Using over/under season totals to project fantasy points gives us another set of data to prepare for drafts.
In the wild world of fantasy football, there is a wide range of opinions and projections to make future decisions about players. The goal is to understand previous results, current team structures and each player's skill set to develop rankings of the current inventory. In addition, the growth of the sports betting market adds another untapped market to compare each player's potential outcome.
Below is a list of betting data converted to fantasy points for the top 12 quarterbacks based on their over/under season totals. Unfortunately, sportsbooks don't list each piece of all players’ stats to make a complete comparison with projections.
Note: For the fantasy points conversion, I used four points for passing touchdowns, six points for rushing scores, 0.05 per passing yard, and 0.1 for each rushing yard.
Any data highlighted in green shows the latest over/under totals from the sportsbook. I filled any missing betting points with last year's stats (yellow). I then ranked the quarterbacks by fantasy points using their over/under total data.
Based on the draft flow over the past two weeks in the National Fantasy Football Championship, the top five quarterbacks fall almost in line with the betting data lines.
Some takeaways:
Tom Brady, Buccaneers
Both my projections (ninth) and NFFC (10th) have Tom Brady ranked lower than his value at the sportsbook (sixth). Tampa Bay added Russell Gage, Julio Jones and Kyle Rudolph, but it hasn't moved the needle in my projections or his value in the high-stakes market. Brady continues to outperform expectations, but his fantasy magic may not be in the elite cards in 2022.
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Kyler Murray, Cardinals
I have Kyler Murray rated the highest (second), pointing to an easy win in his passing yards (4,050.5) and passing touchdown (25.5) betting props. I expect him to have a rebound year in the run game while the structure of their receiving corps looks much stronger this season.
Justin Herbert, Chargers
On the surface, my projections for Justin Herbert look out of line from his draft and betting rank (second). Looking at my expected fantasy point total (413.60), he is only one rushing score from fourth and 17 fantasy points from ranking second. One can make a case for six different quarterbacks to finish behind Josh Allen in scoring. Remember, I'm making the projections that come out as rankings. Understanding his outlook and taking in his potential ceiling is essential. I like his top three receiving options better than who the Chiefs have to offer, so I would draft him over Patrick Mahomes in drafts at the correct price point.
Joe Burrow, Bengals
I'm bullish on Joe Burrow’s ceiling. He has two excellent young wideouts and an improved offensive line. The combination of Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst gives the Bengals the complementary receiving depth to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns and yards. I have him ranked fourth while sitting eighth and sixth at the sportsbook and the NFFC.
Where's the love?
Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers finished sixth and eighth, respectively, in fantasy scoring in 2022 but both players rank lower in the NFFC (12th and 14th) and the Sports Illustrated projections (15th and 16th). Stafford lost some steam due to his questionable right elbow, and he ranks well below the top quarterbacks in production in the run game. Rodgers remains an elite passer and will improve the receivers around him. Unfortunately, the Packers lack big-name players at wide receiver, so it isn't easy to project him higher.
Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr should be attractive cheat quarterbacks based on their receiving talent. They both have top-tier lead wideouts. However, the Raiders appear to have the better depth, giving Carr a slightly higher ranking in the NFFC and the Sports Illustrated rankings. I consider either option viable after the top eight quarterbacks.
More takeaways:
Trey Lance, 49ers
The 49ers named Trey Lance their starting quarterback, but they also left a window open where he could get the hook if he doesn't perform well and win games. He has three excellent receiving options, and Lance will be a factor in the run game. Fantasy drafters have backed off him lately (ranked 11th), but that’s higher than his outlook at the sportsbook (16th). In this case, the eye in the sky may have more information than the betting and fantasy public. His other strike is that San Francisco will succeed in scoring on the ground. If his price point starts to slide even more, I'd love to take a flier on him as a QB2.
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Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Lack of resume in the pros leads to not many fantasy drafters fighting for Tua Tagovailoa (17th), and the sportsbooks have a similar feeling (ranked 18th). I view him as an excellent value with backend QB1 value. Adding Tyreek Hill gives Miami a better structure to their receiving corps. Tagovailoa is a top talent, but he has to prove it on the field before drawing more attention in drafts.
Jameis Winston, Saints
When adding in the rushing stats for Jameis Winston, I probably gave him too much credit, considering he's coming off a significant knee injury. However, I'm intrigued with him as a QB2 if Michael Thomas is truly recovered from his past ankle woes. New Orleans has a top pass-catching back (Alvin Kamara) while adding a slick, high-ceiling wide receiver (Chris Olave) in this year's draft. Adam Trautman and Jarvis Landry give him the tools to pass for 5,000 yards and 30 scores if the Saints open their passing game.
Justin Fields, Bears
I pulled all the stats for Justin Fields from the over/under lines at the sportsbook, but it didn't paint a favorable picture. He ranked 22nd but 16th by drafters in the NFFC. I’m not in his camp (25th) due to questionable receiving depth while being somewhat on par with his expected production in rushing yards (513 – over/under of 525.5). Fields won’t offer an edge on passing yards or touchdowns.
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