Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler Look to End Phillies’ Playoff Drought

Fantasy outlook, stats and analysis for 2022 Philadelphia Phillies hitters and pitchers.

In 2021, the Phillies extended their streak of not making the postseason to 10 years. However, they’ve been a .500 ball club over the past four seasons. In addition, Philadelphia has allowed more runs than they scored each year since 2012. Their franchise had two mini windows of success (1976-83 and 2007-11), when Philly made the playoffs 11 times with a pair of World Series titles (1980 and 2008). Their only other appearances in the postseason came in 1915, 1950 and 1993, all resulting in losses in the World Series.

Philadelphia finished 18th in ERA (4.39) in 2021, with more risk in their bullpen (4.60 ERA – 25th). Their relievers won 42 games while picking up 28 losses and 36 saves. Their offense ranked 13th in runs (734), 15th in home runs (198) and 14th in stolen bases (77).

The only players added to their offense were C Garrett Stubbs (minor trade with Houston) and IF Johan Camargo (free agent signing). The Phillies parted ways with OF Andrew McCutchen, OF Odubel Herrera, 3B Brad Miller, RP Hector Neris (HOU), RP Archie Bradley, RP Ian Kennedy, SP Matt Moore and RP Brandon Kintzler. They signed RP Corey Knebel to compete for their closing job.

Most of Philadelphia’s top bats will be 29 or older at some point in 2022. OF Bryce Harper remains their foundation bat while having his best success in 2015. 3B Alex Bohm lost his way last year, but he is their top young player. Philly has three questionable options in their starting lineup that may be addressed via free agency after the lockout. At this point, I only see a mid-tier offense unless three players have career seasons in power.

The Phillies have two foundation aces if SP Zack Wheeler and SP Aaron Nola can be in sync this year. Wheeler emerged in 2021, while Nola underperformed expectations. SP Ranger Suarez proved to be a valuable asset over the second half of last season, but he needs to add length to his innings to become a trusted starting arm. The back of their rotation looks to be in flux, with SP Kyle Gibson and SP Zach Eflin (coming off knee surgery) offering the most experience.

Their bullpen may surprise if RP Corey Knebel can build off his short innings (25.2) in 2021 and RP Seranthony Dominguez regains his form after having TJ surgery in 2019.

The nucleus of their team has playoff potential if Philadelphia can add the correct complementary pieces from the free agent pool before the season.

Starting Lineup

2B Jean Segura

After a downtick season in 2020, Segura delivered competitive stats last year despite missing a couple of weeks in late April and early May with a quad injury. He finished 107th in SIscore (-0.75) for hitters.

Segura finished with a slight regression in his average hit rate (1.503) and contact batting average (.342). In addition, his launch angle (5.8 – 288th), barrel rate (5.9 – 221st) and hard-hit rate (37.4 – 209th) all ranked poorly while continuing to have a ground ball swing path (52.1% – 54.9 in his career).

His strikeout rate (13.8) matched his career average. Over the past two years, Segura took a few more walks (7.9%). He hit for batting average (.322) before the All-Star break and more power (10 home runs and 32 RBI) over the second half of the season. His bat played better against left-handed pitching (.313 with six home runs and 21 RBI over 163 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook

The Phillies don’t have the ideal player to bat leadoff in early February, giving Segura the inside track on paper. However, his lack of walks and on-base percentage (.340) over the previous five years makes more sense lower in the lineup. Additionally, I don’t see a rise in power and his steals are only complementary at this point in his career. His ADP (202) ranks him as the 126th batter drafted. Segura checks the batting average box with neutral value in runs and stolen bases. More of the same, but more at-bats will help his counting categories.

C J.T. Realmuto

Realmuto started to miss more time last season due to injuries. Over the year, he battled hand, knee, wrist, head, shoulder, ankle and elbow issues, but Realmuto only landed on the injured list for 11 days over the second half of May.

His strikeout rate (24.0) has been above his career average (19.8) in back-to-back seasons. He set a new top in his walk rate (8.9). Realmuto’s contact batting average (.360) has been a tight range over the past four seasons.

The lack of depth in the Phillies' starting lineup led to a sharp decline in his run rate (37 – 53 in 2020 and 49 in 2019). His average hit rate (1.672) tapered back from his progression from 2018 to 2020 (1.782). Realmuto graded better in his hard-hit rate (44.7 – 83rd) than his barrel rate (8.6 – 140th). Part of his slide in power came from a low fly-ball rate (33.2).

