The Buccaneers matchup against the 49ers features two quarterbacks on the opposite end of the spectrum with "The Goat" taking on "Mr. Irrelevant."
The GOAT is an underdog against Mr. Irrelevant. There’s more layers to the Buccaneers-49ers game, but the quarterback matchup between Tom Brady and Brock Purdy is at the heart of it.
San Francisco lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for at least the regular season last week to a broken foot. With Purdy under center, the Niners still went on to win against the Dolphins and the seventh-round rookie looked solid. Tampa Bay is on a short week after coming out on top against New Orleans on Monday in the game’s waning seconds to get back to .500.
The Buccaneers and 49ers haven’t played since 2019, though they would have met in last year’s NFC Championship had Tampa gotten past Los Angeles.
Buccaneers vs. 49ers Odds
Moneyline: Buccaneers (+155) | 49ers (-188)
Spread: TB +5.5 (-143) | SF -5.5 (+120)
Total: 36.5 – Over (-118) | Under (+100)
Bet on Buccaneers-49ers at SI Sportsbook
Nothing has come easy for Tampa Bay this season. Last week, it took a 14-point fourth-quarter comeback to get by the struggling Saints. The team averages the sixth-fewest points per game in the league (18.1) and is the only offense without 1,000 yards rushing on the year. This puts more pressure on Brady and the passing game, which has been nowhere near as prolific as it was his first two years with the Bucs. No quarterback has attempted more passes than Brady, but he’s fifth in passing yards and tied for 14th in passing touchdowns. (Of all people, he’s tied with Garoppolo.)
The Tampa Bay defense has kept the team competitive. It allows the fifth-fewest points (18.3), seventh-fewest passing yards (195.3) and is about league average against the run. In regulation, the unit has held its last four opponents under 20 points—the Browns broke 20 in overtime. The Buccaneers are also adept at getting to the quarterback with the fourth-most sacks this season (38).
As for the 49ers, the machine kept on rolling without Garoppolo. Purdy threw for 210 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in relief and the offense added 121 yards on the ground last week. San Francisco ranks in the top half of the league in scoring (22.7 ppg) and has a relatively balanced passing and rushing attack. Coach Kyle Shanahan may elect to lean heavier on the run with a rookie quarterback, but his system famously makes things easy on the signal caller and Purdy has a talented crop of pass catchers to throw to with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle.
No team allows fewer points than the Niners (15.8). They also allow the least rushing yards in the NFL (75.6 per game) and are similarly stout against the pass (208.3 yards allowed). This talented front is tied for the sixth-most sacks in the league (36) and the defense hasn’t let up 20 points since Week 7 against the Chiefs.
Odds Trends and Betting Insights
The 49ers are 5–1 straight up at home this season and 4–1 against the spread as the favorite at Levi’s Stadium. The Buccaneers are 2–3 SU and ATS on the road and they lost their most recent road game outright. The over is 2–10 in Tampa Bay games this season, the second-lowest hit rate in the league.
Buccaneers Straight-Up Record: 6–6
Buccaneers Against the Spread Record: 3-8-1
49ers Straight-Up Record: 8–4
49ers Against the Spread Record: 7–5
