Bets and analysis for Friday’s Diamondbacks-Phillies, Rays-Twins and Dodgers-Giants games.
Time to head into the weekend with our MLB bets!
We are off to a 22-16 start to the season on SI Sportsbook and 19 of those wins paid plus-money.
If you’re just starting to follow along, in my MLB bets series I try to only pick plus-money bets or bets that have very little juice.
Our bankroll strategy is for our wins to pay more than we invested. Sometimes that means the “risk” is higher, but so far our bankroll is healthy.
You can also track along with all my bets across all sports on Sharprank.
Bet the Latest MLB Odds and Lines at SI Sportsbook
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Arizona Diamondbacks (28-31) at Philadelphia Phillies (28-29)
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks (+120) | Phillies (-143)
- Run line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-175) |Phillies -1.5 (+145)
- Total: 8.5 - Over (-110) | Under (-110)
The Phillies are on a seven-game winning streak heading into Friday and will send Kyle Gibson (3-2, 4.40) to the bump at home. Gibson has struggled in a couple of starts this year, but overall he has been solid at home with a 3.48 ERA. Meanwhile the Philadelphia bullpen has been dialed in with the lowest ERA in the league since June 1.
View the original article to see embedded media.
Arizona will send ace Zac Gallen (4-1, 2.40) to the bump and it is surely hoping he goes deep into the game as the D-Backs’ bullpen has an ERA of 8.10 in June.
For the month of June, the Phillies have averaged the most runs per game at 7.57. The Diamondbacks have managed only 3.63 across that span.
Players to watch:
Bryce Harper is always a threat, and he’s batting .348 with five home runs in June.
Kyle Schwarber is suddenly mashing again, batting .357 with four homers this month.
Christian Walker has cooled of late but he still has a hard-hit rate of 47.4%
Yes, Gallen can keep the D-Backs in this game but the Phillies are hot and I am going to try to ride the wave.
BET: Phillies -1.5 (+140)
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Tampa Bay Rays (34-23) vs. Minnesota Twins (33-26)
- Moneyline: Rays (+100) | Twins (-118)
- Run line: Rays -1.5 (+155) | Twins +1.5 (-188)
- Total: 9.5 - Over (-133) | Under (+110)
The Twins lost a demoralizing 10-7 game Thursday night to the Yankees after starting the game with three consecutive homers off ace Gerrit Cole and lighting him up for seven runs. Their bullpen is tired, and now has a 6.00 ERA in June.
On Friday, they will start with lefty Devin Smeltzer (2-0, 1.93), who has been solid. Smeltzer has not allowed much hard contact, but he doesn’t strike many batters out.
View the original article to see embedded media.
On the other side, Drew Rasmussen (5-2, 3.02) gets the start for the Rays. Rasmussen has been solid for the Rays. He went seven innings and allowed no earned runs in his last outing versus the White Sox. The Rays’ bullpen is in good shape, with a 1.43 ERA in June - only allowing seven runs across 30 innings.
Players to Watch:
Byron Buxton continues to be one of the best hitters in baseball when he’s healthy. He’s batting .391 with four home runs in June, including two Thursday.
Harold Ramirez has a hard-hit rate in the top 8% of the league and he’s batting .364 versus left-handed pitching.
These teams are fairly evenly matched, so I like the plus-money for the road team with the stronger bullpen.
BET: Rays Moneyline (+100)
Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers (37-20) vs. San Francisco Giants (30-26)
- Moneyline: Dodgers (-154) | Giants (+130)
- Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (+105) | Giants +1.5 (-125)
- Total: 8.5 - Over (-125) | Under (+105)
What’s up with Walker Buehler?
Buehler (6-2, 3.84) has blown up two starts in a row, most recently lasting only 2 1/3 innings while surrendering five earned runs to the Mets. In his previous start he went six innings, but surrendered four earned runs to the lowly Pirates. Hmmmm.
View the original article to see embedded media.
What’s up with Jakob Junis?
Junis (3-1, 2.51) is somehow putting together the best year of his career, pitching to a 2.51 ERA and a .91 ERA. All of this while allowing plenty of hard contact and striking out only seven batters per nine. Hmmmmm.
Both of these teams have put up about 4.5 runs per game during June, and are not as hot as they were a month ago.
The Dodgers’ bullpen has blown four of five save opportunities this month and has an ERA of 5.67 for June.
The Giants have blown both of their save opportunities. Their June ERA is 4.55.
Players to watch:
Trea Turner is batting .309 versus right-handed pitchingwith five home runs.
Mike Yastrzemski is batting .300 in 20 career at bats versus Buehler.
Are the Dodgers the better team? Yes. Is Buehler a better pitcher? Yes. The Dodgers have won both games vs. the Giants this season.
But, I can’t turn down plus-money for the home dogs when the Dodgers aren’t enough better right now.
BET: Giants Moneyline (+130)
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