Bets and analysis for Wednesday’s Celtics-Suns game in Phoenix. The Celtics are small road favorites.
The top teams from the Eastern and Western conferences face one another for the first time this season Wednesday night in the desert.
It's Celtics-Suns at Footprint Center and Boston, which owns the best record in the NBA, is the favorite in this marquee matchup. The C's are 2–0 so far on their six-game road trip, while Phoenix returns to its home floor—where it is 12-2 on the year—after it dropped a game in Dallas on Monday.
Boston and Phoenix have split their two-game season series for the last four years, and this game between the last two Finals runner-ups could end up being an early-season championship preview.
Boston Celtics vs. Phoenix Suns Odds
Time: 10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Spread: Celtics -2.5 (+100) | Suns +2.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Celtics (-133) | Suns (+110)
Total: 230.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Celtics Betting Profile
Straight-Up Record: 20–5
Against The Spread Record: 16–9
Over/Under Record: 14–10–1
Points Per Game (Rank): 120.6 (1)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 112.6 (13)
Suns Betting Profile
Straight-Up Record: 16–8
Against The Spread Record: 14–10
Over/Under Record: 11–12–1
Points Per Game (Rank): 116.5 (7)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 109.3 (6)
Spread Bet: Celtics -2.5 (+100)
No team has won more home games so far than the Suns. Counter that with the fact that the Celtics have the best road record in the NBA, and something has to give. My lean is that it will be Phoenix, which dropped its most recent home game to the Rockets last week. Boston not only has the best mark in away games in the league, but it has been favored in all but one such game and is 6-5 against the spread in that scenario. It’s not the best record percentage in the league, but six wins against the spread as a road favorite are the most in basketball.
The Suns will be hard-pressed to slow down the C's in any meaningful way, even with their top-10 defensive unit. Monty Williams can throw Mikal Bridges at Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, but he can't guard both of them, and both players are threats to drop 30 points on any given night—it's become more of an anomaly when Tatum doesn't cross that threshold. One weak link for Phoenix is its three-point defense, which allows the fifth-fewest made threes per game but on 36% shooting, one of the highest percentages in the league. Boston, which hoists more than 40 threes per game and connects on 16.6, can and will capitalize on that.
Though the Celtics' defense isn't what it was in 2021, it still has capable wing defenders to throw at Devin Booker to hound him on the perimeter and Marcus Smart can challenge Cameron Payne, who's standing in for the injured Chris Paul, at the point of attack. Deandre Ayton could prove to be a challenge inside, but Boston has the edge in most matchups.
Over/Under Bet: Under 230.5 (-110)
Boston has the No. 1 offense in the league, and Phoenix is also in the top 10 on that side of the ball. As such, Celtics games hit the over a fair amount and Suns games do so about half the time, largely due to their stifling defense. But two surprising trends could be informative for this matchup.
In road games, the C's are 3–8–1 for the over, and the Suns are 6–8 at home. The under hit in Boston's last five away games, and quite a few of those contests had totals below 230.5. As for Phoenix, its last two games hit the over, but the four before that didn't, and both teams are in the bottom half of the league in pace of play. Despite the hype, this contest might not have the fireworks fans would expect.
Prop Bet: Jayson Tatum Points Plus Rebounds Over 37.5 (-118)
Tatum's season-long average for points and rebounds combined is 39.1, so he has a bit of leeway here. He's capable of hitting this total with his scoring output alone, but the added insurance of whatever he comes up with on the glass makes this bet even more enticing. Add in the fact that Tatum, who's taken yet another scoring leap this season, has finished with 11 or more rebounds in four consecutive games, and he might not even need to break 30 points to deliver.
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