The 49ers haven't covered the spread in six of their last eight against teams with a winning record.
Former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel will return to San Francisco on Sunday to face his old team. The quick turnaround he's overseen in Miami—along with the leap taken by Tua Tagovailoa—has been one of the biggest stories in the NFL this season.
Now, the Dolphins face one of their toughest challenges of the year on a field where the 49ers have been tough to beat. San Francisco is 4-1 at Levi’s Stadium with their only loss to the Chiefs. The Niners carry a four-game winning streak into Week 13 and stand atop the NFC West.
Miami has won five in a row and is also first in its division. The Dolphins have yet to lose a game that Tagovailoa started and finished, and he's worked his way into the MVP conversation.
These teams have identical records against the spread, though Miami has struggled on the road. Two of its three losses have come in away games, and it eked out close contests recently against Detroit and Chicago on the road, two inferior teams.
Dolphins vs. 49ers Odds
Moneyline: Miami (+165) | San Francisco (-200)
Spread: MIA +3.5 (+100) | SF -3.5 (-118)
Total: 46.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Dec. 4, 2022 | 4:05 p.m. ET | Fox
Dolphins Straight-Up Record: 8-3
Dolphins Against the Spread Record: 6-5
49ers Straight-Up Record: 7-4
49ers Against the Spread Record: 6-5
Bet on Dolphins-49ers at SI Sportsbook
The most recent meeting between these teams was in 2020, and the Dolphins came away with a 43-17 win. So much has changed for both teams since that game.
Even though McDaniel comes from Kyle Shanahan's coaching tree, these teams win in very different ways. The 49ers have the best defense in football. They allow the fewest points (15.7) and yards (281.7) in the NFL. Just last week, they shut out the Saints (13-0).
San Francisco's offense has talent all over, especially after the midseason acquisition of Christian McCaffrey. Still, it's a slightly above-average unit that would prefer to run over its opponents rather than beat them deep. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has five touchdowns and no interceptions over his last two games, and he has a 16-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the year with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle as his top targets.
The Dolphins have the league's sixth-highest scoring offense (25.6 ppg) and the second-best passing attack in football (291.9 yards per game). The dual threat in the receiving game of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle puts pressure on defenses, and Tagovailoa has been able to find them both in space, often to great success—Hill leads the league in receiving yards. Miami relies a lot less on its running attack, led by former 49ers running back Jeff Wilson. Left tackle Terron Armstead has been ruled out, which could affect how much time Tagovailoa has to throw and the success of the ground game against San Francisco's ferocious front.
The defense ranks in the league's bottom half and is especially vulnerable against the pass. It's held up the last two weeks against questionable competition but allowed 32 points to the Bears three games ago.
Odds and Betting Insights
Miami games hit the under 55.6% of the time (6-5), and San Francisco has done so in 63.6% of its games (7-4).
The over is 3-2 in the last five Dolphins games, and the same goes for the 49ers, who began the season with four games in a row where the under hit.
Miami is 1-1 against the spread as an away underdog, and San Francisco is 0-4 against the spread as a home favorite.
More Betting, Fantasy and NFL:
• NFL Week 13 Odds, Matchups
• U.S.-Netherlands Odds
• Chiefs Pass Bills as Super Bowl Favorites
• Week 13 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: RB
• NFL Power Rankings