The Dolphins have won at least nine games in each of the last two years but their over/under at SI Sportsbook for the upcoming season is just 8.5 wins.
The Dolphins hold the distinct honor of being the only NFL team to finish above .500 the last two seasons and not have a postseason appearance to show for it.
There is hope Miami can end its five-year playoff drought after making yet another coaching change and acquiring one of the top receivers to set up third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for success by surrounding him with even more talent.
Mike McDaniel, the former 49ers offensive coordinator, was tapped to lead the Dolphins after Brian Flores was fired. The early days of McDaniel’s head coaching career will be defined by Miami’s decision to ship off loads of draft capital to Kansas City to acquire perennial Pro Bowl receiver Tyreek Hill.
AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: Bills | Patriots
Somewhat surprisingly, the Dolphins’ win total projection dropped slightly from where it was prior to the 2021 season. Miami’s over/under is set at 8.5, tied with the Patriots for the second-highest in the AFC East behind the Super Bowl-favorite Bills.
Can the Dolphins deliver on the over? Or will they go under and miss the playoffs for a sixth straight season?
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Miami Dolphins Over/Under: 8.5 - O (-133) | U (-105)
2021-22 record: 9-8; Third AFC East; Missed playoffs
AFC East future odds: +400 (Tied-second)
AFC future odds: +1800 (Tied-ninth)
Super Bowl future Odds: +3300 (Tied-16th)
Key additions: WR Tyreek Hill, OL Terron Armstead, RB Chase Edmonds
Key losses: WR DeVante Parker, RB Duke Johnson, OL Jesse Davis
All Dolphins offseason grade: A
“Considering the Dolphins were able to upgrade practically everywhere on offense and keep intact a pretty good defense, it’s difficult to pick at anything they did in the offseason. The acquisitions of Hill and Armstead were the headline grabbers, for sure, but Bridgewater is a significant upgrade over Brissett as the backup quarterback. The trio of Mostert, Edmonds and Michel is more dynamic than what the Dolphins had last year, and Wilson complements the addition of Hill.” —Alain Poupart
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SCHEDULE
Week 1: Patriots
Week 2: At Ravens
Week 3: Bills
Week 4: At Bengals
Week 5: At Jets
Week 6: Vikings
Week 7: Steelers
Week 8: At Lions
Week 9: At Bears
Week 10: Browns
Week 11: BYE
Week 12: Texans
Week 13: At 49ers
Week 14: At Chargers
Week 15: At Bills
Week 16: Packers
Week 17: At Patriots
Week 18: Jets
I was surprised to see the Dolphins’ win total projection decline from where it was ahead of last season despite the upgrades it made at key offensive positions.
Miami retained its defensive anchors, which was middle of the pack in opposing yardage and points a season ago. Where it lagged behind the rest of the league was in moving the ball and scoring and those deficiencies should be much improved in 2022.
Let’s see if there’s a path to nine wins on the Dolphins’ schedule, which includes two absolutely brutal stretches against Super Bowl contenders.
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Miami went 4-2 against an AFC East that produced two playoff teams a season ago. That included a sweep of the Patriots and Jets and a pair of blowout losses to the Bills.
The Dolphins should take care of an improved New York team in both meetings once again. Miami gave New England a tough time for years even before Tom Brady left, culminating in last season’s sweep. Realistically, that result could very well repeat but a split is a conservative estimate for how those games play out with 16 weeks between them. And Buffalo figures to take both games against the Dolphins again in 2022 after outscoring them 61-11 in their two meetings in 2021.
That gets Miami to 3-3 and potentially 4-2.
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Now, for the NFC opponents.
The AFC East draws the NFC North this season, which is a good omen for the Dolphins’ chances of scoring a few extra wins in their push to return to the playoffs.
First up is a home date with the Vikings in Week 6. Under new leadership, the Vikings figure to be an improved team in 2022, but let’s give Miami the edge.
The Dolphins face two of the weaker teams in not only the NFC North, but the league as a whole, on the road. Bouts against the lowly Bears and Lions in back-to-back weeks should be relatively easy tallies in the win column.
Then, there’s the Week 16 game against the Packers and back-to-back reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers. Even in Miami, it’s advantage Green Bay.
Miami’s other NFC opponent is the 49ers.
Given that the game is in San Francisco late in the season, second-year quarterback Trey Lance should have ample time to adjust by that point, so let’s call that a win for Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers against his former offensive coordinator.
So, the Dolphins are in the range of six, maybe seven wins with six games against non-division AFC opponents remaining.
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They draw the AFC North with early-season games against the Ravens and Bengals on the road and home games against the Steelers and Browns later in the year. Splitting against what might be the second-toughest division in football would be ideal for Miami, but a 1-3 finish with a win against Pittsburgh or Cleveland (depending on how a possible Deshaun Watson suspension plays out) isn’t out of the question.
That leaves a home game against the Texans—an easy win—and a road game against the Chargers, who will always be a tough out with Justin Herbert under center. A victory against Houston and a loss in Los Angeles puts the Dolphins squarely in the range of 8 wins on the low end and 10 on the high end.
If Miami fails to deliver, its schedule in September and December will be to blame. The Dolphins open the season against the Patriots and then face the Ravens, Bills and Bengals that month. And near the end of the season they have three straight road games against the 49ers, Chargers and Bills before hosting the Packers.
No matter what you think of the Patriots, the other seven teams are either legitimate contenders this season or have recent postseason success to point at.
The schedule is more difficult than what the Dolphins faced last season but given the promise of McDaniel calling plays, the momentum of a 7-1 finish to the 2021 campaign and an anticipated Year 3 leap from Tagovailoa with the best receiving corps and offensive line of his career, the Dolphins should get to nine wins for the third straight season.
BET: Over 8.5 wins (-133)
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