the Mets can make some noise.
Chris Bassitt (4-2, 3.66 ERA) gets the start for New York. Bassitt has been strong this season, limiting opponent's hard-contact.
The Mets’ bullpen has allowed an OPS of just .547 over the past week, and opponents are hitting just .130 (3 for 23) against Mets relief pitchers with RISP over the last week.
View the original article to see embedded media.
For the Dodgers, Tyler Anderson (6-0, 2.90 ERA) gets the ball. Anderson has been excellent since joining the rotation, walking only six batters across 49 2/3 innings pitched while striking out 48 batters.
The Dodgers’ bullpen has faltered over the last week, with an ERA of 4.18.
The Dodgers and the Mets are two of the top-scoring teams in the league, so either team could have a big day at the plate even with two strong pitchers getting the start.
I lean toward the under here in the game total, but the -125 odds doesn’t fit our bankroll strategy. There isn’t a strong enough argument for the under to pay the juice.
Players to watch
Mookie Betts has been on a tear, batting .310 with 16 homers and a 1.008 OPS. Eleven of those home runs have come vs. right-handed pitching.
Brandon Nimmo is batting .300 vs. southpaws this season. He’s also batting .305 in away games and he’s batting .313 in night games.
Pete Alonso is batting .268 with four home runs vs. left-handed pitching. He’s batting .319 with seven home runs with RISP.
The Mets have a 4.56 average runs per game vs. games started by southpaws, and I just believe. Give me the underdogs at +130.
BET: Mets Moneyline (+130)
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