Fantasy Outlook

Gaining an edge at catcher can be essential to winning with the right team structure. The DH in the National League gives Realmuto a chance at setting a career-high in at-bats. His overall skill set looks intact, but his ceiling looks to be drifting lower. Fantasy managers in the NFBC rank him as the 33rd hitter with an ADP of 51. Realmuto finished 43rd in SIscore (0.77) for hitters last year despite a down season. With 550 at-bats, he should hit .270 with 85 runs, 20 home runs, 75 RBI and about 10 stolen bases.

OF Bryce Harper

Harper is one of the top players in baseball, but he also has a yo-yo feel each year due to his inability to produce consistent stats in some categories. In 2017, he posted an elite contact batting average (.417), but it took him four seasons to repeat that skill. In addition, his RBI rate (16) has been up and down over the past three seasons. In his career, Harper has also had swings in his strikeout rate (22.4 – low of 17.6 in 2019 and high of 26.3 in 2014).

What he does well is get on base and produce a high average hit rate (1.978). Harper ranked seventh in barrel rate (18.1) and 27th in hard-hit rate (49.7). His RBI chances (326) came in below his previous seasons.

His bat was impressive against right-handed pitching (.333 with 31 home runs and 72 RBI over 336 at-bats). After the All-Star break, Harper offered the most success (.338 with 54 runs, 20 home runs and 50 RBI over 240 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook

Over the past three years, Harper finished 21st (5.23), 14th (2.35) and 11th (6.30) by SIscore. He has the feel of an excellent second bat while still owning the talent and upside to post the best hitting season in baseball if he clicks on all cylinders. His ADP (9.6) priced him above his previous success. Harper has the upside of .320 with 40 home runs and 15 steals with a high floor in runs and RBIs combined. To earn his keep, he must hit for average again this year.

1B Rhys Hoskins

Heading into last season, I had had high expectations for Hoskins. His bat flashed over 30 games in 2020 (.298 with 30 runs, 10 home runs, 24 RBI and one steal over 114 at-bats), but he finished the year on the injured list with a left elbow injury that required TJ surgery.

Last year, Hoskins started the year with regression in his approach (walk rate – 6.6 and strikeout rate – 33.6), leading to a .234 batting average with 23 runs, eight home runs and 18 RBI over his first 128 at-bats. Over his next 260 at-bats, he hit .254 with 41 runs, 19 home runs and 53 RBI while regaining his patience at the plate (walk rate – 12.5 and strikeout rate – 20.0). Unfortunately, his season ended in late August with an abdomen issue requiring surgery.

He continues to have a tremendous fly-ball rate (50.9) and his HR/FB rate (18.8) is trending higher. Additionally, Hoskins had the eighth highest launch angle (21.7), setting up a plus barrel rate (17.0 – 16th). His hard-hit rate (46.3 – 65th) also had strength.

Fantasy Outlook

With back-to-back injury seasons on his resume, Hoskins will be discounted in drafts in 2022. His ADP (140) in the NFBC in January drafts prices him as the 88th hitter while ranking 15th at first base. His fly ball swing path leads to many easy outs, but Hoskins could still hit over .250 with a bump in his contact batting average. He has league-leading power if he locks in for a whole season. I expect him to beat the league average in runs and RBI.

3B Alex Bohm

Bohm made the jump from AA (238 at-bats) to the majors with relative ease in 2020. He posted an elite contact batting average (.435), which came in well above his success in college (.365) and the minors (.347). However, his average hit rate (1.426) fell well short of expectations for his size (6-5 and 220 pounds) and his college career (1.731).

Last year Bohm lost his approach (strikeout rate – 27.8 and walk rate – 6.2) over his 53 games, leading to regression in his bat (.203 with 19 runs, four home runs and 24 RBI). In June, he gained some momentum in batting average (.329 over 79 at-bats), but he failed to hit a home run.

Bohm missed time in July with a COVID-19 and his struggles (.260/13/3/12 over 100 at-bats) led to Philadelphia sending back to the minors on August 22. In September, a wrist issue led to seven more at-bats (three hits) in the big leagues.

His struggles with power in Philly came from a ground ball swing path (52.9) that should help his batting average when paired with his hard-hit rate (49.5 – 28th). In addition, Bohm ranked poorly in his barrel rate (6.6 – 201st) and launch angle (5.6 – 290th).

Bohm hit .291 over 673 at-bats in the minors with 101 runs, 22 home runs, 103 RBI and 12 stolen bases. With about the same playing time (635) in college, he hit .317 with 121 runs, 33 home runs, 125 RBI and 14 steals.

