Bets and analysis for Thursday’s Celtics-Bucks and Grizzlies-Nuggets games.
HED: Celtics-Bucks, Grizzlies-Nuggets Spread, Over/Under and Prop Bets
Postseason fates have largely been decided with a few games remaining before the regular-season finale Sunday.
The six playoff teams and four play-in teams in the East are set, though their exact order and the ensuing matchups are still being determined. The Celtics and Bucks play Thursday in a game that will help decide how the top four teams in the conference finish. Boston hols the second-best record in the East (50-30) and the Bucks and 76ers (49-30) are both a half game behind but even in the loss column.
And in the West, the first five playoff spots and the final three play-in tournament spots are spoken for. The Nuggets and Timberwolves are fighting for the six seed and final playoff spot in the conference. Denver can clinch it with a win Thursday against the Grizzlies, who are locked into the two seed.
Playoff positioning is plenty to play for, but Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo also has an outside chance at winning his third MVP award depending how his final three games go and how Milwaukee finishes. Similarly, MVP favorite Nikola Jokić can further cement his case to win the award in back-to-back seasons. Falling into the play-in tournament would be a ding on an otherwise monumental season.
Season record: 111-113-2
Guest pickers: 82-116
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Nam Y. Huh/AP
Boston Celtics (50-30) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (49-30)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Celtics +6.5 (-110) | Bucks -6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Celtics (+205) | Bucks (-250)
Total: Under 227.5 (-110) | Over 227.5 (-110)
Injuries: Celtics F Jayson tatum—Day-to-Day; Celtics G Jaylen Brown—Day-to-Day; Celtics C Al Horford—Day-to-Day; Celtics F Robert Williams III—Out;
Celtics Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 8-2
ATS Record: 41-36-3
O/U Record: 39-39-1
Points Per Game/Rank: 111.3/13
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 104.1/1
Boston blew out Chicago on Wednesday night for its third win in a row. The Celtics hit 17 three-pointers in their 117-94 victory and have now hit 40 shots from beyond the arc over their last two games. Their average margin of victory in those games is 32.5 points. The C’s now travel to Milwaukee on the second night of a back-to-back with the chance to create more distance between themselves and the third-place Bucks.
Bucks Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 6-4
ATS Record: 38-41
O/U Record: 40-39-1
Points Per Game/Rank: 115.2/3
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 111.9/18
Milwaukee also blew out the Bulls last time it played. The Bucks were in Chicago on Tuesday and came away with a 127-106 win despite DeMar DeRozan scoring 40 points. Brook Lopez scored a season-best and team-high 28 points in that game, a good sign for the center who returned from injury in mid-March.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Spread Pick: Celtics +6.5
Boston is 8-6 on the second night of back-to-backs, a respectable record that doesn’t scare me off picking the team to cover on the road with no rest against the defending champs. The Celtics also lead the season series 2-1 with wins by nine (in overtime) and 14. They lost by four on Christmas Day in the last matchup. Boston has been the better team of late and its defense is still intimidating without Robert Willians III. The Bucks dropped their past two games at home. They lost 153-119 to the Paul George-less Clippers (Antetokounmpo did not play in that game) and then lost to Dallas, 118-112. Jaylen Brown has been on a tear, Al Horford is stepping up in extended minutes and Tatum, always a threat to explode on offense, has exhibited great playmaking in recent games. Boston can certainly keep this game close and it’s not out of the question that it wins outright to take the season series and command of the two seed.
Over/Under Pick: Over 227.5
Celtics games hit the over half the time even with their great defense. Bucks games, with a better offense and a lesser defense, do so at a higher rate. Both teams have put up some high offensive totals in recent weeks, and Milwaukee has also allowed a few big outings. The way Boston has shot the ball from outside in the last two games, this seemingly modest over for a pair of top-10 offenses seems well within reach.
Prop: Celtics Over 110.5 Points (-110)
The Celtics have scored 111 or more points in each game against the Bucks this season. Their season average is 111.3 and they’ve scored 117 or more in each of their last three games. Milwaukee isn’t the defensive stopper it once was. Count on Boston to get into the mid-110s on offense.
Memphis Grizzlies (55-24) vs. Denver Nuggets (47-33)
Time: 9 p.m.
Spread: Grizzlies +4.5 (-110) | Nuggets -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Grizzlies (+155) | Nuggets (-188)
Total: Under 232.5 (-110) | Over 232.5 (-110)
Injuries: Grizzlies G Ja Morant—Day-to-Day; Grizzlies F Dillon Brooks—Day-to-Day; Nuggets F Jeff Green—Day-to-Day
Grizzlies Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 8-2
ATS Record: 51-27-1
O/U Record: 40-35-4
Points Per Game/Rank: 115.4/2
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 109.4/12
Memphis lost to the Jazz, 121-115, in overtime on Tuesday. That ended the Grizzlies’ seven-game winning streak and brought their record without Ja Morant to 20-3. It’s been no Morant, no problem for Memphis basically all season long. This game isn’t hugely important for the Grizzlies, who are locked into the two spot, but they also aren’t one to give 75% just because a game won’t affect their standing.
Nuggets Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 5-5
ATS Record: 36-44
O/U Record: 44-34-2
Points Per Game/Rank: 112.3/10
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 110/14
If Denver can beat Memphis for the first time all season it would secure a top-six seed. The Nuggets lost to the Spurs 116-97 on Tuesday despite 41 points from Jokić. It’s certainly a winnable game for Denver—none of its losses against Memphis have come by five or more points.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Spread Pick: Nuggets -4.5
Memphis is not a team that loses back-to-back games. It’s only happened once since Jan 1. The Nuggets aren’t losing with Jokić’s MVP case all but secured and the same for a guaranteed playoff spot. Win and in. Jokić will need more help than he got against San Antonio where just one of his teammates scored in double digits. He should get it in the form of Aaron Gordon and Will Barton. The Grizzlies have a good defense with Jaren Jackson Jr. disrupting opponents in the paint, but Jokić is on the verge of his second MVP for a reason and he’ll lead his team to a semi-comfortable victory with his back against a wall.
Over/Under Pick: Under 232.5
Everything about these teams makes me want to pick the over. They both go over way more than 50% of the time and are known to put up some sizable point totals. But in conjunction with my pick of Denver winning this game and doing so by five or more, I think the Nuggets run at their pace, slow the Grizzlies down and win their way. Memphis has seen three of their last five games stay under the point total and this high figure offers some leeway.
Prop: Nikola Jokić Rebounds Over 12.5 (-118)
Jokić is averaging 18 rebounds per game in three games this month. He’s gone over this total in each of his last five games and his season average of 13.7 per game is more than a full rebound more than this total. Memphis is a good rebounding team with Steven Adams manning the paint, but I’m still confident Jokić hits on the over.
DFS Value Plays
(Prices based on 7 p.m. main slate)
SG/PG D’Angelo Russell, Timberwolves (FD: $6,800 | DK: $6,800)
SG/PG De’Anthony Melton, Grizzlies ($5,600 | $5,600)
PF/SF Tobias Harris, 76ers ($6,700 | $7,100)
PF Jaxson Hayes, Pelicans ($6,400 | $5,400)
C Mo Bamba, Magic ($6,400 | $6,900)
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