Plus, Conference Championship spreads, USA-Netherlands World Cup preview and more.
The Bills entered the season as Super Bowl favorites, but that's no longer the case. The AFC-leading Chiefs (+400) passed Buffalo (+450) this week and now have the shortest odds to win it all.
Patrick Mahomes is also a minus-money favorite to win his second MVP at SI Sportsbook, while Josh Allen's odds continue to slip.
A rocky month put a dent in the Bills' betting futures, but they are still favored to win in New England this evening as they fight the Dolphins for first place in the AFC East.
In today's Winners Club, you'll find:
- BUF-NE betting preview and picks
- SI Sportsbook's Perfect 10 Contest
- Week 13 fantasy football rankings
- USA-Netherlands World Cup preview
- CFB conference championship picks and lines
Bills in Search of Third Win in a Row Against Patriots
8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The AFC East has been one of the toughest divisions in the NFL this season, and two teams are jockeying for position meet at a pivotal point to begin Week 13. Buffalo, which has won two in a row heading into Thursday, is a road favorite against New England, which is coming off a loss to Minnesota. Both teams played on Thanksgiving last week, so this isn't as quick a turnaround as it would have been if they had suited up on Sunday.
The Bills and Patriots both employ two of the better-scoring defenses in the league, though Buffalo backs that up on the other side of the ball with a high-scoring offense. New England's defense will be hard-pressed to contain quarterback Josh Allen, who authored a near-perfect game when these teams last met. Meanwhile, Mac Jones is coming off his best game of the season against the Vikings, where he threw for nearly 400 yards.
Jamie Germano / USA TODAY NETWORK
Frankie Taddeo has an in-depth betting preview of the BUF-NE prime-time matchup and his pick, plus three player props he likes in the contest. And Albert Breer, Jen Piacenti and Michael Fabiano got together to break down the game from every angle.
Some things you should know:
- The Bills have outscored the Patriots by a combined 42 points (80-38) over their last two meetings, including last season's Wild Card matchup.
- The Patriots are 6-2 against the spread over their last eight games.
- Buffalo opened as a 5.5-point favorite, but that line has dropped to just over a field goal in favor of the road team.
- The Bills are 1-4 against the spread over their last five games.
- New England OT Trent Brown is questionable with an illness, and receiver Jakobi Meyers is questionable with a shoulder injury.
Pick 10 games against the spread this week to participate in SI Sportsbook's Perfect 10 contest for a shot at a $10,000 prize. The entire betting breakdown of the Week 13 slate can be found here. Quite a few key division games are going on, but I'm looking at the Chiefs-Bengals AFC Championship Game rematch in Cincinnati.
Get your NFL Tickets for Week 13 with SI Tickets
Fantasy Football Week 13 Prep
Only the Cardinals and Panthers are on bye, so your fantasy roster shouldn't be missing much this week.
This week's biggest wrinkle is the return of Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson, who will be playing for the first time since January 2021. His first game back from an 11-game suspension for sexual misconduct stemming from more than two dozen lawsuits—nearly all of which have been settled—is against his former team, the Texans.
Beyond that, our experts have their usual recommendations, projections and more to help set your best possible lineup for this week as the playoffs approach.
Start 'Em, Sit 'Em
Quarterbacks: You can count on Jimmy Garoppolo at home against the Dolphins.
Running backs: Stay away from Alvin Kamara on the road in Tampa.
Wide receivers: With Mike White under center, Garrett Wilson needs to be in lineups.
Tight ends: Don't rely on Tyler Higbee this week, even against Seattle.
Kickers and defenses: The Ravens have a great matchup versus the Broncos at home.
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Positional Rankings
Quarterbacks: Lamar Jackson is a mid-tier QB1 up against Denver's defense.
Running back: Both backs in the Chargers-Raiders game are high-end options.
Wide Receivers: Chris Godwin ranks a few spots ahead of Mike Evans this week.
Tight ends: Even with a quarterback change, David Njoku is a reliable choice.
Flex: Rhamondre Stevenson is one of the top flex plays for Week 13, full stop.
