The Bills are large road favorites on Thanksgiving against the Lions.
Josh Allen and the high-powered Bills are the appetizer for NFL fans on Thanksgiving Day, kicking off the Week 12 three-game holiday slate when they head to Ford Field to square off with Jared Goff and the surging Lions.
Buffalo is 3-2 straight-up (SU) and 2-2-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road this season and aims to earn a victory for the second consecutive week at Ford Field. The Bills defeated the Browns at Ford Field in Week 11 after a a massive snowstorm in upstate New York forced Sunday’s game to be moved.
The Lions have won three consecutive games both SU and ATS over the Packers, Bears and Giants and look to end a streak of futility on Thanksgiving. Detroit owns a 37-43-2 (.462) record on Turkey Day and has lost five consecutive games (0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS) dating back to 2017.
Buffalo is 5-4-1 in its history on Thanksgiving and owns a two-game winning streak on America’s favorite football holiday with Allen under center, previously beating the Saints last season as well as the Cowboys back in 2019.
Detroit has been an underdog in nine out of ten games but has thrived in that role, posting a 6-3 ATS mark.
Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions Odds
- Spread: Buffalo -9 (-110) | Detroit +9 (-110)
- Moneyline: BUF (-400) | DET (+310)
- Total: 53.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
- Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: BUF 48% | DET 52%
- Game Info: Nov. 24, 2022 | 12:30 p.m. ET | CBS
Bills Straight-Up Record: 7-3
Bills Against The Spread Record: 5-4-1
Lions Straight-Up Record: 4-6
Lions Against The Spread Record: 6-4
Bet on Bills-Lions at SI Sportsbook
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
The line has held steady since its opening of Buffalo as a nine-point road favorite over Detroit at SI Sportsbook. The game total has witnessed solid steam in early wagering, pushing the opening number of 52.5 up to 53.5.
The Bills possess the NFL’s third-best aerial attack, averaging 283.4 passing yards per game, and face Detroit’s fifth-worst passing defense that allows 262.2 passing yards per game to quarterbacks. Buffalo needs to involve Gabe Davis more in the red zone, as the talented wideout has just one touchdown over his last four games.
Buffalo finds a favorable ground matchup. The Bills possess the league’s ninth-best rushing attack (134 yards per game) and encounter Detroit’s 31st-ranked run defense that surrenders 153.7 yards per game. Devin Singletary has three rushing touchdowns in his last two games and is poised to find paydirt once again versus a defense that has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns to running backs this season.
Josh Allen has only thrown two touchdowns over his last three games and should post solid production against a Lions’ secondary that has surrendered 16 passing scores to quarterbacks in 2022. The dual-threat talent could also find success using his legs against a Detroit defense that allowed three rushing scores to Justin Fields and Daniel Jones in the last two games.
D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams have combined for 17 touchdowns and find an enticing matchup against a Bills’ defense that has surrendered four rushing touchdowns to running backs over the last three weeks. For player proposition bettors, Williams, who leads the NFL in touchdowns (12), will be an attractive leg to use in Same-Game Parlays (SGP) in his ‘Anytime Touchdown’ market.
Goff has thrived at home this season, throwing 86.7% of his touchdowns (13/15) in front of Lions Nation. Respected money believes Detroit has enough balance both in the air and on the ground to stay within this big number. Grab the healthy amount of points on a live home underdog in a potential high-scoring affair.
BETS: LIONS +9 (-110)
Trends
- Detroit is 3-0 ATS over its three-game winning streak
- The under is 7-3 in Buffalo’s ten games this season
- The over is 7-3 in the Lions’ ten games in 2022
- The Bills are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings with the Lions
- Detroit is 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS over its last five Thanksgiving Day games
2022 SI Betting Thursday Night Football: 18-24-1+ Props -3.25 U
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 25-20 ATS + Props +5.75 U
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 8-7-1 ATS + Prop Wagers +4.00 U
2021 SI Betting NFL Football: 53-44-1 ATS + Props +14.22 U
2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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