Rookie Mac Jones is thrust into a starting role and the effects will be felt across the offense for fantasy managers
The quarterback battle in New England is over, and it ended unexpectedly. Cam Newton was released Tuesday morning, and rookie Mac Jones was named the Patriots' starting quarterback.
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Newton, the 2015 NFL MVP, was entering his second year with the team and was trying to hold off Jones, the Patriots' first-round draft pick out of Alabama, for the starting job. With Jones behind center, the fantasy stock of every skill position player in New England rises, and he becomes a viable fantasy backup option.
Jones's weapons aren't much on paper, but he has a diverse running back group, a solid crop of receivers, and two talented tight ends. He's also insured by one of the best offensive lines in football. Jones similarly had great protection at Alabama, which gave him the time to efficiently and effectively spread the ball around the field at a ridiculous 77% completion rate. He's not a threat to run like his predecessor, as Jones is much more stationary in the pocket. Given Tuesday's roster move, a true pocket-passer is clearly what head coach Bill Belichick wants in his signal-caller.
Below is a breakdown of the fantasy impact of Newton's release and Jones starting at quarterback have on each Patriots' skill-position groups.
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Running Backs
(Damien Harris-James White-Rhamondre Stevenson)
Harris had the highest average draft position (ADP) of any Patriots player even before Jones was named the starter, and that's bound to shoot up. Without Newton poaching goal-line carries, getting designed runs called for him, or taking off and scrambling, the rushing offense goes through Harris.
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Newton's exit from New England coupled with the trade of Sony Michel to the Rams are both massive shots in the arm for fantasy managers with Harris on their teams. For those who have yet to draft, you'll have to spend even greater draft capital to get Harris on your roster.
In 13 games last season, Harris carried the ball 137 times. The Patriots' top three rushers besides Harris from 2020 are no longer with the team, and together they leave behind a massive share in the running game. Newton matched Harris' 137 carries, Michel ran the ball 79 times and Rex Burkhead, who is now with the Texans, ate up 67 carries. Expect James White to still get the passing down work in the offense (Harris only had seven targets last season).
Rhamondre Stevenson impressed in the preseason, and he received ample opportunity to do so, getting 30 carries across three games. He broke off a 91-yard touchdown run against Washington in the preseason and averaged a ridiculous 7.2 yards per carry in running for an NFL-best 216 yards in the preseason.
Still, Harris is the running back you want in New England, and he stands to gain the most from Jones starting at QB.
Wide Receivers
(Nelson Agholor-Jakobi Meyers-Kendrick Bourne)
Jones doesn't have the same receiving options he did at Alabama, which is to say he doesn't have three first-rounders at his disposal. But the Patriots are trotting out a much improved receiving corps from what Newton had last season. Jones, a more traditional pocket pass than Newton, stands to gain from these offseason upgrades.
Agholor was not a sought-after receiver with Newton behind center, but he can likely perform in the same range he did in Las Vegas last season with Jones throwing to him. As the second option for Derek Carr (behind Darren Waller), Agholor transformed into a deep threat and posted career highs in yards per reception (18.7) and receiving yards (896). He hauled in eight touchdowns in the process for a WR21 finish. It's within reason for him to produce similarly in New England. With two tight ends to feed and a known pass-catching commodity at running back, Agholor won't get a ton of volume, but he proved last season he doesn't need it to produce. Jones showed he could throw the deep ball at Alabama and Agholor stands to gain. Consider Agholor a solid late-round depth addition on your bench.
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Meyers was the only Patriots pass-catcher worth rostering in 2020, and that's saying something considering he didn't catch a single touchdown. He led the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in only 14 games and never found the end zone. With Jones, who tossed 41 touchdown passes his final season in college, Meyers' will break his 29-game scoreless streak to start his career. Meyers could fill the role that DeVonta Smith did for Jones. Meyers would be hard-pressed to match Smith's ridiculous Heisman numbers, but being Jones' No. 1 option is worth something — Smith finished with 117 catches that season, second on the team was 55.
Very few offenses support three fantasy-relevant receivers, and with the targets bound for tight ends in the Patriots offense, Bourne isn't a viable option. He, of course, stands to gain from the QB change but not enough at this point to draft.
Tight Ends
(Hunter Henry-Jonnu Smith)
Smith and Henry will cannibalize each other's targets, but at least now those targets are worth more. Jones' top two tight end targets at Alabama were not big factors in the offense, but too much shouldn't be made of that considering the receivers he had on hand.
Both Patriots' tight ends currently have ADPs beyond the top 12 tight ends, and it would be shocking if, especially now, one of them didn't finish as a TE1. Bump both Smith and Henry up in your rankings but know that it will still be frustrating week-to-week to predict which tight end will be the focal point of the offense. I still prefer Henry based on him outproducing Smith to this point in their careers, but they'll both be involved.
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