Using over/under season totals to project fantasy points gives us another set of data to prepare for drafts.
In the wild world of fantasy football, there are a wide range of opinions and projections to make future decisions about players. The goal is to understand previous results, current team structures and each player’s skill set to develop rankings of the current inventory. In addition, the growth of the sports betting market adds another untapped market to compare each player’s potential outcome.
- Players Props vs. ADP: Quarterbacks
Below is a list of betting data converted to fantasy points for the top 12 running backs. Unfortunately, sportsbooks don’t list each piece of all player’s stats to make a complete comparison with projections.
Note: For the fantasy points conversion, I used PPR scoring.
Any data highlighted in green shows the latest over/under totals from the sportsbook. I filled any missing betting points for receiving with last year’s stats (yellow), with some adjustments. For any injured player, I used either their previous history or a conservative outlook with limited information.
For some of the running backs, there wasn’t a rushing over/under total but a combined yards baseline for betting.
The best I could do is piece together 16 running back from the sports betting market.
Some takeaways:
Najee Harris, Steelers
The prop line for combined yards for Najee Harris was 1,600.5 yards. He gained 1,647 yards on 381 touches last year despite ranking poorly in yards per rush (3.9) and per catch (6.3). Harris ranked third in the sportsbook converted stats, compared to fourth in the National Fantasy Football Championship and seventh in my projections at Sports Illustrated. For him to show more growth this year, Pittsburgh needs to solve its offensive line issues, and Mitchell Trubisky must play better behind center. The Steelers love to ride their lead back, so Harris should, at a minimum, grind his way to another productive fantasy season.
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D’Andre Swift, Lions
The only thing holding back D’Andre Swift from delivering elite production is missed games. Over his first two seasons, he played in 26 of his 33 possible matchups. His over/under for combined yards (1,400.5) requires him to stay healthy. Swift has the talent to rank highly in pass-catching, helping his floor in PPR formats. All markets have him ranked about the same (6, 7, 6). His next step is proving he can handle more touches.
Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers
With no listing in the early season-long player props, are the sportsbooks giving us a tell about Fournette’s expected path in 2022? I have him ranked 17th while NFFC drafters continue to treat him as a top 12 back (11th).
Saquon Barkley, Giants
His baseline in combined yards (1,300.5) and rushing touchdowns (7.5) graded well in the prop market. I added 54 catches and a pair of scores via the air based on his results over the past three seasons. Barkley ranks 13th at running back in the high-stakes market, but I’ve seen multiple drafters in the past week willing to place a higher bet on him. His outlook at the sportsbook (10th) points to a buying opportunity.
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Javonte Williams, Broncos
His outlook at each data point (13, 12, 14) is in a tight range, meaning that the public, sportsbook and my projections have almost the same opinion about Williams. Denver will certainly rotate in two backs, so he can’t push higher up the rankings without more scoring chances and a higher opportunity in touches. Russell Wilson improves the Broncos’ offense tremendously, inviting a lot more production for all parties.
Travis Etienne, Jaguars
The sportsbook data appears to be trailing the fantasy passion for Travis Etienne in August. His rushing yards (700.5) and combined yards (1,025.5) look relatively modest when adding his talent. James Robinson will get in the way, but the question is: How much? I expect a breakout-type season (ranked 12th) while he sits 16th in the prop betting market.
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys
Despite the “best shape of his life” report in mid-May, Ezekiel Elliott has an over/under of 875.5 rushing yards. In his six years with the Cowboys, he’s gained 979 yards or more on the ground every season. His play dropped off in 2020 and 2021, with an injury being a factor last year. The NFFC crowd ranks him 19th, while Elliott sits 22nd in my running back projection and 14th at the sportsbook.
Alvin Kamara, Saints
A looming six-game suspension led to Kamara having no listing in the prop market in any category in early August. With an entire season of games, I expect a bounce back in all areas while projecting him for 17 contests until the ball drops. If his name appears in any form at the sportsbook, I will consider it a hint of his potential starting path in 2022.
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