Bets and analysis for Wednesday’s Cavaliers-Bucks game in Milwaukee. The Bucks are small home favorites.
The last week and change has been difficult for the Cavaliers and Bucks. Both teams, still near the top of the Eastern Conference standings, ripped off more wins in a row earlier this season than many teams have on the year. Still, they are both stumbling into this Wednesday night Central Division showdown.
Cleveland has dropped four in a row (tied for the NBA’s longest losing streak) and all of Milwaukee’s losses have come in the last 10 days— its lone win came in double overtime against the Thunder. Injuries will have an outsized impact on this contest with Jarret Allen (ankle) out and Donovan Mitchell (ankle) a game-time decision for the Cavaliers and Jrue Holiday (ankle) questionable and Grayson Allen (ankle) out for the Bucks.
Below is the betting breakdown for this conference clash, complete with an against the spread pick, over/under selection and prop bet.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Spread: Cavaliers +4.5 (-110) | Bucks -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Cavaliers (+155) | Bucks (-188)
Total: 217.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports
Cavaliers Betting Profile
Straight-Up Record: 8-5
Against The Spread Record: 8-5
Over/Under Record: 8-5
Points Per Game (Rank): 116 (9)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 108.9 (7)
Bucks Betting Profile
Straight-Up Record: 10-3
Against The Spread Record: 9-4
Over/Under Record: 5-8
Points Per Game (Rank): 111.5 (17)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 107 (5)
Spread Bet: Cavaliers +4.5 (-110)
After years of the Bucks dominating this series, the Cavaliers won three of four games last year—each by double-digits. And this team only got better by adding Mitchell. Cleveland is a rare underdog in this game and it has gone 2-2 against the spread and straight up in that position this season. Allen’s absence will open up the paint considerably for Giannis Antetokounmpo, but Evan Mobley can still apply pressure inside.
All of the Cavaliers’ losses this season have come by seven points or fewer. No matter how the game unfolds, they have been in virtually every contest come crunch time and their sharp three-point shooting will at the very least keep them close with the Bucks (as long as Mitchell plays). Not only has Milwaukee been losing games of late, but it’s been outright embarrassed by lesser teams and Cleveland coming to town is not what one would consider a get-right game. Even if the Cavs can’t win, Mitchell and Darius Garland will make sure it’s a tight one.
Over/Under Bet: Over 217.5 (-110)
This is a surprisingly low total for what these teams are capable of on offense. Of course, both are also among the best defensive teams in the league, but one of the top defenders in this game (Jarrett Allen) is already out and another (Holiday) could end up missing it as well.
The Cavaliers and Bucks both do damage from beyond the arc and their defense has been lacking during their respective rough patches. Getting somewhere in the neighborhood of 110 points out of each team seems well within reach and both teams are a threat to reach 120 or more points on their own.
Prop Bet: Donovan Mitchell Over 27.5 Points (-133)
Hitting a prop like this is becoming light work for Mitchell, the league’s fourth-leading scorer who’s been good for 31.6 PPG. He’s gone over 27.5 points in four consecutive games and he’s only failed to hit this mark in two of his 11 games as a Cavalier. Mitchell is shooting better from outside, getting to the line more often, taking more shots and playing more minutes per game than he ever has. All of that contributes to his scorching start on offense that will continue in Milwaukee.
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