SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo breaks down three betting plays for Friday's first round of the 2021 NCAA men's tournament.
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2021 NCAA tournament Friday betting preview
With the Field of 68 now set, SI Gambling is here to highlight three key matchups on tap for Friday in the NCAA men’s tournament: No. 5 Tennessee and No. 12 Oregon State, No. 8 North Carolina against No. 9 Wisconsin, and No. 3 Arkansas taking on No. 14 Colgate.
Over the last two tournaments, the teams with a better seed have gone 43-21 straight-up (67%) but only 21-38-1 against the spread (36%) in the Round of 64. Over the last 10 tournaments, the No. 5 seed holds a 24-16 (60%) SU record over the No. 12 seed, while a No. 14 seed has upset a No. 3 seed SU in seven of the last 10 tournaments. Several games involving those seeds have already received attention from sharp bettors in Las Vegas for Friday.
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Let’s dive into the games!
No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 14 Colgate
Spread: Colgate +9 (-110) | Arkansas -9 (-110)
Total: 162.5 – Over (-110) | Under 162.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Colgate +300 | Arkansas -385
Game Info: Saturday, March 19, 2021 12:45 pm EST / 9:45 am PST | truTV
Site: Bankers Fieldhouse
Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has held steady from the opening line displaying No. 3 Arkansas (22-6 SU; 17-9-1 ATS) as 9-point favorites over No. 14 Colgate (14-1 SU; 10-5 ATS) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Arkansas has ripped off nine wins in their last 10 games, covering the spread in eight games over that span (8-2 ATS). The Razorbacks played two games in the SEC tournament defeating Missouri 70-64, before being upset by LSU 78-71, as 3.5-point favorites. Arkansas has been ultra impressive, posting a 12-2 SU record that has resulted in a financial windfall for their backers at 10-4 ATS over that span. The Razorbacks are led by freshman point guard Moses Moody (17.4 points per game).
On the other side, Colgate heads into the NCAA tournament having won 13 consecutive games. From a betting perspective, the Raiders have been a tremendous team for bettors to back posting a 9-4 ATS mark over that span. In the Patriot League tournament, Colgate outscored their three opponents by a margin of 267-216. The Raiders are led in scoring by senior guard Jordan Burns (17.0 points per game) who runs the offense.
The early sharp money in Las Vegas is once again grabbing the points with the underdog. Back Colgate to keep this one within the posted number.
Note: This game has seen significant steam to the ‘over’ seeing a five-point move from it’s opening number on the total (see below).
Frankie Whispers FREE Play: Colgate +9 (-110)
Men's March Madness Expert Picks and Predictions
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Oregon State
Spread: Oregon State +7.5 (-110) | Tennessee -7.5 (-110)
Total: 131.5– Over (-110) | Under 131.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Oregon State +275 | Tennessee -345
Game Info: Saturday, March 19, 2021 4:30 pm EST / 1:30 pm PST | TNT
Site: Bankers Fieldhouse
Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has dropped since its opening in favor of No. 5 Tennessee (18-8 SU; 13-12-1 ATS) as 9-point favorites in several shops in Las Vegas over No. 12 Oregon State (17-12 SU; 18-9-1 ATS) to a line now reflecting the Volunteers at -7.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Volunteers will be looking for their fourth win in their last six games when they take on Oregon State. Tennessee will need to rely upon leading scorer Jaden Springer (12.5 points per game) and projected NBA Lottery pick Keon Johnson (11.2 points per game). The Volunteers have been too inconsistent to trust over the past month going 2-3-1 against the spread (ATS) over their past six games.
Meanwhile, Oregon State has won six out of their last seven games. The Beavers, who won the Pac-12 Championship - 70-69 over Colorado - have been a great team for bettors to support posting an amazing 9-1 ATS mark over their last 10 games. Oregon State has also been great for total bettors playing a perfect 6-0 to the ‘over’ in it’s last six contests.
The early sharp money in Vegas is backing the Beavers and grabbing the points in Friday’s First Round matchup. Although Tennessee plays in the better conference (SEC) this is simply too many points. Grab the points with the Beavers.
