Saturday's bid thievery put pressure on the bubble before the final games before the Big Dance tip off.
Selection Sunday is here! But before the bracket is revealed at 6 p.m. ET, there's the matter of settling a few more conference championships—and settling the final spots in the men's NCAA tournament field. After a Saturday night produced multiple bid-stealers in Georgetown and Oregon State, where does the field of 68 stand with just hours to go?
Sunday's games to watch:
Cincinnati vs. Houston, AAC championship: The last game that could significantly shape the bubble, Cincinnati winning would become the third bid-stealer of the year and eat away yet another spot from the bubble. A win likely wouldn’t impact Houston’s seeding, though a loss could drop them to a No. 3.
Ohio State vs. Illinois, Big Ten championship: Illinois will stay above Michigan no matter what happens in this one, and Ohio State will stay behind Michigan no matter what. But the Buckeyes could jump Iowa on the seed list with a win, meaning they’d be placed in Baylor’s region rather than Gonzaga’s. I’m skeptical that Illinois could pass Baylor, but it’s at least conceivable with a win.
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On the Bubble
Last Four Byes:
Maryland
UCLA
Louisville
Michigan State
Last Four In:
VCU
Drake
Saint Louis
Wichita State
First Four Out:
Syracuse
Utah State
Colorado State
Boise State
Next Four Out:
Ole Miss
Seton Hall
Memphis
Xavier
The bubble keeps shrinking! Oregon State and Georgetown swiped bids from teams that were feeling good entering yesterday, and Cincinnati could rip one more away with a win Sunday.
Despite being pushed into the First Four due to the recent bubble movement, VCU should be safe regardless of what happens today against St. Bonaventure, a Quad 1 opponent. On the other hand, Drake, Saint Louis and Wichita State should be sweating. The margins between those three and my first three teams out (Syracuse, Utah State and Colorado State) are so incredibly tight that it wouldn’t surprise me if the committee ranked those teams in any order.
Another Selection Sunday storyline will be who are the replacement teams selected in case of COVID-19 issues. It’s possible that some of the teams that were in before Saturday’s bid-stealing will be bumped to replacements … if they choose that route.
*Bold indicates team has secured its conference's automatic bid*
Gonzaga Region
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern
No. 8 LSU vs. No. 9 UConn
No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 UC Santa Barbara
No. 4 Villanova vs. No. 13 North Texas
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 11 Drake/Saint Louis
No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 14 UNC Greensboro
No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 10 St. Bonaventure
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 15 Drexel
As has been the case since Bracket Watch began in late January, Gonzaga is the No. 1 overall seed in what will likely be referred to as the West Region. The Zags clinching their undefeated season Monday against BYU also clinched that they’d be the first team to hear its name called during the Selection Show.
With that comes the question of which No. 2 seed gets “stuck” in the same region as Gonzaga. As alluded to in the “Games to Watch” section, Ohio State would love to get out of that spot, and could do so by beating Illinois Sunday. Even though Ohio State isn’t the worst No. 2 seed, it is bracketed like it is on the S-curve, for now, to avoid being placed in the same region as a Big Ten No. 1 seed. It is below Iowa on the seed list; a win against Illinois would change that.
One other note here: You’ll see that the “First Four” game between Drake and Saint Louis is now on the No. 11 line. That’s another quirk of the bid-stealers. Since Georgetown and Oregon State are below bubble teams like Drake and SLU on the seed list but are automatic qualifiers, they populate into the other two No. 12 seeds that had been being filled by “First Four” teams for much of the year.
Baylor Region
No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 16 Appalachian State
No. 8 Georgia Tech vs. No. 9 Florida
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Oregon State
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 Ohio
No. 6 Missouri vs. No. 11 Louisville
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 14 Abilene Christian
No. 7 Loyola Chicago vs. No. 10 Maryland
No. 2 Iowa vs. No. 15 Cleveland State
This region saw a few different shifts because of action on Saturday. First, conference champions Texas and Georgia Tech each moved up the seed list. Texas jumped from a No. 4 to a No. 3 seed, displacing West Virginia down a line in the process. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech’s incredible week at the ACC tournament moved from a No. 10 at the beginning of the week to a No. 8 seed.
One bracketing note: There are a few times where the committee has to break or bend its own rules because of how teams’ resumes shake out. The Big Ten having two No. 2 seeds and three more teams on track for No. 7 or No. 10 seeds makes it nearly impossible to not have one bracketing flaw. So while it’s not ideal to put Maryland in a situation where they could match up against Big Ten foe Iowa in the second round, it’s the closest possible fit (the teams only played each other once) without bumping a team to a worse seed line than it earned.
Illinois Region
No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 16 Oral Roberts
No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 North Carolina
No. 5 Creighton vs. No. 12 Winthrop
No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 13 Colgate
No. 6 Colorado vs. No. 11 Michigan State
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 Morehead State
No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 UCLA
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington
I call this my “Blue Blood” region. Amazingly, perennial powers North Carolina, Kansas, UCLA and Michigan State all landed in this one, along with other strong brands like Wisconsin, Oregon and Illinois. A second-round matchup between Michigan State and Kansas or Illinois and North Carolina would certainly be tons of fun.
As of now, I’m fairly confident that Houston will stay on the No. 2 line even with a loss to Cincinnati Sunday. One reason for that is that the committee tends to be less reactive to games as close to the Selection Show as that one. It’s probably a 50/50 proposition whether Houston should be ahead of one of the Big 12 No. 3 seed trio (Oklahoma State, Texas and Kansas), with a loss, so we’ll stick with it on the No. 2 line regardless.
Michigan Region
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Hartford/Norfolk State
No. 8 BYU vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech
No. 5 USC vs. No. 12 Georgetown
No. 4 West Virginia vs. No. 13 Liberty
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 VCU/Wichita State
No. 3 Oklahoma State vs. No. 14 Grand Canyon
No. 7 San Diego State vs. No. 10 Rutgers
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 15 Iona
Headed by No. 4 seed Michigan, this region will be on the left side of the bracket (the same side as Gonzaga). But being on the left side of the bracket has a few different implications for how teams are sorted. First, all “First Four” teams have to be on the left side, which plays Saturday/Monday rather than Friday/Sunday. This means Michigan will likely play a team that played in the play-in game and that a No. 11 seed play-in will also find its way into this region. The other thing it means is that there is a high probability that BYU is in this region. Like First Four teams, BYU has to be on the left side because it can’t play on Sundays. And since BYU is currently mocked as a No. 8 seed, the Cougars can’t be in the Gonzaga region and risk a fourth matchup with the Zags in the second round.
Meanwhile, I’ve gotten some questions about whether Alabama could be a No. 1 seed if they win the SEC title. With Illinois’s emergence, I just can’t see it. Passing a Michigan team with half as many losses and more Quad 1 wins would be wrong, and Illinois has boosted its résumé so much in recent weeks that it would be a stunner if the committee rewarded the Tide over either of those teams.
Sweeney's full projection as of Selection Sunday (12 p.m. ET):
