Bears Over/Under Wins Total Betting Breakdown

Aug 24, 2022

The Bears have a new coach and GM and their over/under wins total at SI Sportsbook is just 6.5 wins, with the odds heavily juiced to the under.

The Bears' rebuild begins this season with a new coach and new general manager.

They do return the No. 11 overall pick from 2021 draft in Justin Fields, who will have to make do with one of the worst rosters in the league assembled around him.

Expectations for the coming season in Chicago are on the floor. The Bears, coming off their worst season since 2017, have one of the lowest over/under wins total in the NFL at SI Sportsbook with heavy juice on the under.

Talent remains in pockets across the roster—All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith is ending his hold-in, receiver Darnell Mooney posted 1,055 yards last year and there’s Fields, who flashed at points as a rookie—but the rest of the depth chart is not on par with the Packers, Vikings and even Lions in the NFC North, let alone the rest of the NFL.

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds
AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LV | LAC | DEN | Division Odds
NFC West Over/Under Wins Total: LAR | ARZ | SF | SEA | Division Odds
NFC North Over/Under Wins Total: GB | MIN

The defense has regressed each of the past three seasons since the Bears won the division in 2018, and the offense, armed with perhaps the worst receiving corps in the league, is incapable of compensating for deficiencies on the other side of the ball.

Maybe first-year head coach Matt Eberflus can turn things around in the Windy City. But the way he and general manager Ryan Poles approached the roster building—err, teardown—this offseason, they both seem to believe that will take a few years at least.

Chicago’s win total is set at 6.5 wins following a 6-11 season. After the offseason exodus of stars like Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and Allen Robinson, can the Bears improve on last year’s record or is six wins their ceiling?

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook

Chicago Bears Over/Under: 6.5 - O (+130) | U (-167)

2021-22 record: 6-11; Third NFC North; Missed playoffs
NFC North future odds: +1200 (Fourth)
NFC future odds: +5000 (Tied-13th)
Super Bowl future odds: +10000 (T-27th)

Key additions: DT Justin Jones, S Jaquan Brisker, CB Kyler Gordon, WR Byron Pringle
Key losses: LB Khalil Mack, WR Allen Robinson, DT Akiem Hicks, OT Jason Peters

Bear Digest offseason grade: C

GM Ryan Poles was unable to sign any marquee free agents to help QB Justin Fields. Poles had little cap space and no first-round draft pick. So, he simply cleared cap space and got rid of players who didn’t fit new offensive and defensive systems under coach Matt Eberflus. The goal was to have cap space next year and the Bears ($100 million) have the most of any team, so from this end the plan worked. For this season, their other goal was adding cheaper free agent starters on short-term contracts such as Justin Jones, Patrick, Morrow and Pringle, provided he is able to avoid further trouble with the law after an arrest on driving charges. Expect young players such as Brisker and Gordon to emerge quickly while both WR Darnell Mooney and TE Cole Kmet make more strides in Year 3. — Gene Chamberlain

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SCHEDULE

Week 1: 49ers
Week 2: At Packers
Week 3: Texans
Week 4: At Giants
Week 5: At Vikings
Week 6: Commanders
Week 7: At Patriots
Week 8: At Cowboys
Week 9: Dolphins
Week 10: Lions
Week 11: At Falcons
Week 12: At Jets
Week 13: Packers
Week 14: Bye
Week 15: Eagles
Week 16: Bills
Week 17: At Lions
Week 18: Vikings

The Bears went 2-4 in NFC North play a season ago and both wins came against the lowly Lions. That’s unlikely to repeat this season as Chicago, not Detroit, is expected to be the doormat of the division.

Green Bay and Minnesota both took both games last season by at least two scores and it’s difficult to see those outcomes changing much in 2022. As high as many people are on the Lions, it’s fair to call that a split. Chicago is a narrow favorite in the Week 10 meeting at Soldier Field. Make that a 1-5 finish against the NFC North.

A draw against the NFC East would generally be a plus for some teams, but it likely won’t add many wins to the Bears’ schedule. Chicago gets the Commanders and Eagles at home and the Giants and Cowboys on the road and is an underdog in each game. You can pencil in losses to Philadelphia and Dallas, though New York and Washington present relatively easier challenges.

For what it’s worth, the Bears beat the Giants, 29-3, in Week 17 last season. There’s potential for two wins against the NFC East but I’m doubtful it happens. Let’s call the Commanders game a loss and the Meadowlands trip a win to bring the record to 2-8.

The other two NFC opponents are the 49ers and Falcons. San Francisco heads to Chicago for the opener as a touchdown favorite, which already looks like perhaps the most enticing Week 1 spread. A late November trip to Atlanta is a pick’em—I’ll call that a win for Chicago. Now we’re at 3-9 with the AFC slate remaining.

The Bears face the AFC East, home of three hopeful playoff teams, including the Super Bowl favorite. Games against the Bills, Patriots and Dolphins are all projected losses.

Then, there’s the Jets. New York is a narrow home favorite, but let’s give Chicago the edge in that meeting.

The last remaining game is perhaps the most winnable on the Bears’ schedule: A home bout with the Texans. Chicago is favored by a field goal and I feel confident enough to pencil in a victory.

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That brings the Bears’ record to 5-12, which would be their fewest wins since 2017 and worst winning percentage since 2016. More importantly, it gives us room for error on the under. Even if Chicago steals an unexpected game against, say, the Commanders, or records another division win, that still only brings it to six wins.

Confidently bet the Bears under this season.