SI's latest projection of the full men's field of 68, just two days before Selection Sunday.
Here we go! It’s officially Championship Week, and as we count down to Selection Sunday, Sports Illustrated will keep you updated on all the latest movement around the bracket throughout the week. Stay tuned as more teams punch their tickets, bid-stealers wreak havoc on the bubble and bubble teams make their final plea to the selection committee.
Friday's games to watch:
Ohio State vs. Purdue, Big Ten quarterfinal: This is a game with significant seeding implications. Ohio State can virtually lock up a No. 2 seed with a win in this one, but would be in real danger of dropping a line to a No. 3 with a loss. Meanwhile, Purdue could make its case for a No. 3 with a convincing win in Indianapolis.
Georgetown vs. Seton Hall, Big East semifinal: Simply put, this is a must-win for Seton Hall. I don’t see how it'll get in without beating the Hoyas on Friday evening, and even a victory might not be quite enough. It would certainly draw the Pirates closer to that last spot in the field though, while also giving them a shot at the conference's autobid Saturday night.
Colorado State vs. Utah State, Mountain West semifinal: This is an absolutely critical game between two bubble teams. Colorado State might be able to afford a loss—it would move it down a bit, but not too much. It would certainly make things more difficult for the Rams, though. Utah State absolutely needs this game. A win may not lock the Aggies in, but it would certainly be a huge boost for them.
Ole Miss vs. LSU, SEC quarterfinal: Ole Miss is quietly on the bubble, and one more Quadrant 1 win today against LSU would bring it very close to the cut line. The Rebels need to be Georgetown and Colorado State fans today.
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On the Bubble
Last Four Byes:
Louisville
Michigan State
VCU
Colorado State
Last Four In:
Drake
Wichita State
Saint Louis
Utah State
First Four Out:
Syracuse
Seton Hall
Boise State
Ole Miss
Next Four Out:
Xavier
St. John's
Duke
Memphis
Utah State jumps into the field following its convincing win over UNLV and Boise State’s loss to Nevada in Mountain West quarterfinal action. The Broncos have now lost four in a row, and their at-large hopes look bleak. Meanwhile, the Aggies live to fight another day and earn a date with fellow bubble club Colorado State.
Saint Louis fans were the biggest Virginia fans in the world Thursday afternoon, and the roar from Billiken nation must have been deafening when the Cavs snuck past Syracuse. The Orange are still under consideration, but I project they’ll come up just short when all is said and done. That leaves Saint Louis in the field—for now. On Friday, it would love to see Wichita State get upset early in the AAC tournament, Georgetown to beat Seton Hall and LSU to beat Ole Miss. The same goes for teams like Drake and Syracuse who’ve been eliminated and can only just wait around—root for the bubble to lose.
At this point, the teams in my “Next Four Out” are no longer in serious consideration for a bid. Nine teams are battling for the remaining five spots in the field; Colorado State and the whole “Last Four In” group are on the right side of things right now, while the full “First Four Out” remain in the mix.
*Indicates team has secured its conference's automatic bid
Gonzaga Region
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Mount St. Mary's*/Coppin State
No. 8 Florida vs. No. 9 UConn
No. 5 Creighton vs. No. 12 Drake/Utah State
No. 4 Villanova vs. No. 13 Toledo
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 11 Colorado State
No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 14 UNC Greensboro*
No. 7 Loyola Chicago* vs. No. 10 St. Bonaventure
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 15 Drexel*
Gonzaga trailed late against a feisty BYU club in the WCC championship Tuesday night, but a late surge led by Jalen Suggs allowed the Bulldogs to complete an undefeated regular season. With that, Gonzaga is now a lock for the No. 1 overall seed in this year’s field. No matter what happens between now and Selection Sunday, the Zags will be the first school to hear its name called.
Ohio State’s slide continued over the weekend with a loss to Illinois, the Buckeyes’ fourth in a row. They stay on the No. 2 line for now, but another win in the Big Ten tournament might be necessary to lock in that spot. OSU’s seven Quad 1 wins are tied for third nationally, and combined with a No. 9 NET ranking, the team is positioned well.
Baylor Region
No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 16 Oral Roberts*
No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 9 LSU
No. 5 USC vs. No. 12 UC Santa Barbara
No. 4 Texas vs. No. 13 Western Kentucky
No. 6 Missouri vs. No. 11 VCU
No. 3 Oklahoma State vs. No. 14 Abilene Christian
No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 10 UCLA
No. 2 Iowa vs. No. 15 Cleveland State
Oklahoma State’s meteoric rise continues, as the Cowboys won again against West Virginia in the Big 12 quarterfinals to continue to add impressive wins to their résumé. Like with Missouri, the NET and KenPom aren’t big believers in OSU, but its body of work is difficult to ignore. My hunch is those metrics will cap Oklahoma State at a No. 3 seed no matter how it finishes at the Big 12 tournament.
One team I’m curious to figure out what the committee will do with is Missouri. The Tigers are one of nine teams in college basketball with seven Quad 1 wins, but their No. 43 NET is closer to that of a bubble team’s than a top-five seed. A strong showing in in Nashville this week would bolster the Tigers’ case to move up the seed list.
Michigan Region
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Appalachian State*
No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Rutgers
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Winthrop*
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 Colgate
No. 6 Colorado vs. No. 11 Michigan State
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 Morehead State*
No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 Georgia Tech
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Grand Canyon*
Michigan stays our No. 3 overall seed for now despite Sunday's loss to Michigan State. However, the margin between the Wolverines and Illinois is shrinking and could vanish depending on results at the Big Ten tournament. A head-to-head matchup in the championship game would be the easiest way to settle the debate, but it’s far from a lock both teams will get that far.
One story line also worth watching, particularly as more and more No. 1 seeds get knocked out of mid-major conference tournaments, is how mid-majors move up the seed list. Using the example of Morehead State, when the Eagles punched their ticket on Saturday night they were probably looking at a No. 15 seed. Losses around them have already moved them up to a No. 14, and it’s possible enough upsets could happen that Morehead State will move up to a No. 13. That move can be the difference between having a chance to pull an upset and not.
Illinois Region
No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 16 Hartford/Prairie View A&M
No. 8 BYU vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech
No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 Wichita State/Saint Louis
No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 13 Liberty*
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 Louisville
No. 3 West Virginia vs. No. 14 Southern Utah
No. 7 San Diego State vs. No. 10 Maryland
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 15 Iona
West Virginia had been charging hard for a No. 2 seed, but its hopes of sneaking past Ohio State or another team on the fringes took a big hit when the Mountaineers lost to Oklahoma State this weekend and then again on Thursday when they lost a rematch with the Cowboys in the Big 12 quarters.
Sweeney's full March Madness projection, as of March 12:
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