Expectations are high in Denver with new quarterback Russell Wilson and the Broncos’ over/under wins total at SI Sportsbook is 9.5 wins.
While the expectations for Russell Wilson and the Broncos in 2022 continue to soar, the betting odds in the club’s future markets are becoming more prohibitive.
The veteran quarterback joins a talented Broncos offense that has been missing reliable play under center since Peyton Manning retired. In the post-Manning era, Denver has produced just one winning season in 2016 and since endured five consecutive losing seasons while posting a disappointing 30-51 (.3790) record.
The Broncos are hoping first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett can lead the club back to the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Denver’s hope for a resurgence hinges on Wilson’s ability to bounce back from the worst statistical passing season (3,113 yards) of his 10-year career in his final season with the Seahawks.
AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds
AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LV | LAC | Division Odds
Wilson, who has totaled 315 touchdowns in 158 regular-season NFL games, has an outstanding surrounding cast of talent, highlighted by second-year running back Javonte Williams and wideouts Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy.
Denver’s defense, which surrendered the third-fewest points per game (18.9), added more talent in free agency in linemen Randy Gregory and D.J. Jones.
SI Sportsbook has Denver (+260) only slightly behind the Chiefs (+160) and Chargers (+240) in AFC West betting odds.
Afforded a solid defense and a plethora of young offensive weapons, can Wilson provide a big enough boost to a passing attack that ranked 19th in passing yards per game (211.4) to surpass the regular-season wins total projection of 9.5 games while playing in the NFL’s toughest division?
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Denver Broncos Over/Under: 9.5 - O (-141) | U (+105)
2021-2022 record: 7-10; Last AFC West; Missed Playoffs
AFC West future odds: +260 (Third)
AFC future odds: +800 (Tied-third)
Super Bowl future odds: +1600 (Tied-eighth)
Key additions: QB Russell Wilson, DE Randy Gregory, DT D.J. Jones
Key losses: TE Noah Fant, QB Drew Lock, OL Bobby Massie, CB Kyle Fuller
Key rookies: LB Nik Bonitto, TE Greg Dulcich
What more could the Broncos have done to jumpstart this roster? Acquiring a nine-time Pro Bowl QB still playing in his prime years has set the Broncos up for a renaissance. Add to that the acquisition of a run-stuffing nose tackle (Jones) and a bonafide edge rusher (Gregory) to pair with Bradley Chubb, and the Broncos’ defense also took a massive step forward—even if Bonitto doesn’t pan out early.—Chad Jensen
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2022 Denver Broncos Schedule
Week 1: At Seahawks
Week 2: Texans
Week 3: 49ers
Week 4: At Raiders
Week 5: Colts
Week 6: At Chargers
Week 7: Jets
Week 8: Jaguars (London)
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: At Titans
Week 11: Raiders
Week 12: At Panthers
Week 13: At Ravens
Week 14: Chiefs
Week 15: Cardinals
Week 16: At Rams
Week 17: At Chiefs
Week 18: Chargers
Denver kicks off the season as perhaps the most public-backed team in Week 1 betting as Wilson returns to Seattle after spending 10 seasons as the face of the Seahawks. The Broncos opened as 3.5-point road favorites and have already steamed up to five-point favorites, and my Vegas sources indicated this line could approach full touchdown status by kickoff of the first Monday Night Football game of 2022.
After starting on the road, Denver is poised to start the season 2-0 with a favorable home opener as a 10.5-point favorite against the Texans.
Denver will face its first tough test in Week 3 when it hosts Trey Lance and the 49ers as 2.5-point home favorites. San Francisco is expected to be among the NFC’s best teams and its wins total over/under at SI Sportsbook is 9.5 wins.
Ron Chenoy/USA TODAY Sports
The Broncos head to Las Vegas in Week 4 to face Davante Adams and the Raiders as one-point underdogs. The Raiders, who own a four-game winning streak over Denver, have won seven of the last nine meetings dating back to 2018.
In Week 5, Jonathan Taylor and the Colts invade Empower Field at Mile High on Thursday Night football as three-point road underdogs. Denver catches Indianapolis on a short week, fresh off two grueling matchups against the Chiefs and Titans.
Denver heads to SoFi Stadium in Week 6 for a Monday Night Football matchup against the Chargers as three-point underdogs. Despite only winning 12 games over the last two seasons, two of Denver’s victories came against the Justin Herbert-led squad. Denver has dominated their AFC West rival by winning 12 of the last 17 matchups.
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The Broncos have two favorable matchups against the Jets and Jaguars prior to their Week 9 bye.
The Week 7 home game against Zach Wilson and the Jets finds the Broncos installed as 6.5-point favorites prior to heading across the pond in Week 8 to face Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. The Broncos are 0-2 in London, but early wagering finds the club installed as 6.5-point favorites to end its London losing streak.
Quarterback Props Series: Passing Yards | Passing TD | Brady | Herbert | Allen
Coming out of the break, Denver hits the road three times in four weeks save for a home matchup against the Raiders in Week 11. The Broncos will visit the Titans, Ravens and Panthers, and the Titans and Ravens games will likely be more demanding than the coin-flip point spreads being assigned by oddsmakers.
The Broncos face AFC West foe Kansas City twice over the final five weeks of the season. Patrick Mahomes is 9-0 against the Broncos and the Chiefs actually own a 13-game winning streak over Denver. Look-ahead lines display an early betting line of ‘pick-em to end their seven-game home losing streak to the Chiefs, while oddsmakers have installed Kansas City as 4.5-point home favorites in the Week 17 showdown.
Ron Chenoy / USA TODAY Sports
Denver is favored in slightly more than half of its games (nine of 17), which makes its regular-season wins total projection of 9.5 games right on target.
Adding Wilson to an offense that already consisted of Sutton, Jeudy and Williams has bettors believing the club will enjoy its first winning season since 2016.
However, this schedule only finds five games with strong win potential while, at best, splitting the AFC West games brings the win total to eight. In order for the club to surpass the demand of 9.5, it will need to find at least two wins against the 49ers, Colts, Titans, Ravens, Cardinals (Week 15) or Rams (Week 16), which is attainable.
BET: Over 9.5 regular-season wins (-141)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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