Fantasy Outlook

Bohm can be had with pick 287 in the early draft season in the NFBC, which is 183 selections lower than 2020. The baseline of his foundation skill set projects high, but he needs to find more loft to produce more home runs. His ability to take walks and hit for average should lead to him hitting in a favorable part of the batting order. I’m going to set his bar at .280 with 85 runs, 20 home runs, 90 RBI and a chance at double-digit steals while understanding Bohm may beat all categories by a wide margin except stolen bases. His power will come fast with an improved launch angle. He should be a great value based on his price point and potential upside.

SS Didi Gregorius

Gregorius missed a significant part of the year with injuries twice over the past three seasons. Last year after a quiet start (.229 with 10 runs, four home runs and 22 RBI over 118 at-bats), he landed on the injured list for seven weeks with a right elbow injury. When Gregorius returned to the starting lineup, his bat fell short of expectations over 250 at-bats (.200 with 25 runs, nine home runs and 32 RBI).

His average hit rate (1.766) remained in an area to deliver 25-plus home runs. In his injury seasons, Gregorius posted a meager contact batting average (.284 and .256). Even in his best two years (2017 and 2018), he only hit .330 and .310 when putting the ball in play.

Gregorius continues to have a favorable strikeout rate (16.4). However, he has never had a plus walk rate (6.0). His fly-ball rate (45.4) was a career-high, but Gregorius finished with his lowest HR/FB rate (9.4) since 2015. His launch angle (18.3 – 45th) graded well while posting an empty barrel rate (2.3 – 297th) and hard-hit rate (26.6 – 300th).

Fantasy Outlook

There are flaws in Gregorius’s game for sure, but when healthy, his bat can still offer neutral stats in four categories. I hope last season's elbow issue doesn’t turn into a Tommy John issue. His ADP (443) looks well below his possible upside with a healthy year. With a .260/80/20/80 season, Gregorius will outperform his 245th hitter ranking. For comparison, he ranked 71st (1.74) in 2017, 32nd (3.35) in 2018 and 29th (1.25) in 2020 by SIscore.

2B Johan Camargo

After seven light-hitting seasons in the minors (.278 with 15 home runs, 188 RBI and 22 steals over 1,915 at-bats), Camargo made a huge step forward in his power swing with Atlanta in 2018. His average hit rate jumped to a career-high (1.683), which led to the most home runs (22 over 497 at-bats between AAA and the majors) of his career. Last year

Camargo struggled with the Braves in 2019 and 2020 (11 home runs and 41 RBI over 352 at-bats), but he failed to make Atlanta’s roster last year. However, his bat had no problem with AAA (.326 over 386 at-bats with 70 runs, 19 home runs and 67 RBI).

Fantasy Outlook

This season Camargo would compete for at-bats in the Phillies’ outfield, plus work as insurance for multiple infield positions. He may offer short-term injury replacement stats in deep formats with a starting window.

OF Scott Kingery

Kingery played his way out of a starting job in 2020 after going 9-for-67 with one home run, four RBI and 16 strikeouts. In August, he missed time with a back issue that ultimately led to a trip on the injured list in September. As a result, his bat was worthless over his final 42 at-bats (.215 with two home runs, two RBI and 17 strikeouts).

Last year Kingery battled a right shoulder injury (labrum) that required surgery in mid-July. He only had 14 hits in 91 at-bats with 12 runs, no home runs and five RBI between AAA and the majors.

His strikeout rate (28.4) with Philadelphia does deter his growth at this point in his career. Kingery also has a below-average walk rate (5.9).

His combination of home runs (19) and stolen bases (15) in 2019 while adding in an improved average hit rate (1.839) and contact batting average (.379) still lingers on his major-league resume.

Over five seasons in the minors, Kingery hit .278 with 34 home runs, 139 RBI and 74 stolen bases over 1,412 at-bats. His strikeout rate (17.3) painted a better picture of success with Philly.

Fantasy Outlook

A couple of outfield positions for Philadelphia look wide open in early February, which should be filled by a developing minor-league player and a possible free-agent signing. Kingery won’t draw any attention in drafts and players coming off shoulder injuries tend to underperform in power the following year. So, for now, Kingery is only a placeholder until he shows something in spring training. His recent path points to him starting the year at AAA.

