A best bet for Thursday’s AFC East clash between the Bills and Patriots. The Bills are small road favorites.
Josh Allen and the Bills head to Gillette Stadium in Week 13 for a pivotal AFC East showdown with Mac Jones and the Patriots under the prime-time lights of Thursday Night Football.
Buffalo is 4-2 straight-up (SU) and 2-3-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road this season and aims to extend its two-game winning streak. The Bills, who beat the Lions, 28-25, on Thanksgiving, look to earn a much-needed victory in a tightly contested division that finds all four teams above .500 and in playoff contention.
New England is 6-2 ATS (75%) over its last eight games and will attempt to rebound from a Thanksgiving loss at Minnesota. Jones threw for a career-high 382 yards and tossed multiple touchdowns for the first time this season in the loss.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Odds
- Spread: Buffalo -3.5 (-118) | New England +3.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: BUF (-200) | NE (+165)
- Total: 43.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
- Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: BUF 63% | NE 37%
- Game Info: Dec. 1, 2022 | 8:15 p.m. ET | Amazon Prime
Bills Straight-Up Record: 8-3
Bills Against The Spread Record: 5-5-1
Patriots Straight-Up Record: 6-5
Patriots Against The Spread Record: 6-4-1
The line has dropped since opening with Buffalo as a 5.5-point road favorite over New England at SI Sportsbook to only a 3.5-point demand. The game total has ticked down from the opening number of 44 to 43.5.
The Bills possess the NFL’s third-best aerial attack averaging 279.2 passing yards per game and encounter New England’s ninth-ranked passing defense allowing just 195.5 passing yards per game to quarterbacks. Buffalo needs to find a way to get more consistency from its starting wide receiver tandem of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Over the past two games, neither elite talent has led the club in receiving as that honor has gone to tight end Dawson Knox and slot wideout Isaiah McKenzie. Despite winning both of those games, the Bills’ offense is working at its peak when Diggs and Davis lead the way.
Devin Singletary has three rushing touchdowns over his last three games and could struggle to add to his scoring total versus a Patriots’ defense that has only allowed two touchdowns to backs this season - both against the Bears in Week 7.
Jamie Germano / USA TODAY NETWORK
Rhamondre Stevenson leads the Patriots in receptions (50) and finds an enticing matchup against a Bills’ defense that has surrendered five touchdowns to backs over the last four games. For player proposition bettors, Stevenson, who is averaging 6.6 receptions over his last five games, is an attractive player to target in receiving props - especially with Damien Harris (thigh) likely to miss the game.
Bettors find a familiar number being posted by oddsmakers in regards to the game total in this matchup since 43.5 was also the line for the second meeting last season (Week 16) as well as the wild-card playoff tilt. The teams combined for 54 and 64 points, respectively, in those games.
Respected money believes that this AFC East rivalry offers solid value by investing in a two-game teaser by pushing the Patriots up to a double-digit home underdog, as well as bringing the total down and backing the ‘over’.
BET: Two-team seven-point teaser - Patriots +10.5/Over 36.5 (-120)
Trends
- The Bills are only 1-4 ATS over their last five games in 2022
- New England is 7-3 ATS over its last 10 home games at Gillette Stadium
- The under is 8-3 in Buffalo’s 11 games this season
- The Bills are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in the last four meetings with the Patriots
2022 SI Betting Thursday Night Football: 20-26-1+ Props -3.95 U
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 25-20 ATS + Props +5.75 U
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 8-7-1 ATS + Prop Wagers +4.00 U
2021 SI Betting NFL Football: 53-44-1 ATS + Props +14.22 U
2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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