Cowboys Over/Under Wins Total Betting Breakdown

Jul 18, 2022

The Cowboys went 12-5 and won the NFC East last season, and their over/under at SI Sportsbook for the upcoming season is 10.5 wins.

Regular-season wins aren’t the problem for the Cowboys.

No, it’s those pesky playoff wins that flummox Dallas.

Dallas returned to the playoffs last year following a two-year absence by winning the NFC East with a 12-5 record only to yet again flop in the postseason. The Mike McCarthy-led squad fell at home to the 49ers in the wild-card round.

That home loss overshadowed a positive season for Dallas that featured Micah Parsons being named the Defensive Rookie of the Year.

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: Bills | Patriots | Dolphins | Jets

Dallas is poised for another strong season in 2022, but the Cowboys have to prove they belong in the upper echelon of Super Bowl contenders. The roster is still stout, but Dallas will be without Amari Cooper, Randy Gregory and La’el Collins.

SI Sportsbook has set the Cowboys’ over/under at 10.5 wins, one of the highest totals in the league. Let’s see which bet we should make.

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook

Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Dallas Cowboys Over/Under: 10.5 - O (-110) | U (-125)

2021-22 record: 12-5; First NFC East; 3-seed; Lost divisional round vs. 49ers
NFC East future odds: +110 (First)
NFC future odds: +800 (Fifth)
Super Bowl future odds: +1600 (Tied-seventh)

Key additions: WR James Washington, OL Tyler Smith, DE Dante Fowler Jr.
Key losses: WR Amari Cooper, OL La’El Collins, DE Randy Gregory

Cowboys Country offseason grade: C

The theme of the Cowboys’ offseason has been losing more players than they’ve gained. Key pieces from last season are gone from both sides of the ball including Cooper and Collins on offense, and Gregory on defense.

The offensive line was bordering on questionable status last season with age and injuries catching up with long-time staple Tyron Smith and the sub-par performance of center Tyler Biadasz. Dallas drafted Smith at No.24 but that’s commonly regarded to be a stretch. While it’s possible Smith works out, the pick seemed like a reach.

Dallas traded away Cooper and most of the receiver experience with him. It will rely on CeeDee Lamb—in just his third pro season—to take over. Tolbert was taken in the third round but if he can’t contribute immediately, this team is in trouble. Michael Gallup won’t be available to start the season because of his Week 17 ACL injury last season. —Tim Hamm

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SCHEDULE

Week 1: Buccaneers
Week 2: Bengals
Week 3: At Giants
Week 4: Commanders
Week 5: At Rams
Week 6: At Eagles
Week 7: Lions
Week 8: Bears
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: At Packers
Week 11: At Vikings
Week 12: Giants
Week 13: Colts
Week 14: Texans
Week 15: At Jaguars
Week 16: Eagles
Week 17: At Titans
Week 18: At Commanders

We always start our breakdowns with the division battles.

The NFC East isn’t all that tough and Dallas went 6-0 last year, but the Eagles should be strong and the Commanders should be better with Carson Wentz under center. Sorry, Giants fans. Your team is still at least one year away from respectability.

While the Cowboys didn’t lose in the division last year, their roster is a bit weaker this year and the Eagles have improved, so let’s bank on a split there. The Cowboys could go 4-0 against Washington and New York, but let’s play it safe with 3-1.

That has us at 4-2 before we get to the remaining NFC games.

Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Dallas welcomes the Buccaneers, Lions and Bears to Jerry World, while visiting the Packers, Rams and Vikings. The home slate is fine since the Lions and Bears shouldn’t be rough, while it is a tough road schedule with playoff and Super Bowl contenders.

The season opener against Tampa Bay is tough. The line has been dropping but the Buccaneers are still favored by two. We tend to be conservative here with wins and losses for this particular bet, so let’s say that’s a loss.

Dallas can certainly win the Vikings game in Minneapolis, and the game is currently a pick’em, so let’s go 1-2 with those three road games. The Rams and Packers are—on paper—better than the Cowboys and Dallas is the underdog in both games.

That has the Cowboys at 7-5 with the AFC slate remaining.

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The NFC East faces the AFC South this season and the Cowboys’ addtional crossover game is the AFC champion Bengals coming to Dallas. Dallas welcomes the Colts and Texans, while it will visit the Titans and Jaguars.

Here’s where we’re going to hedge. The Bengals game follows the Buccaneers matchup and we just don’t see the Cowboys going 0-2 at home to start the year. But we’re not confident in 2-0 either, so we’re going to go with 1-1 in those games. The Cowboys are currently small 1.5-point favorites over Cincinnati.

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So if you want to flip the results and have the Cowboys beat the Buccaneers instead of the Bengals, that still gets us to 8-5.

Dallas can beat the Texans and Jaguars and we’ll go safe and say the Cowboys split the Colts-Titans duo. Dallas is favored over Indianapolis but an underdog to Tennessee. That gets us to a final record of 11-6.

Now, let’s look back and see if any adjustments need to be made.

NFC East: 4-2 - If anything, we could go 5-1 here.
Bucs/Bengals home games: 1-1 - Seems about right.
Packers/Rams/Vikings road games: 1-2 - Seems fair.
Titans/Colts games: 1-1 - Again, seems smart on paper.

If the Cowboys take care of the cupcakes on their schedule in the Lions, Bears, Texans and Jaguars, then we’re looking pretty with the over on 10.5 wins.

The best part is we get better odds on the over than the under!