It's the last chance for teams to impress the selection committee. Who has work to do?
Here we go! It’s officially Championship Week, and as we count down to Selection Sunday, Sports Illustrated will keep you updated on all the latest movement around the bracket throughout the week. Stay tuned as more teams punch their tickets, bid-stealers wreak havoc on the bubble and bubble teams make their final plea to the selection committee.
Tuesday's games to watch:
- Gonzaga vs. BYU, WCC championship: Gonzaga can complete a perfect season and wrap up the No. 1 overall seed with a win against the WCC’s second-best club. Meanwhile, an upset for BYU would vault the Cougars up the seed line.
- Boston College vs Duke, ACC first round: Duke needs a miracle deep run in the ACC tournament to get back onto the bubble, and that starts Tuesday against lowly Boston College. A loss would end the Blue Devils' hopes.
Tuesday's autobids to punch:
- NEC: Bryant vs. Mount St. Mary’s
- CAA: Drexel vs. Elon
- Summit: North Dakota State vs. Oral Roberts
On the Bubble
Last Four Byes:
Michigan State
Maryland
VCU
Colorado State
Last Four In:
Drake
Boise State
Xavier
Wichita State
First Four Out:
Saint Louis
Utah State
St. John's
Ole Miss
Next Four Out:
Seton Hall
Syracuse
Memphis
Duke
This is the point where even the bubble has some near-locks in it. Michigan State fits that bill—even a second-round loss in the Big Ten tournament wouldn’t keep it out after a thrilling win over Michigan on Sunday. Unless the committee views MSU’s résumé vastly different than I do, the Spartans are a lock to dance.
Meanwhile, teams from opening weekend conference tournaments that lost are now in the unenviable position of sitting at home while others around them can help their résumés. Of the two teams, Drake seems to be in a slightly better position than Saint Louis right now, but both will be sweating it out in a major way (and rooting against every bubble team this week).
*Indicates team has secured it's conference's automatic bid
Gonzaga Region
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Appalachian State*/NC A&T
No. 8 Florida vs. No. 9 UConn
No. 5 Creighton vs. No. 12 Drake/Wichita State
No. 4 Texas vs. No. 13 Toledo
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 11 Colorado State
No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 14 UNC Greensboro*
No. 7 Loyola Chicago* vs. No. 10 Louisville
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 15 Grand Canyon
Ohio State’s slide continued over the weekend with a loss to Illinois, the Buckeyes’ fourth in a row. They stay on the No. 2 line for now, but two wins in the Big Ten tournament might be necessary to lock in that spot. OSU’s seven Quad 1 wins are tied for third nationally, and combined with a No. 9 NET ranking, the team is positioned well.
From a bracketing perspective, the No. 5/No. 12 matchup would be juicy for the mid-major fans out there. Former MVC squad Creighton matched up with the winner of a battle between former MVC member Wichita State and current MVC club Drake. It would feel like Arch Madness in Indianapolis.
Baylor Region
No. 1 Baylor* vs. No. 16 Drexel
No. 8 Virginia Tech vs. No. 9 LSU
No. 5 USC vs. No. 12 UC Santa Barbara
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 Western Kentucky
No. 6 Missouri vs. No. 11 VCU
No. 3 West Virginia vs. No. 14 Abilene Christian
No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 10 St. Bonaventure
No. 2 Iowa vs. No. 15 Cleveland State
West Virginia had been charging hard for a No. 2 seed, but its hopes of sneaking past Ohio State or another team on the fringes took a hit when the Mountaineers lost to Oklahoma State this weekend. The path to a top-two seed is still feasible, but now may require WVU to beat Baylor or have others around the country give it help.
One team I’m curious to figure out what the committee will do with is Missouri. The Tigers are one of nine teams in college basketball with seven Quad 1 wins, but their No. 44 NET is closer to that of a bubble team’s than a top-five seed. A strong showing in in Nashville this week would bolster the Tigers’ case to move up the seed list.
Michigan Region
No. 1 Michigan* vs. No. 16 North Dakota State
No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Rutgers
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Winthrop*
No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 13 Colgate
No. 6 Colorado vs. No. 11 Maryland
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 Morehead State*
No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 North Carolina
No. 2 Houston* vs. No. 15 Southern Utah
Michigan stays our No. 3 overall seed for now despite the loss to Michigan State. However, the margin between the Wolverines and Illinois is shrinking and could vanish depending on results at the Big Ten tournament. A head-to-head matchup in the championship game would be the easiest way to settle the debate, but it’s far from a lock both teams will get that far.
One storyline also worth watching, particularly as more and more No. 1 seeds get knocked out of mid-major conference tournaments, is how mid-majors move up the seed list. Using the example of Morehead State, when the Eagles punched their ticket on Saturday night they were probably looking at a No. 15 seed. Losses around them have already moved them up to a No. 14, and it’s possible enough upsets could happen that Morehead State will move up to a No. 13. That move can be the difference between having a chance to pull an upset and not.
Illinois Region
No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 16 Hartford/Prairie View A&M
No. 8 BYU vs. No. 9 UCLA
No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 Boise State/Xavier
No. 4 Villanova vs. No. 13 Liberty*
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 Michigan State
No. 3 Oklahoma State vs. No. 14 Bryant
No. 7 San Diego State vs. No. 10 Georgia Tech
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 15 Siena
Oklahoma State’s meteoric rise continues, as the Cowboys won on the road at West Virginia without Cade Cunningham to continue to add impressive wins to their résumé. Like with Missouri, the NET and KenPom aren’t big believers in OSU, but its body of work is difficult to ignore. My hunch is those metrics will cap Oklahoma State at a No. 3 seed no matter what it does at the Big 12 tournament.
Finally, we’ll be watching the ACC tournament this week for a number of reasons, but a primary one will be tracking whether Virginia can jump Florida State on the seed list. UVA has better metrics, but FSU has better wins and a head-to-head victory over the Cavs. If either team wins the ACC tournament, it will likely claim the top ACC spot.
Sweeney's full March Madness projection, as of March 9:
