Duke vs. Texas Tech Odds, Bets, and Picks for Sweet 16 matchup

Mar 23, 2022

Duke is a one-point underdog for their Sweet 16 matchup against Texas Tech on Thursday.

Men's Sweet 16: No. 2 Duke vs. No. 3 Texas Tech

Thursday could be the final game of Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski’s legendary career. Standing in the way of the No. 2 Blue Devils and the Elite Eight is No. 3 Texas Tech, coached by Mark Adams, in his first year at the helm of the program.

This matchup has it all: great offense versus great defense, star freshmen versus experienced upperclassmen and the ACC vs. Big 12, the two conferences putting together the best tournament performances.

I broke down how each team got here and Matt Ehalt joined me to analyze this matchup and bet the game with the smallest spread in the Sweet 16.

No. 3 Texas Tech (27-9) vs. No. 2 Duke (30-6 )

Time: 9:39 p.m. ET | CBS
Spread: Duke +1 (-118) | Texas Tech -1 (-110)
Moneyline: Duke (-105) | Texas Tech (-118)
Over/Under: Under 137 (-110) | Over 137 (-118)

Texas Tech’s Path

The Red Raiders, with the top-ranked defense, have momentum heading into their matchup with the Blue Devils. Texas Tech showed its offensive chops, albeit against a lesser opponent, in the first round. It beat up on No. 14 Montana State in a 97-62 win. Every single starter for TTU scored in double figures and the team shot better than 60% from the field and from deep. No. 11 Notre Dame gave the Red Raiders more problems, but they overcame a poor shooting night in a gritty 59-53 win.

Duke’s Path

Coach K’s final NCAA tournament began with a convincing win against No. 15 Cal State Fullerton. Duke didn’t bury the Titans and provided a bad beat, but they defeated them soundly enough and set up a Krzyzewski-Izzo showdown in the Round of 32. The Blue Devils staved off an upset bid by No. 7 Michigan State and scored an 85-76 win to advance. Now, Duke finds itself in a rare spot as an underdog.

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Kyle Wood’s Bet: Texas Tech -1

Per KenPom , these teams are flip-flopped offensively and defensively. Texas Tech has the No. 46 offense and Duke has the No. 42 defense. And defensively, the Red Raiders have the No. 1 unit and the Blue Devils boast the No. 4 offense. I’m betting on the superior defense here and the more-experienced roster that competed in a much-tougher conference this season. Duke is the better offense in all facets, but Texas Tech has shown against some of the top teams in the country (Baylor, Kansas) it can go shot for shot or slow things down and win either way.

Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Duke +1

I hate this bet. I do. I just don’t like this game and its spread.

I just don’t see Coach K’s last tournament ending in the Sweet 16.

The thing I keep going back to is what Duke showed in the final 5:10 of Sunday’s win over Michigan State after falling behind by five points. This Duke team had developed a bit of a soft jaw down the stretch and struggled defensively.

That changed in the final five-plus minutes on Sunday. Duke closed the game on a 20-6 run to beat the Spartans and—just as important—cover.

Yes, Texas Tech’s defense is elite, perhaps the best in the nation and Duke’s defense is hardly that. Maybe I’m falling for recency bias. Maybe I’m falling for the Coach K tour narrative.

I just don’t see it ending here, especially after seeing how the Michigan State game ended. Plus, it helps that Duke will have the best player on the court. I also believe Texas Tech’s offense may not be good enough to fully expose Duke’s defense the way others have.

The referees could play a huge role in this game too. If the referees give Coach K the “Duke whistle” in his final tournament, that could be problematic for Texas Tech. If the Red Raiders can play hard, physical defense, Duke could be in for a rough day.

Let’s just say we expect a good whistle for Duke.