OF Matt Vierling

Over three seasons in the minors, Vierling hit .267 with 114 runs, 23 home runs, 119 RBI and 39 stolen bases over 958 at-bats. After a quiet start at AA (.345/16/6/16/5 over 87 at-bats), Philly pushed him to AAA, where his bat slipped in batting average (.248) while delivering 25 runs, five home runs and five steals over 206 at-bats. His walk rate (7.7) came in below the league average while offering a favorable strikeout rate (18.4).

In his first experience in the majors, Vierling hit .324 with 11 runs, two home runs, six RBI and two stolen bases over 71 at-bats.

Fantasy Outlook

The cloudiness of the outfield options for the Phillies creates a possible starting window for Vierling. He looks to be a balanced player who may need some time at AAA. Spring training success is a must to offer any early value in the regular season.

SS Bryson Stott

Philadelphia drafted Stott with the 14th overall selection in the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over three seasons in college, he hit .340 with 157 runs, 15 home runs, 97 RBI and 34 stolen bases over 688 at-bats. He finished with an impressive walk rate (13.4) while striking out 10.0% of the time.

Last year Stott made the push from High A to AAA, leading to a .299 batting average with 71 runs, 16 home runs, 49 RBI and 10 stolen bases over 418 at-bats. His walk rate (13.3) held form, but his strikeout rate (22.2) slipped below the league average.

Stott hits for a high average when putting the ball in play. His average hit rate (1.624) ranks below the top power hitters in the game.

Fantasy Outlook

The Phillies desperately need someone to develop into their leadoff man and Stott has the approach and bat control to seize that opportunity. Unfortunately, he only has 33 at-bats of experience at AAA, putting him a few months away from the majors. As a result, his ADP (468) points to a bench in 15-team formats or NL-only leagues. However, I view him as must follow this spring as his profile and potential output give him a chance to help fantasy teams this year. When his time comes to start every day for Philadelphia, I expect a .300/100/20/75/20 type player.

OF Adam Haseley

Over four seasons in the minors, Haseley hit .281 with 29 home runs, 134 RBI and 25 steals over 1,120 at-bats. However, his bat struggled over limited at-bats (224) at AAA (.246/26/5/23/8).

With Philly over the past three seasons, Haseley has been unable to gain a starting job (.264 over 322 at-bats with 39 runs, five home runs, 39 RBI and four stolen bases). His strikeout rate (22.8) and walk rate (5.9) came in below the league average.

The Phillies added him with the eighth pick in the first round of the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft.

Fantasy Outlook

Haseley is a line-drive hitter who projects better in batting average than power early in his career. He should start the year at AAA again in 2022, but a DH in the National League would improve his chance at playing time. Haseley missed time last year with COVID-19 and a hamstring issue.

Starting Pitching

SP Zack Wheeler

Wheeler improved his strikeout rate in each of the past four seasons (4.2, 2.7, 2.3, 2.0. and 1.9). He lost his strikeout ability (6.7 per nine) in 2020 but found it in a big way last year (10.4). His first-pitch strike rate (67) was the key to his dominance. Batters only hit .215 against him.

Over his last 43 starts, Wheeler has gone 18-12 with a 2.82 ERA and 300 strikeouts over 284.1 innings. He had similar success against right-handed (.218 BAA) and left-handed (.213 BAA) batters. His best success came at home (7-5 with 2.38 ERA and 149 strikeouts over 124.2 innings).

His average fastball (97.3) continues to rise while gaining his edge with a slider (.192 BAA), curveball (.145 BAA) and four-seamer (.220 BAA). In addition, Wheeler sneaks in a low-volume changeup (no hits over 53 at-bats) and split-finger fastball (.273 BAA).

He has done an excellent job keeping the ball down over the past two seasons (55.9 and 49.8%).

Fantasy Outlook

Fantasy managers will draft him as an SP1 in 2022, but he only has one season of that success on his resume. His ADP (23) prices him as the seventh starting pitcher off the board in the NFBC in January. Wheeler checks the command, fastball and secondary stuff boxes, so the only thing that can stop him is an injury. Possible 15 wins with a sub-3.00 ERA and 225 strikeouts.

SP Aaron Nola

Over the past four seasons, batters hit only .220 against Nola, with an excellent strikeout rate (10.4) and a favorable walk rate (2.7). He went 43-17 with a 3.54 ERA and 772 strikeouts over 666.2 innings.

Nola finished with the lowest walk rate (1.9) of his career in 2021, but his ERA (4.63) fell below his expected success based on his WHIP (1.129). Over his final 18 starts, he allowed four runs or more in eight games (13 home runs over 37.2 innings), leading to a 5.44 ERA, .232 BAA and 129 strikeouts over 97.2 innings.

