College Football National Championship Odds Shift After Upset-Filled Weekend

Nov 09, 2022

Georgia is now the heavy favorite at SI Sportsbook to win the national title following an upset-heavy weekend.

The Georgia Bulldogs are now far and away the top dog in the college football national championship futures market.

After the defending national champions downed top-ranked Tennessee, 27-13, on Saturday at home, they took over the No. 1 spot in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, which were released Tuesday evening.

Georgia’s national title odds shortened accordingly from +200—previously tied with Ohio State for the best odds—to prohibitive -120 odds.

The Buckeyes’ odds lengthened marginally to +225 after they struggled in a 21-7 win against Northwestern as massive favorites. They still retain the No. 2 ranking, though; it’s Georgia, then Ohio State and then everyone else after Tennessee, Clemson and Alabama each lost last weekend.

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The Volunteers’ odds dropped from +750 (fourth-best) to +900 (still fourth-best) and they are now likely to miss the SEC championship game. An 11-1 SEC team that misses the conference championship with a quality loss could still get a spot in the playoff—it’s worked for Alabama before, anyway.

Michigan’s odds went from +950 (tied for fifth-best) to +650 (third) following its 52-17 win against Rutgers. The outcome of the Big Ten (and which team it sends to the championship game and playoff) hinges almost entirely on the regular-season finale in Columbus, Ohio, between the Wolverines and Buckeyes.

The two teams that hurt their playoff chances the most are two of its usual competitors. Alabama lost to LSU, 32-31, and will now need to win out and get some help from the Tigers just to sneak back to the SEC title game against Georgia. That’s a big ask, and the Tide still have a road game this weekend at No. 11 Ole Miss and the Iron Bowl on their schedule. Alabama fell three spots in the CFP rankings to No. 9 and its odds dipped from +275 all the way to +8000.

Clemson fell even further than the Tide did after a 35-14 loss on the road to Notre Dame. The Tigers had +950 odds (fifth-best) and now can also be found at +8000 after they slid six spots to No. 10.

The other teams of interest are No. 4 TCU, one of the last remaining undefeated teams, No. 7 LSU and three Pac-12 teams: No. 6 Oregon, No. 8 USC and No. 12 UCLA.

The Horned Frogs might be the best value on the table at +8000 odds. They would have to run the table to make their first playoff appearance, though, and TCU is a large underdog on the road this week against Texas. LSU also controls its own destiny and can win the SEC West, so long as it survives on the road against Arkansas and Texas A&M. LSU is +3300 to win it all.

Then there’s Oregon, which only has one loss on its record that came Week 1 against top-ranked Georgia at a neutral site. The Ducks are undefeated in Pac-12 play but still have No. 25 Washington and No. 13 Utah to contend with before the end of the regular season. The Ducks’ +1200 odds are fifth-best.

The two Los Angeles schools will sort themselves out when they play in two weeks’ time—USC has a loss to Utah and UCLA lost to Oregon, and the winner could end up in the championship game against the Ducks.

The top three games to watch this weekend that figure to affect the playoff picture, one way or another, are Alabama-Ole Miss, Washington-Oregon and TCU-Texas. Seeing as several of the top teams still have games left on their schedule against one another, things are far from set.

2023 College Football National Championship Odds

CFP No. 1 Georgia: -120
CFP No. 2 Ohio State: +225
CFP No. 3 Michigan: +650
CFP No. 5 Tennessee: +900
CFP No. 6 Oregon: +1200
CFP No. 7 LSU +3300
CFP No. 8 USC: +4000
CFP No. 10 Clemson: +8000
CFP No. 4 TCU: +8000
CFP No. 9 Alabama: +8000
CFP No. 25 Washington: +8000