Bets and analysis for Monday’s Game 4 Celtics-Bucks and Grizzlies-Warriors matchups. Both home teams are favored to take 3-1 series leads.
Two second-round series are at their tipping point.
Both the Bucks and Warriors are in position to take 3-1 series lead on their home courts Monday night. Each team split the first two games of their semifinals series against the Celtics and Grizzlies, respectively. After winning Game 3 on Saturday, Milwaukee and Golden State are that much closer to the conference finals.
Memphis and Boston aren’t likely to roll over, though the Grizzlies may be without their All-Star guard Ja Morant. Morant is listed as doubtful to play.
Regular-season record: 117-113-2
Play-in/playoffs record: 45-45
Check NBA Playoffs Odds and Lines at SI Sportsbook
Morry Gash/AP
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks (Milwaukee leads series, 2-1)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Celtics +1.5 (-118) | Bucks -1.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Celtics (+100) | Bucks (-118)
Total: Under 212.5 (-110) | Over 212.5 (-1100)
The Celtics’ Game 3 loss was a tough one to stomach. Marcus Smart was fouled with 4.6 seconds remaining and Boston trailing, 103-100. It was deemed a non-shooting foul and he went to the line for a pair of free throws. After connecting on the first, Smart expertly threw the second one off the backboard, corralled the rebound and missed the putback attempt. Al Horford sent the miss into the hoop, which would have tied the game, but his shot came after the buzzer sounded. Bucks win.
Boston stormed back in the fourth quarter after trailing by 13 points when the final frame began. Jaylen Brown and Horford deliver during Jayson Tatum’s worst game of the postseason. Tatum finished with just 10 points on 4-19 shooting; Brown had 27 points and 12 rebounds and Horford finished with 22 and 16.
View the original article to see embedded media.
For Milwaukee, it was more of the same—that being surviving on the singular greatness of Giannis Antetokounmpo with complementary play from Jrue Holiday. Antetokounmpo bullied his way to 42 points and 12 rebounds and he added eight assists. Holiday added 25 points and seven assists and they each took 30 shots.
The Celtics surely feel like they should have won that game the way the final few minutes unfolded. If Tatum had even an average game, they would have. But he didn’t. Now, Boston needs to win on the road to avoid going down 3-1. I think they can.
Tatum is due for a big game, Smart’s play has to pick up eventually and for as great as Antetokounmpo is, what he did Saturday will be difficult to replicate. The C’s hit 38 threes in the first two games and split. Then, they shot just 9-33 in Game 3. They’ll need their outside shooting to pick back up to even the series once again.
BETS: Celtics +1.5 (-118); Jaylen Brown Over 24.5 Points (-118); Al Horford Over 8.5 Rebounds (-134); Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 37.5 Points + Assists (-128)
Jeff Chiu/AP
No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 3 Golden State Warriors (Golden State leads series, 2-1)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Grizzlies +10.5 (-110) | Warriors -10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Grizzlies (+450) | Warriors (-599)
Total: Under 223.5 (-110) | Over 223.5 (-110)
Memphis is likely to be without its All-Star and leading playoff scorer, Morant, for Game 4. He injured his knee in Game 3 (the play he injured it on is the subject of great debate), which the Grizzlies lost decisively, 142-112. Dillon Brooks will return from his one-game suspension, which he earned for his flagrant foul on Gary Payton II in Game 2, but he alone cannot make up for Morant’s absence.
Morant is averaging 38.3 ppg against the Warriors on 52/45/80 shooting splits. He had 34 in each of his team’s losses and 47 in the Game 2 win. Desmond Bane, Memphis’ second-leading playoff scorer, has not played as well against Golden State as he did in the first round; Jaren Jackson Jr.’s foul troubles and poor shooting persist and Brandon Clarke has not been as impactful on the glass.
View the original article to see embedded media.
The Dubs are happy to challenge the Grizzlies to shootouts and they’ve won both games that have gone that way. Steph Curry and Jordan Poole are averaging 27 and 26 ppg, respectively, and Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson are chipping in about 16 ppg each. Golden State is winning the rebounding and turnover battles and has shut down everyone not named Morant. Golden State has the No. 1 offensive and net ratings in the postseason. It’s clear why they are the Finals favorites.
Without Morant, there’s little hope for a Grizzlies’ win. Even with him healthy and playing well for much of Game 3, Memphis fell by 30 points. The Grizzlies can try to channel the play that allowed them to amass a 20-5 record without Morant in the regular season, but the Warriors have been too good on offense for Memphis to keep up without its leading scorer and distributor. Golden State will take a 3-1 lead with a decisive win and Memphis will just have to hope Morant is healthy for Game 5.
BETS: Warriors -10.5 (-110); Jordan Poole Over 20.5 Points (-114)
Check the Latest Odds at SI Sportsbook
Get fantasy and betting analysis in your inbox by signing up for the Winners Club newsletter
More Betting, Fantasy and NBA:
• NHL Playoffs Betting Preview
• NBA Eastern Conference Betting Preview
• NBA Western Conference Betting Preview
• NBA Championship Futures
• NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
• NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
• NFL Draft Fantasy Winners and Losers
• MLB World Series Future Odds
• Ja Morant is Still the Warriors’ Nightmare