Target these three player props for Thursday’s Bills-Patriots clash at Gillette Stadium.
Week 13 kicks off Thursday night with a AFC East tilt between the Bills and Patriots. As fantasy football managers jockey for playoff seeds, player proposition bettors search for which skill position players offer the best value to invest in.
Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox, Rhamondre Stevenson, Nick Folk, Tyler Bass as well as both defensive units will be starting in the majority of fantasy leagues.
Buffalo’s third-ranked aerial attack averaging 279.2 passing yards per game faces New England’s ninth-ranked passing defense allowing 195.5 passing yards per game.
Mac Jones threw for a career-high 382 yards and tossed multiple touchdowns for the first time this season versus the Vikings on Thanksgiving and finds an enticing matchup against a Bills’ defense that has surrendered an average of 269.3 passing yards as well as 11 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks over the last six games.
If you are opposed to wagering on the side or total, backing players from your own fantasy team to surpass their projections of score a touchdown can often result in an extremely profitable return on investment. Respected money in Las Vegas has targeted two skill position players to outperform oddsmakers’ expectations.
Let’s take a deeper look at where they made investments!
David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Player Props
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Stevenson leads the Patriots in receptions (50), finds an enticing matchup against a Bills’ defense that has surrendered five touchdowns to running backs over the last four games. However, since he is one of the few players listed with prohibitive odds of -120, the versatile back is a hard pass in his ‘Anytime Touchdown’ market.
Instead, respected money is investing in Stevenson’s pass-catching skills. The second-year back averaged 6.6 receptions over his last five games and will receive the bulk of the work with Damien Harris (thigh) sidelined. Oddsmakers list the former Oklahoma standout’s receiving yards at 35.5 yards, a projection he has surpassed in four of his last five games. The hard-running back finds a favorable matchup he should exploit against a Buffalo defense that is surrendering 4.82 receptions and 33.7 receiving yards per game to backs this season.
Rhamondre Stevenson Longest Reception OVER 14.5 Yards (-125)
Respected money has made Stevenson a ‘double-pop’ investment, targeting his longest reception market listed at 14.5 yards juiced to the over at -125 odds. The Patriots’ featured back has eclipsed this projection in four of his last five games with receptions of 40, 15, 5, 22 and 20. Buffalo has allowed 34 skill players to haul in passes of longer than 14.5 yards this season, including four pass-catching backs in J.K. Dobbins (20), Jerick McKinnon (19), Dalvin Cook (15) and Nick Chubb (26).
Josh Allen OVER 42.5 rushing yards (-125)
Allen ranks fourth in the NFL rushing yards (561) and he should add to that total Thursday. In six ‘true’ road games this season, the dual-threat quarterback has surpassed this projection of 42.5 rushing yards five times. Hitting at a 83.3% clip, Allen has garnered the attention of respected money in a matchup against a division rival he has found success against on the ground by posting 60-plus rushing yards in consecutive meetings. The Patriots have already allowed the top two rushing quarterbacks—Lamar Jackson (107) and Justin Fields (82)—to find supreme rushing production this season. Look for Allen to join them and easily outperform this number.
PROP BETS
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots: Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots: Over 14.5 Longest Reception (-125)
Josh Allen, QB, Bills: Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
2022 SI Betting Thursday Night Football: 20-26-1+ Props -3.95 U
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 25-20 ATS + Props +5.75 U
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 8-7-1 ATS + Prop Wagers +4.00 U
2021 SI Betting NFL Football: 53-44-1 ATS + Props +14.22 U
2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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