With uncertainty about Calvin Ridley's future, fantasy managers might get him on the cheap.
The season never really ends in dynasty, but your league’s championship likely was decided in Week 17. I hope it went well for you. I thought we’d take a look back at my calls this season and see where we stand with them and grade them. Evaluating and grading myself, sounds like a rigged game, but I’ll try to do so honestly. I’ll be breaking up these evaluations into weekly chunks: Weeks 6-9, 10-13 and 14-17. (Please note that I didn’t start writing this article series until Week 6.)
Let’s ring the dynasty stock watch opening bell:
Week 6
- QB Jalen Hurts (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: SELL)
- WR Allen Robinson (Win-Now: BUY, Rebuild: SELL)
- WR Quez Watkins (Win-Now: BUY, Rebuild: BUY)
- TE Dawson Knox (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: SELL)
Knox, to me, is still a hold if you’ve got a good team but I feel his rebuild value has leveled out so he’s a hold there as well. I only wanted to sell him because I felt he was a touch overvalued at that moment. With late-season surges from guys like Pat Freiermuth or even Dalton Schultz, Knox likely fits squarely in that third tier of TEs and likely below guys like T.J. Hockenson and maybe even Noah Fant.
Robinson was supposed to be a win-now buy because I was hoping for a miracle turnaround that never came. How the mighty have fallen.
Watkins is still a deep roster hold for me. I love his explosion, yet he’s still relying on Hurts. This is the catch-22 with the Eagles QB. DeVonta Smith hasn’t wowed me, but he certainly had a very good rookie year. Dallas Goedert had a decent year, but could’ve been better I suppose. Hurts is getting it done individually, but he’s not really elevating anyone’s play in this offense. I can appreciate what he’s doing, but I just don’t believe he’s got the chops to play quarterback well and efficiently at a high level.
My 2022 Evaluation:
- Hurts: SELL/SELL (B)
- Robinson: SELL/SELL (D)
- Watkins: BUY/BUY (C+)
- Knox: HOLD/HOLD (B)
Week 7
- QB Tua Tagovailoa (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: BUY, Superflex: BUY)
- RB Christian McCaffrey (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: SELL)
- WR Tee Higgins (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: BUY)
- WR Brandon Aiyuk (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: BUY)
Your boy killed this one, give it up.
Higgins and Aiyuk were two sides of the same coin. Ja’Marr Chase was red-hot and people were waffling between Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Deebo Samuel was also red-hot and Aiyuk basically disappeared. Both Aiyuk and Higgins proved last year they are legit; they’re going to get theirs. Maybe some felt Aiyuk was going to be the No. 1 over Samuel, but there’s enough offense to go around—and the same can be said for the Bengals offense. Both players were cratered in value at this point and have seen dramatic rises in their evaluations.
Tagovailoa is still a very nuanced quarterback and while he will likely never dominate, I am still very confident he’ll have a long career. His value is more inflated in superflex but I’d be happy to have him as a reliable QB2 on any roster. I believe most of the fantasy community is still undervaluing him but I can’t pretend he has a higher ceiling than, say, the aforementioned Hurts.
McCaffrey is why they pay me the big bucks. No, really! At this point, McCaffrey was dinged up again and likely out a couple games. His value was already on the decline but it stabilized once it was clear he was coming back for Week 9. Then he got hurt again, and his value plummeted again. I could understand if you viewed CMC as a buy right now, but at this price range, you have far more to lose than gain if his value tanks after yet another injury. He’s still the caliber of player who’s going to command an early 2022 first and something extra to get a deal done. I can’t justify that price tag.