Frankie Whispers FREE Play: Oregon State +7.5 (-110)
No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 9 Wisconsin
Spread: Wisconsin +2 (-115) | North Carolina -2 (-105)
Total: 139.5– Over (-110) | Under 139.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Wisconsin +108 | UNC -128
Game Info: Saturday, March 19, 2021 7:10 pm EST / 4:10 pm PST | CBS
Site: Mackey Arena
Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has ticked up slightly from the opening line of -1 to a spread of -2 points in favor of No. 8 North Carolina (18-10 SU; 13-13-2 ATS) over No. 9 Wisconsin (17-12 SU; 12-15-2 ATS) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
North Carolina has reeled off three wins in their last four games, covering the line in all three of their victories (3-0-1 ATS). The Tar Heels played three games in the ACC tournament pummeling Notre Dame 101-59 and defeating Virginia Tech 81-73 - before bowing out to Florida State 69-66. The Tar Heels are led by freshman point guard Caleb Love (10.5 points per game) who also is active on defense ranking second on the club in steals (34) as well as star sophomore forward Armando Bascot (12.3 points per game / 8.0 rebounds).
On the flip side, Wisconsin limps into the NCAA Tournament having lost four of their last five and seven of their last 10 games. Against the spread, the Badgers have burned bettors posting a 3-6-1 ATS mark over those 10 games. In the Big Ten Tournament, Wisconsin got by Penn State 75-74 before being knocked out by Iowa 62-57. However, the Badgers have kept it close only losing their last four games by a combined 18 points (4.5 points per game).
Both of these clubs have been difficult for bettors to trust at the windows this year, but the edge here goes to the team who has played in a tougher conference (Big Ten) all season long. Grab the small number with Wisconsin.
Frankie Whispers FREE Play: Wisconsin +2 (-115)
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NCAA men's tournament first round line movement
(These moves are being tracked from the opening lines supplied by Circa Sports)
First Round Totals
No. 3 Arkansas (-8.5) vs. No. 14 Colgate (157.5)
The projected total rose five points to 162.5
No. 2 Ohio State (-17) vs. No. 15 Oral Roberts (154.5)
The line moved up two points at 156.5
No. 5. Tennessee (-9) vs. No. 12 Oregon State (136)
The over/under fell four points to 132
No. 4 Oklahoma State (-8) vs. No. 13 Liberty (146.5)
The over/under dropped four points at 142.5
No. 7 Clemson (+2) vs. No. 10 Rutgers (133.5)
The over/under dropped seven points to 126.5
First Round Side Movement
No. 8 Loyola - Chicago (‘PK) vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech (128.5)
The side for Loyola - Chicago moved from a pick 'em to -2
No. 5. Tennessee (-9) vs. No. 12 Oregon State (136)
The side moved 1.5 points in favor of Oregon State (+7.5)
Is there an advantage or disadvantage to playing at Lucas Oil Stadium?
In 2021, NCAA men's tournament games are being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in nearly all rounds (except for the Sweet 16). These larger sites are “normally” reserved for only the Final Four and championship games.
Historically, these sites can cause issues with sight lines and depth perception for players not used to shooting in arenas designed for football. Often times it can lead to shooting woes, such as former Oklahoma Sooners star Buddy Hield's Final Four performance at NRG Stadium in Houston - 4 of 12 FG's / 1 of 8 from 3-point range - in Villanova's 95-51 win in 2016.
How are oddsmakers and bettors approaching first round game totals designated to be played at Lucas Oil Stadium?
No. 1 Baylor (-24.5) vs. No. 16 Hartford (142.5)
The total amount dropped two points to 140.5
No. 4 Purdue (-8) vs. No. 13 North Texas (126.5)
No change
No. 3 West Virginia (-10.5) vs. No. 14 Morehead State (140.5)
The total fell two points to 138.5
No. 8 Oklahoma (-2) vs. No. 9 Missouri (141.5)
The total fell one point to 140.5
No. 5 Creighton (-8) vs. No 12. UC Santa Barbara (140.5)
The total amount dropped 2.5 points to 138
No. 3 Texas (-9) vs. No. 14 Abilene Christian (140.5)
No change
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