His stuff regressed against right-handed batters (.254 BAA). He lost the ability to keep the ball down (ground ball rate – 40.5, 49.7 in 2020 and 48.7 in his career).

His average fastball (93.1) is about league average while almost matching his previous three seasons. Nola continues to have an elite curveball (.211 BAA), but his changeup (.240 BAA) and four-seamer (.260 BAA) lost momentum. Over the final three months, all of his pitches worked well vs. lefties, but right-handers drilled his four-seamer (.306 BAA) and sinker (.350 BAA) with a step back in value with his curveball (.255 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook

Home runs allowed (26 over 180.2 innings) and left-on-base percentage (66.8) crushed his ERA while failing to keep the ball down on many pitches. However, his command and strikeout rate suggest Nola isn’t far behind Wheeler. He ranks as the 12th starting pitcher drafted in the NFBC in the early draft season with an ADP of 39. Moving in the wrong direction, but his price is not. I am torn as I respect his upside, but Nola is only an SP2 for me. With a rebound in his game, a 3.00 ERA and 250 strikeouts are within reach. My gut says fade, but it’s your game and your plan.

SP Ranger Suarez

From 2015-18 in the minors, Suarez went 23-13 with a 2.43 ERA and 286 strikeouts over 348.1 innings. He tripped up at AAA in 2019 (5.68 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and eight home runs over 38 innings with 32 strikeouts), but Philly still gave him a chance in the majors.

Over his first 44 games in the majors, he had a 4.66 ERA, 1.552 WHIP and 54 strikeouts over 67.2 innings. Philadelphia called him up last year on May 9 to pitch out of their bullpen. Suarez earned a shot at closing after allowing two runs and 11 hits over 27.1 innings with 23 strikeouts. Over his next 11 games, he went 2-1 with four saves over 13 innings with 19 strikeouts.

The Phillies decided to move him into the starting rotation in early August. Suarez posted a 1.51 ERA over 65.2 innings with 65 strikeouts.

Lefties only had 11 hits over 101 at-bats (.109 BAA). His average fastball (93.8) was more than one MPH higher his first three years with Philly. Batters struggled to hit all four of his pitches (four-seamer – .173 BAA, sinker – .207 BAA, changeup – .200 BAA and slider – .095 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook

Suarez owns the minor-league resume to support his success last year. His command has always been elite and he added more strikeout ability in 2021. His ADP (176) puts Suarez in the upside SP3 or SP4 conversation, depending on league size. I respect his growth. On a path to make 30 starts with a 3.00 ERA and 175 strikeouts.

SP Kyle Gibson

Gibson pitched well in 2015 (3.84 ERA), 2018 (3.62 ERA) and 2021 (3.71 ERA), but he posted a 5.13 ERA over his other 522.2 innings. After a disaster showing on opening day (five runs and seven base runners over one-third of an inning) last year, Gibson went on an impressive 15-start tear (6-0 with a 1.51 ERA, .194 BAA and 80 strikeouts over 95.1 innings). Unfortunately, his true colors showed up in too many games over the second half of his season (5.63 ERA, .268 BAA, 10 home runs and 74 strikeouts over 86.1 innings).

His average fastball (93.1) came in at the league average. All four of his secondary pitches (slider – .188 BAA, cutter – .233 BAA, changeup – .192 BAA and curveball – .180 BAA) offered an edge. His lead pitch (sinker – .262 BAA) set up his arsenal.

Most of his struggles came against left-handed batters (.259 with 10 home runs over 355 at-bats). Gibson continues to be an extreme ground ball pitcher (51.7% – 51.5 in his career) while never allowing over a 30.0% fly-ball rate.

Fantasy Outlook

The bad outweighs the good in Gibson’s major-league resume. The key to his success comes with better command, which has been an issue in his career. His ADP (367) is in the free-agent range in 12-team formats, but I would be careful riding him over the long haul. Fantasy managers only need to look at his career WHIP (1.391) to see why he is in the avoid column other than a potential double-start weeks.

SP Zach Eflin

Eflin continues to tease fantasy managers with his low walk rate (1.7) and improved strikeout rate (9.2) over the past two seasons. In his six years with the Phillies, he has never allowed fewer hits than innings pitched (.272 BAA) while continuing to battle home runs (1.3 per nine).

Over his 18 starts in 2021, Eflin allowed two runs or fewer in 10 games. Unfortunately, his four poor showings (21 runs, 35 baserunners and seven home runs over 21.2 innings with 28 strikeouts). His season ended in mid-July with a right knee injury requiring September surgery. The Phillies hope Eflin is ready for the start of the year.