My 2022 Evaluation:
- Tagovailoa: HOLD/HOLD/HOLD (B)
- McCaffrey: SELL/SELL (A+)
- Higgins: HOLD/HOLD (A)
- Aiyuk: HOLD/HOLD (A)
Week 8
- QB Justin Fields (Win-Now: SELL, Rebuild: SELL, Superflex: SELL)
- QB Zach Wilson (Win-Now: SELL, Rebuild: SELL, Superflex: SELL)
- RB Khalil Herbert (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: PRICE CHECK)
- WR Kalif Raymond (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: BUY)
- 2022 1.01 Rookie Pick (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: BUY)
I took a lot of crap on Reddit for this one for my outlook on Fields and Wilson. Fields, I guess you can make the case for him, but the Bears offense is still ugly and inefficient. I think there’s been a growing period by both the coaching staff, the play-calling and Fields as they learn how to dance together. Wilson, I’m just not seeing it still. The guy has a Justin Herbert arm, but just no semblance of instincts and footwork. And oh by the way, the Jets are doing him no favors. If you want either of these guys right now, you will be overpaying because the public still is overvaluing them.
Herbert looked like something special in Week 7 but I was surprised to see David Montgomery so comfortably take back such a large chunk of the offensive responsibilities. I was feeling something of a RB controversy was in order, but Herbert has only seen more than 20% of the offensive snaps twice since Week 8, the last time he was a fill-in for Montgomery. His value remains high but I think we may be viewing him with rose-colored glasses because it’s clear the Bears are content to keep him on the sidelines. He’s a great handcuff, though.
Raymond was coming off a big week and while I still don’t mind him as a back-end flier on your bench, this offense is clearly going to be led by Amon-Ra St. Brown and, of course, D’Andre Swift. At best, Raymond is still well behind T.J. Hockenson, making the speedy receiver at best the fourth-best weapon on an underwhelming team. Given his already low value, he’s likely not tradeable, so I have to break out my cut grade.
The 2022 1.01 has creeped up a tiny bit in value but I was hoping we would ascertain a more clear picture on who was the top fantasy pick. I still don’t believe there is a clear-cut option so the pick’s value remains flat. I don’t believe we’ll see this hold outlook pay off until the combine, when hopefully someone emerges.
My 2022 Evaluation:
- Fields: SELL/SELL/HOLD (B)
- Wilson: SELL/SELL/SELL (B)
- Herbert: HOLD/HOLD (C)
- Raymond: CUT/CUT (D-)
- 2022 1.01: HOLD/HOLD (B)
Week 9
- QB Mike White (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: HOLD, Superflex: HOLD)
- RB Michael Carter (Win-Now: SELL, Rebuild: SELL, Superflex: SELL)
- WR Calvin Ridley (Win-Now: HOLD, Rebuild: BUY)
Okay, sometimes you miss layups. But my point with White is that if you have him, hold him. If you don’t, don’t buy. His value at this peak probably wasn’t going to merit much of anything in a trade, anyway. I suppose selling would’ve more clearly stated my intent, but I’ll take the knock on this one. I was just trying to say that he was better than nothing and I was right for about 72 hours.
I will take the “L” again here because we were on the heels of Khalil Herbert’s so-called breakout the previous week and Carter followed it up. I think Carter is clearly the guy for the Jets now, while Herbert has been relegated. From a player talent evaluation perspective, my evaluation was justified, but Carter’s situation and place on the depth chart has wildly swung in Carter’s favor, which accounts for far more for many fantasy managers. Trading for running backs is almost always a bad idea in my opinion given their short careers, high peaks and low valley valuations.
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I used the opportunity to talk about Ridley to offer some comforting words to those who seek self-care in the face of mental health concerns. It wasn’t so much about the evaluation, although I felt at the time it was best to hold. Right now, based on nothing, it just feels like Ridley is done with football. I don’t know where your gut is at, but I feel like we’d have heard something by now. A check-in so to speak. There is no timeline for a return and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Falcons trade him. I hope he’s well and I hope Atlanta can find a solution to what’s best for both his and their interest. Because of the steep uncertainty surrounding him, I believe this is a buying opportunity. The fog of apprehension for many owners has to be very thick, so I believe it’s worth checking in to kick the tires on a trade opportunity.
My 2022 Evaluation:
- White: CUT/CUT/CUT (D-)
- Carter: HOLD/HOLD (B-)
- Ridley: BUY/BUY (B)
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