Now that Cam Newton is officially a New England Patriot, sportsbooks have lined up multiple prop bets ahead of the season. SI Gambling analyst Frankie Taddeo looks at the early lines and discusses the significant value available.
To say the oddsmakers are on different ends of the spectrum when it pertains to newly signed New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton is an understatement.
Depending on where you shop, the projections for the former league MVP are all the map. Let’s take a deeper look.
DraftKings Sportsbook is the most pessimistic in believing the former Carolina Panthers star can overtake second-year pro Jarrett Stidham and be the starting quarterback under center in Week 1 against Miami. DraftKings projections can currently be found at 3,000.5 passing yards and 18.5 passing touchdowns.
PointsBet Sportsbook comes in at the middle of the road in their convictions that Newton will make an impact in New England in 2020 with projections of 3,249.5 passing yards and 22.5 passing touchdowns.
Bovada sportsbook is clearly the most bullish in the belief that the talented Newton can step right into Tom Brady’s shoes and revive his career under Bill Belichick’s tutelage with high-end projections of 3,650 passing yards and 25 passing touchdowns.
For those who love to “middle” sports betting numbers this is your dream scenario. Middling is a betting strategy that attempts to exploit discrepancies in market numbers, shifting point spread lines, or adjusted totals.
If a sports bettor is able to pull it off successfully, it can be one of the most profitable bets in all of sports betting. For a middle to be executed successfully, bets need to be staked in two opposing directions (or totals) in a way that the final outcome will land between both numbers, ie “the middle”; thus enabling both wagers to be cashed.
Middling bettors... welcome to nirvana.
SI Gambling is here to point out that right now, you can wager on the over in Newton’s passing yards (3,000.5) and touchdowns (18.5) at DraftKings, while at the same time hitting the under on his projections (3,650 and 25) at Bovada sportsbook. This would give bettors a 748 passing yard “middle” to cash both wagers if Newton were to finish with a passing total in 2020 that falls between 3,649 and 3,001. At the same time “middling bettors” can find a ‘sweet spot’ middle of seven touchdown passes should Newton’s final tally fall between 19 and 25.
In this situation, $100 bettors would be laying out $230 (115 x 2) on each market for a total of $460 (230 x 2) on both markets. In reality, each bettor would only be risking a maximum of a potential $60 loss for a possible net return of $400 in profits. Welcome to the world of creating odds. Not only have you created minimum risk, but at the same time you enable a potential return in excess of six times your overall liability.
No matter where you stand as a bettor on Newton’s arrival in Boston, you can find numerous additional attractive markets to invest in ranging from MVP to Comeback Player of the Year.