Plus, fantasy football positional ADP reports and the best scoring system for your leagues.
Good morning! This is the final week of the last month without football—NFL or college—until March. Do with that information what you will but, personally, I’m rather pumped.
In honor of that, this is a football-heavy edition of Winners Club, complete with a preview of the NFC East, a fantasy football ADP check-in and a breakdown of the best fantasy scoring system.
Draft season is fast approaching and we’re here to help you prepare. Keep reading the newsletter every week to prepare for your draft(s) and be sure to consult our 2022 Fantasy Football Draft kit!
Cowboys Favored to Repeat as NFC East Winners
There hasn’t been a repeat winner in the NFC East since the Eagles went back-to-back in 2003-04. Since then, the division has been a model of parity.
The Eagles took the crown in 2019, then the Commanders (at the time, the Football Team) won the division in 2020 despite going just 7-9 and the Cowboys came out on top in 2021. The Giants haven’t won it in a decade, but that drought hasn’t stopped the other three teams from trading the title year after year.
Dallas is poised to break that streak in 2022 with the highest over/under win total in the division despite some key losses on both sides of the ball.
Introducing the second installment of the over/under betting breakdown:
(The AFC East kicked off the series last week. Next up: AFC South.)
Dallas Cowboys: 10.5 — Over (+100) | Under (-138)
NFC East future odds: +110 (First)
NFC future odds: +800 (Fifth)
Super Bowl future odds: +1600 (Tied-seventh)
“Dallas is poised for another strong season in 2022, but the Cowboys have to prove they belong in the upper echelon of Super Bowl contenders. The roster is still stout, but Dallas will be without Amari Cooper, Randy Gregory and La’el Collins.”—Matt Ehalt
Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Philadelphia Eagles: 8.5 — Over (-175) | Under (+130)
NFC East future odds: +175 (Second)
NFC future odds: +1400 (Tied-sixth)
Super Bowl future odds: +2800 (Tied-14th)
“Jalen Hurts enters his third year and second as the starting quarterback. Hurts displayed his mobility last year, but there are questions as to whether or not he can be an accurate passer. With the addition of A.J. Brown, plus DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, the pressure will be on Hurts to take another big step forward.”—Jen Piacenti
Washington Commanders: 7.5 — Over (-133) | Under (-105)
NFC East future odds: +500 (Third)
NFC future odds: +2500 (10th)
Super Bowl future odds: +6600 (T-22nd)
“The Commanders are swirling in controversy in the offseason, but if they have one thing working in their favor, it's that they're tied for the easiest schedule in the NFL.”—Kyle Wood
New York Giants: 7.5 — Over (+110) | Under (-150)
NFC East future odds: +800 (Fourth)
NFC future odds: +4000 (Tied-11th)
Super Bowl future odds: +10000 (Tied-25th)
“New York, who owns a dreadful 22-59 (.272) record since 2017, is anticipating it drafted future cornerstones on both sides of the ball in the NFL draft after selecting defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux and offensive tackle Evan Neal.”—Frank Taddeo
Seth Wenig/AP
All that said about individual teams’ hopes for the year, which squad is the best bet to win the division? Find the answer from Shawn Childs here in the divisional futures breakdown.
Taking Stock of Positional ADPs
Understanding and taking into account ADP is essential to fantasy success. So first, what is ADP? It’s average draft position.
In our fantasy football dictionary, it’s defined as “A report that lists NFL players by where they are being selected in fantasy drafts on average. ADP is a useful draft preparation tool.”
So now that you know what it is, allow Childs to dive into the ADP reports for QB, RB and WR to help you understand individual player values as well as positional value and how to apply both when drafting your fantasy team.
Below is the link to each position’s ADP report, as well as the five players with the lowest ADP at their respective position.
Quarterback: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow
Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
Running back: Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, Dalvin Cook
Wide receiver: Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs
What’s the Best Fantasy Scoring System?
Fantasy football league members squabble each summer about making changes to their settings, no matter how minor or drastic. One of the most major changes your league can institute is a shift in the scoring system.
Changing how points are awarded completely changes the value of different players and different positions.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
There’s standard, four-point or six-point passing touchdowns, PPR, half-PPR and tight end premium.
Matt De Lima laid out how each works, addressed some of the pros and cons for each and ultimately weighed in on what he believes the best scoring system is.
In Other News
No Timeline Set for Kamara Discipline: Alvin Kamara is due to appear in court a week from today after his February arrest on felony battery charges. There is no timetable for a disciplinary decision, though there’s reportedly a feeling around the league that the Saints’ running back could be suspended.
Celtics Emerge as Potential KD Landing Spot: Boston is in trade talks to acquire Kevin Durant nearly a month after he asked out of Brooklyn. Any package would reportedly be built around All-Star forward Jaylen Brown—Jayson Tatum is off limits in trade talks.
Quarterback Target Tendency Data, Explained: Understanding how signal-callers distribute the ball to different position groups is important to understand and it could influence fantasy draft decisions. See which QBs throw to their RBs, WRs and TEs the most and least often.
Thank you for reading Winners Club! Remember to follow us on Twitter @SI_Fantasy and @SI_Betting and visit @Michael_Fabiano’s account for the weekly fantasy football mailbag, which will be answered in the Friday edition of the newsletter.