Defenses: The Browns should be serviceable on the road against the Texans.
Kickers: Both kickers in the KC-CIN game are among the best plays.
Stat Projections
Quarterbacks: Mike White is projected for better than 20 points versus the Vikings.
Running backs: Rachaad White is in line for one of his best outings of the year.
Wide receivers: Amon-Ra St. Brown has the highest projection among receivers.
Tight ends: Dawson Knox is projected to outscore Travis Kelce this week.
United States to Face Netherlands in Knockout Stage
On Tuesday, the U.S. men's national team defeated Iran, 1-0, to advance to the Round of 16 against the Netherlands.
Christian Pulisic, who was injured in the process of scoring the game's deciding goal, said he is "doing everything in my power to be able to be out there on the field on Saturday."
The Netherlands is a -110 favorite to win at SI Sportsbook. A U.S. win would pay out at +300, and a full-time draw is +215. Jen Piacenti previewed the match, which begins Saturday at 10 a.m. ET on Fox.
Ashley Landis/AP
The scoreboard for the entire Cup can be found here. The Group Stage continues Thursday and Friday, with a handful of spots in the knockout stage still up for grabs.
Conference Championship Clashes to Decide CFP
A lot can change depending on the outcomes of this weekend's conference title games.
If the favorites win, the College Football Playoff will match the top four teams heading into the week: Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC. But this is college football we're talking about, where upsets are commonplace.
No. 5 Ohio State and No. 6 Alabama—both idle this week—are waiting in the wings hoping for mayhem to allow them to sneak into the top four.
Pat Forde previewed the conference championship slate and made his picks for each contest.
Pac-12 Championship
Friday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox): No. 11 Utah vs. No. 4 USC (-2.5)
The Utes handed the Trojans their only loss this season back in October in Salt Lake City by one point. They meet again at a neutral site with a playoff berth on the table for USC.
Big 12 Championship
12 p.m. ET (ABC): No. 10 Kansas State vs. No. 3 TCU (-2.5)
The Horned Frogs held off the Wildcats earlier this year, 38-28, at home. TCU stormed back from a 28-17 halftime deficit and shut out Kansas State in the second half.
SEC Championship
4 p.m. ET (CBS): No. 14 LSU vs. No. 1 Georgia (-17.5)
The Tigers and Bulldogs last met in the 2019 SEC Championship, which LSU won 37-10 en route to its national title. UGA could likely afford a loss and still end up among the top four teams.
Rogelio V. Solis/AP
AAC Championship
4 p.m. ET (ABC): No. 22 UCF vs. No. 18 Tulane (-4)
The Knights beat the Green Wave, 38-31, just a few weeks ago in New Orleans. UCF is going for its third AAC crown, and Tulane is going for its first.
Big Ten Championship
8 p.m. ET (Fox): Purdue vs. No. 2 Michigan (-17)
The Boilermakers and Wolverines did not meet in the regular season and have not played one another since 2017. Michigan is going for its second straight Big Ten title.
ACC Championship
8 p.m. ET (ABC): No. 9 Clemson (-7.5) vs. No. 23 North Carolina
The Tigers and Tar Heels did not play in the regular season and have not met since 2019. Clemson's Week 13 loss to South Carolina knocked it out of playoff contention.
College Football Playoff Odds
Georgia: -150
Michigan: +275
Ohio State: +850
TCU: +850
USC: +900
Alabama: +8000
In Other News
NFL Week 13 Straight-Up Picks: See which way the MMQB staff is leaning for this week's 15-game slate, which begins Thursday with Bills-Patriots. Only one writer picked New England, a home dog.
Dynasty Stock Watch: Get the temperature on the Jets quarterback room and find out what to do with Zach Wilson and Mike White, depending on your team's short- and long-term goals.
Yankees Offered Judge About $300 Million: New York reportedly offered the All-Star outfielder an eight-year deal worth nearly $300 million, which would pay Judge around $37.5 million annually. Other teams are in the mix to sign the AL MVP.
Thanks for reading Winners Club! I'll talk to you again Sunday morning. Until then.