His average fastball (93.3) was his lowest since 2016. However, batters hit .255 or more against all of his pitches (four-seamer, sinker, slider, curveball and changeup). In his career, Eflin only had success with his curveball (.231 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook

The timetable from his recovery pushes his ADP (479) into the free-agent pool in all redraft leagues. Eflin throws strikes, but he can’t become a dependable starter without improving one of his secondary pitches. A possible, manageable arm once Eflin is back on the mound and showing success.

SP Hans Crouse

Over four seasons in the minors, Crouse went 16-8 with a 3.27 ERA and 266 strikeouts over 247.1 innings. He struggled in 2019 at A (6-1 with a 4.41 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 87.2 innings), but a year off in 2020 (no minor-league baseball) led to a bounce back in his arm last season. Crouse shined over 19 starts at AA (3.12 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 92 strikeouts over 80.2 innings).

Philadelphia acquired him at the draft deadline from the Rangers for SP Spencer Howard and SP Kevin Gowdy. Crouse struggled in his only start at AAA (three runs and six baserunners over 4.1 innings with six strikeouts), but the Phillies gave him two appearances in the majors (5.14 ERA, 1.571 WHIP, seven walks and two strikeouts over seven innings).

He brings a hard sinking fastball that sits in the mid-90s while offering an upside slider. Crouse battled elbow injuries in the past.

Fantasy Outlook

Philly may use him as a bridge arm until Eflin is healthy. Crouse should start the year at AAA. His combination of fastball and slider may lead to help in the bullpen this season. Crouse has never thrown over 88 innings at any level in his pro career.

Bullpen

RP Corey Knebel

Knebel blew out his right elbow in 2019, which led to TJ surgery and no value for two seasons.

After his dominating season as a closer in 2017 (1.78 ERA, 126 strikeouts and 39 saves over 76 innings), he pitched only 94.1 innings over the past four years, leading to a 3.63 ERA and 133 strikeouts.

After earning a win and two saves with a 4.50 ERA and nine strikeouts over six innings in April, Knebel landed on the injured list for three-and-a-half months with a lat injury. He posted a 1.83 ERA with 21 strikeouts over his final 19.2 innings.

His average fastball (96.4) was a step down from 2017 (97.6). Batters struggled to his plus curveball (.212 BAA) and his four-seam fastball (.167 BAA), which fell in a comparable range to his previous success.

Fantasy Outlook

Knebel has the arm to close, but he needs to stay healthy. His command can be a problem while offering swing-and-miss ability. In January, in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, he had an ADP of 171. Knebel should help in ERA and strikeouts with a chance at 35-plus saves.

RP Seranthony Dominguez

Dominguez was the sexy closer in waiting for the Phillies in 2019, but he pitched his way out of contention after three games (four runs and five baserunners over 2.1 innings with four strikeouts). His arm looked better over his last nine innings in April (2.00 ERA and 10 strikeouts). Unfortunately, something looked awry in May (4.09 ERA). In early June, Dominguez saw his season end with a right elbow injury, but he didn’t have TJ surgery until July of 2020.

Over eight seasons in the minors, Dominguez had a 3.32 ERA and 322 strikeouts over 347 innings.

With Philly in 2018, he had 16 saves in 20 chances with a 2.95 ERA and 74 strikeouts over 58 innings.

His average fastball (94.8) in his only inning of work last year with Philly was three MPH less than in 2018 (98.1).

Fantasy Outlook

It’s been a long time since Dominguez helped in Philadelphia’s bullpen. However, if his command shows growth, he has a live arm with closing upside.

RP Jose Alvarado

Over his first two seasons with Tampa Bay, Alvarado posted a 2.79 ERA and 109 strikeouts over 93.2 innings while walking 3.7 batters per nine innings. Unfortunately, he forgot how to throw strikes over the past three years (4.56 ERA, 80 walks and 120 strikeouts over 94.2 innings).

In 2021, he struggled to get right-handed batters out (.266 BAA).

Alvarado has a big fastball (98.9 MPH) while owning an elite slider (.049 BAA). His command issue comes from his sinker (.248 BAA and 37 walks over 145 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook

At this point of his career, Alvarado has a dirt devil arm. His first-strike rate (51) is a disaster. Despite his faults, if he finds the foundation of command, his success would improve dramatically. Pure avoid until Alvarado strings some productive innings together.

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