As teams like Michigan and FSU return from COVID-19 pauses, can they maintain their current seeding?
This weekend represents an important first step toward Selection Sunday: The men's NCAA tournament selection committee’s annual top 16 bracket reveal. Every year, the early look at what the committee is thinking is very informative as to how it might seed the bracket come March, and this year’s is even more important given the added variables of the COVID-19-disrupted season.
Will teams that have played slightly fewer games, like Michigan and Villanova, get dinged by the committee? With limited crowds at games, will the quadrant system be less emphasized given its emphasis on road wins? How closely will seeding mirror the NET? All these questions will be answered, at least in part, on Saturday. Let’s get into my projected field heading into the weekend.
On the Bubble
The mid-major matchup of the year is this weekend, and it will have significant implications for the bubble. Right now, both Loyola Chicago and Drake would be in the field regardless of who gets the MVC’s automatic bid to the Big Dance, but a sweep by either team this weekend when the two teams face off twice would likely knock the other out. The best case for the MVC would be a split. Two teams in the First Four Out to track this weekend: Ole Miss and UConn. Each will play important road games where they could really use a win to sneak into the field. UConn desperately needs to stop the bleeding after losing four of its last five.
SWEENEY: How Loyola Chicago Built on Its Cinderella Moment
Last Four Byes:
Boise State
Indiana
Saint Louis
LSU
Last Four In:
Drake
Oregon
Colorado State
VCU
First Four Out:
Stanford
Maryland
Ole Miss
UConn
Next Four Out:
Penn State
Syracuse
Western Kentucky
St. John's
*Indicates the team is projected to win its conference's automatic bid
Gonzaga Region:
No. 1 Gonzaga* vs. No. 16 Eastern Washington*/NC A&T*
No. 8 Loyola Chicago* vs. No. 9 Xavier
No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 12 Toledo
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Liberty*
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 Saint Louis
No. 3 Houston* vs. No. 14 Grand Canyon*
No. 7 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Boise State
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 15 Siena*
Florida State returns this weekend from a COVID-19 pause with games against Wake Forest and Virginia. I wouldn’t expect them to be in the committee’s top 16 this weekend, but the Seminoles could make a strong late push for the ACC title if they rattle off some wins and make things interesting. Another team I’m incredibly intrigued by for the top 16 release is Houston. The Cougars are No. 5 nationally in NET and similarly well-regarded by predictive metrics like KenPom, but have just two Quadrant 1 wins and a bad loss to East Carolina. With limited remaining opportunities to move the needle in the AAC, this ranking will tell us a lot about what the committee thinks of Kelvin Sampson’s team.
BISHOP: How Gonzaga Zagged
Baylor Region:
No. 1 Baylor* vs. No. 16 South Dakota*/Prairie View A&M*
No. 8 Minnesota vs. No. 9 Clemson
No. 5 Missouri* vs. No. 12 UAB*
No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 13 UC Santa Barbara*
No. 6 Rutgers vs. No. 11 LSU
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 14 Navy*
No. 7 Virginia Tech vs. No. 10 Seton Hall
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Northeastern*
Missouri sits as the No. 18 team on my seed list despite its poor NET ranking (No. 34). Why? Wins over a pair of No. 2 seeds in Illinois and Alabama are major needle-movers, as is a road win at Tennessee. Add in a few other solid wins like on the road at Arkansas and Wichita State, and the Tigers have an incredibly impressive résumé with no significant blemishes. Will they be rewarded in the top 16?
Further down the seed list, Minnesota remains winless on the road but is safely in the field … for now. Beating Maryland in College Park this weekend would likely remove all doubt. If they can’t, the Gophers remain slightly vulnerable should the wheels come off late in the season.
MAGIC EIGHT: One of These Teams Will Win the National Title
Michigan Region:
No. 1 Michigan* vs. No. 16 Bryant*
No. 8 BYU vs. No. 9 Arkansas
No. 5 USC* vs. No. 12 Utah State*
No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 13 Winthrop*
No. 6 Kansas vs. No. 11 Drake/Oregon
No. 3 Iowa vs. No. 14 UNC Greensboro*
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 Indiana
No. 2 Virginia* vs. No. 15 Cleveland State*
Michigan hasn’t played since Jan. 22 due to a department-wide COVID-19 shutdown, but it will hit the ground running this weekend with a tough road game at Wisconsin. The Wolverines haven’t moved from the No. 3 overall seed in my bracket since the pause, but if they struggle to shake off the rust it could harm them in seeding come Selection Sunday. Also representing the Big Ten in this region is Indiana, which found a way to win an ugly double-overtime game against Northwestern Wednesday. It will get the opportunity to lock its name into the field if it can somehow win at Ohio State on Saturday.
Ohio State Region:
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 16 UMBC*
No. 8 Louisville vs. No. 9 San Diego State
No. 5 Purdue vs. No. 12 Colorado State/VCU
No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 Belmont*
No. 6 Colorado vs. No. 11 St. Bonaventure*
No. 3 West Virginia vs. No. 14 Abilene Christian*
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 North Carolina
No. 2 Villanova* vs. No. 15 Texas State*
Villanova is currently our top No. 2 seed, but might be able to play its way back onto the No. 1 line if it wins on the road at Creighton on Saturday. That matchup is clearly the Wildcats’ toughest remaining game—KenPom has them favored by five or more points in every other matchup the rest of the way. It’s hard to see Jay Wright’s team not earning a No. 1 seed if it wins out. One team that could be near the cut line for the top 16 is Oklahoma, but it'll get a terrific test that same day when it takes on West Virginia in Morgantown. A win there would be huge for the Sooners' hopes of a top-four seed.
Sweeney's full March Madness projection, as of Feb. 12:
