Best bets and analysis for Thursday’s season-opening game between the Bills and defending Super Bowl champion Rams
The 2022 NFL season kicks off on Thursday Night when Matthew Stafford and the Super Bowl champion Rams host Josh Allen and the Bills.
The Rams aim to become the first team since the Patriots in 2004 and 2005 to repeat as champions. Los Angeles possessed one of the best passing offenses in the NFL last season and will again be led by star wide receiver Cooper Kupp. The Rams replaced Odell Beckham Jr. with veteran Allen Robinson, who is expected to have a career year finally paired with an elite quarterback in a dynamic scheme.
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The Bills head to SoFi Stadium determined to erase the bad memories of last season’s heart-breaking divisional round loss to the Chiefs.
Josh Allen, who threw for multiple touchdowns in 13 of 17 games (76.5%), is the MVP favorite at SI Sportsbook. The former Wyoming standout also amassed the third-most rushing yards (763) among all quarterbacks last season, behind only the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts (784) and the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson (767).
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Bills (0-0 vs. Rams (0-0)
- Spread: Bills -2.5 (-110) | Rams +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Bills (-133) | Rams (+110)
- Total: 52 – Over (-110) | Under 52 (-110)
- Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: BUF 66% | LAR 34%
- Game Info: Sept. 8, 2022 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
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The line has flipped since opening with the Rams as one-point home favorites over Buffalo at SI Sportsbook to Buffalo now being displayed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The game total, which opened at 52.5, has ticked down to 52.
The Rams are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last five Week 1 games, while the Bills finished the season on a 4-1-1 ATS streak.
Rams Player Prop Info
Stafford was outstanding in the club’s Super Bowl run last year, completing 71% of his passes with a 9:3 interception-to-touchdown ratio. Stafford, who finished third in the NFL in passing yards (4,886) and second in passing touchdowns (41) last season, has been dealing with elbow discomfort on his right throwing arm.
Upon a deeper dive, we uncover that the veteran surpassed his passing yard projection of 267.5 for Week 1 in 15 of 21 (71%) games (including playoffs).
NFC Future Odds Betting Breakdown
Kupp led all receivers in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947) and receiving touchdowns (16) last season as well as becoming just the eighth receiver to be named Super Bowl MVP. On Thursday, oddsmakers have installed the supreme talent with a 88.5 receiving yards betting projection. Kupp went beyond this projection in 16 of 17 games in 2021.
Despite cashing to the over at a 94% winning clip in the regular season last year and averaging 119.5 receiving yards per game during the Super Bowl run, there has only been tepid support at the betting windows for Kupp surpassing his 88.5 yard projection.
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Allen Robinson, who has topped 1,000 receiving yards three times in his career, is hoping the move to Los Angeles will enable him to rebound from a disappointing 2021 campaign. The Bills will be without top corner Tre'Davious White (ACL), which means Robinson will draw a favorable matchup against rookie Kaiir Elam in coverage. Respected money has driven his opening number of 58.5 receiving yards up to 61.5 yards.
Running back Cam Akers (Achilles), who made his season debut in Week 17, struggled in his return. The former Florida State standout averaged 2.4 yards per carry in five games while failing to find the end zone, as well as fumbling twice.
There are some strong indications that Darrell Henderson, who led the Rams in rushing touchdowns (five) last season, could be in line for a featured role following a strong training camp.
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Bills Player Prop Info
On the other side of the ball, Allen pilots an explosive offensive attack that ranked third in scoring by averaging 28.4 points per game. Allen will face a Rams defense that is led by three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald.
Buffalo depends on strong production from its powerful passing game. The Bills have Super Bowl aspirations and those hopes rest upon the talents of Allen and the potential for continued success with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The receiver tandem combined for 1,774 yards and 16 touchdowns last season.
AFC Future Odds Betting Breakdown
When NFL fans last saw Davis, the emerging third-year talent was torching the Kansas City defense for eight receptions, 201 receiving yards and four touchdowns in the divisional round. Bettors find value on Davis’s listed projections of 3.5 receptions and 56.5 receiving yards. With Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders no longer on the roster the third-year wideout is poised to make a major leap in production upon earning the clear WR2 role in one of the NFL’s best offenses.
SI Sportsbook lists Diggs with projections of 5.5 receptions and 68.5 receiving yards. It appears his poor performance of three receptions for seven yards in the playoff loss to the Chiefs is fresh in the minds of sportsbooks. Diggs surpassed both his receptions and receiving yardage in 10 of 17 games (59%) last season.
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Meanwhile, tight end Dawson Knox, who tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns (nine) among tight ends in 2021, offers solid value in the Anytime Touchdown market at +188 odds. Knox surpassed his receiving yards demand of 35.5 in nine of 17 games last season (including playoffs).
In the backfield, Devin Singletary averaged 90.2 total yards per game while scoring nine total touchdowns over his final six games (including playoffs). Singletary, despite losing reps to rookie James Cook, is a solid flex in Week 1 fantasy lineups.
Final Thoughts: The injury to White is a major advantage for the Rams’ passing game, yet books are finding it hard to write a ticket on Los Angeles as money just continues to pour in on the Bills. In the 2022 season opener, we get afforded the opportunity to receive points with the defending champions as a home underdog.
BET: Rams +3 (-125) Buy Hook
PROP BETS:
Allen Robinson, WR, Rams: Over 61.5 receiving Yards
Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills: Over 56.5 receiving Yards
Trends:
- Buffalo is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 season openers
- Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Week 1 contests
- The Bills are 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS over their six games
- The Rams are 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS over their last seven games
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2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 9-8 ATS & Props 16-12 +5.75 Units
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 8-7-1 ATS & Prop Wagers +4.00 Units
2021 SI Betting NFL Football Overall YTD: 53-44-1 ATS & Props +14.22 Units
2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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