The Chiefs have won at least 11 games in each of the last four seasons but their over/under at SI Sportsbook for the upcoming season is 10.5 wins.
The Chiefs are starting to resemble the 1990s/2000s Braves.
Despite excellence from Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs have just one title to show for it in this four-year stretch.
Last year’s team seemed well on its way to a third straight Super Bowl berth when it grabbed an 18-point first-half lead over the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game, but a second-half offensive meltdown instead saddled Kansas City with the dubious honor of blowing the biggest lead in AFC Championship Game history.
And now the roster changes have started.
AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds
Hill, wanting to be paid, is now with the Dolphins. The Chiefs will attempt to replace his production via the aggregate with free-agent signees JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdez-Scantling and an intriguing draft pick Skyy Moore.
The defense has traded Tyrann Mathieu for Justin Reid and hopes first-round pick George Karlaftis can help the pass rush.
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This newish roster still has the Chiefs with some of the best odds in the NFL, but they do not enter this year as the team to beat. Kansas City is behind the Bills at SI Sportsbook in AFC future odds and a slight AFC West favorite over the Chargers.
Kansas City has won at least 11 games in each of the last four seasons and seven of the last nine, but its over/under is just 10.5 wins.
Let’s see if the Chiefs can make it five straight seasons with at least 11 wins.
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Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Kansas City Chiefs Over/Under: 10.5 - O (-125) | U (-110)
2021-22 record: 12-5; First AFC West; 2-seed; Lost Championship Game vs. Bengals
AFC West future odds: +150 (First)
AFC future odds: +450 (Second)
Super Bowl future odds: +900 (Third)
Key additions: S Justin Reid, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, RB Ronald Jones
Key losses: WR Tyreek Hill, S Tyrann Mathieu, CB Charvarius Ward
Arrowhead Report offseason grade: B
By moving on from Hill and Mathieu, the Chiefs disrupted their short-term stability. In return, they gained the assets needed to completely rebuild a younger, cheaper defense that should pay dividends down the line. Offensively, short-term free agents such as Smith-Schuster and Valdes-Scantling were signed to keep the Chiefs’ offense humming as the team steps into a new era without Hill as the Chiefs’ top wide receiver.—Joshua Brisco
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SCHEDULE
Week 1: At Cardinals
Week 2: Chargers
Week 3: At Colts
Week 4: At Buccaneers
Week 5: Raiders
Week 6: Bills
Week 7: At 49ers
Week 8: BYE
Week 9: Titans
Week 10: Jaguars
Week 11: At Chargers
Week 12: Rams
Week 13: At Bengals
Week 14: At Broncos
Week 15: At Texans
Week 16: Seahawks
Week 17: Broncos
Week 18: At Raiders
This is an absolutely brutal first-place schedule with arguably 14 games against teams with playoff aspirations. Playing in the NFL’s toughest division doesn’t help.
Each team in the AFC West loaded up this offseason, and each game should be appointment television. It’s incredible to think that one team will have to finish last.
The Chiefs have dominated the AFC West by going 20-4 during the four years with Mahomes as their starter. Mahomes also beat Denver in his first start in 2017.
Kansas City is 8-0 versus the Broncos, 7-1 versus the Raiders and 5-3 versus the Chargers in this stretch, although one loss to the Chargers came in a Week 17 game.
A 4-2 projection, the worst Kansas City has fared in the division with Mahomes, seems like a fair projection. While 3-3 would certainly be reasonable, we are willing to gamble the Chiefs won’t have their worst divisional record this year.
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The Chiefs’ remaining AFC games feature the Bills, Titans and Jaguars coming to Kansas City, while they will visit the Colts, Texans and Bengals.
Let’s automatically give them two wins versus the Texans and Jaguars to push the season total up to six.
Kansas City is a home underdog against Buffalo and a sizable favorite against the Titans. The Chiefs are small favorites at Indianapolis.
A 2-2 projection for those four games seems fair, and we tend to be conservative with these games, so let’s stick with that mark instead of getting greedy and going for 3-1.
That has the Chiefs at 8-4 with the NFC games on tap.
The Chiefs also have the unfortunate draw of playing the NFC West teams, and their crossover game is against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
Kansas City will visit the 49ers, Cardinals and Buccaneers and welcome the defending Super Bowl champion Rams and Seahawks.
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
A schedule advantage the Chiefs to receive is the Cardinals game coming in Week 1 when Arizona will be without DeAndre Hopkins. The Chiefs are three-point favorites for that game, and we can see them starting the season with a nice road win.
The other two road games will be tough, and Kansas City is currently an underdog at Tampa Bay and a one-point favorite at San Francisco.
The 49ers game coming after the home showdown with the Bills makes that a potential letdown spot should the Chiefs win versus the Bills.
Again, we like to be conservative here. Let’s say the Chiefs lose both of those road games. That has them at 9-6 with the two home games left.
The Chiefs will beat the Seahawks, so this bet is riding on whether the Chiefs can beat the Rams at home. The Chiefs are 2.5-point favorites to win, and we think they can win a big game at home in a potential Super Bowl preview.
A projected win would have the Chiefs at 11-6.
What we like here is that we went very cautious with our bets and still got to 11 wins.
We could easily project another division win for 5-1 or have Kansas City go 3-1 versus the Colts, Bengals, Titans and Bills instead of 2-2. An 0-2 mark against the 49ers and Buccaneers could also be 1-1 since the Chiefs are favored against San Francisco.
There’s certainly a margin of error that makes us feel safe.
BET: Over 10.5 wins (-125)
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