These teams look unlikely to be headed for an early NCAA tournament upset.
Upsets are always a major theme across the first weekend of March Madness, when after days of people debating which lower-seeded programs can pull them off, it's finally time for those teams to prove it on the court. But we're not here to talk about the Cinderellas in this edition of Morning Madness; instead, we're here to talk about the men's teams you should trust in the first round.
While we do live in a post-UMBC-beating-Virginia world, we're not going to take the easy way out and include No. 1 seeds here. However, here's eight others that we feel confident telling you to pencil in...
No. 2 Alabama over No. 15 Iona: Rick Pitino’s Gaels have a major turnover problem, and that plays right into the hands of how the Tide’s defense loves to operate.
No. 2 Houston over No. 15 Cleveland State: If you’re eying the Cougars for a huge first-round upset because they lack the backing of a Power 6 conference, don’t. Houston’s stingy defense will make life very difficult for the Vikings, who aren’t much of a threat to get hot from deep.
No. 3 Arkansas over No. 14 Colgate: The Raiders shouldn’t be slept on, especially given that they play at the same fast pace as the Razorbacks and shoot better from three (40%) than all but two teams nationally. But Colgate has played a total of five different opponents (yes, really) this season, and it’s a big step up to a team that recently won 12 straight against SEC teams.
No. 4 Purdue over No. 13 North Texas: The Boilermakers have been quietly playing well for the majority of 2021, and have a go-to player in the paint (Trevion Williams) who can get the job done in what looks destined to be a low-scoring, defense-first affair.
No. 4 Florida State over No. 14 UNC Greensboro: I’m slightly concerned about the Spartans’ ability to generate turnovers against a giveaway-prone FSU offense, but UNC-G ranks 312th in three-point shooting and the Seminoles are tough to score on in the paint. It’s hard to see them scoring enough to keep up with a strong FSU offense.
No. 5 Tennessee over No. 12 Oregon State: The Vols are going to be arguably the best defense the Beavers have faced all season, and Oregon State’s own D doesn’t pose the test that would’ve been worrying for the sometimes offense-averse Tennessee.
No. 7 Oregon over No. 10 VCU: Dana Altman has an impressive recent NCAA tournament track record, and the Ducks have been generally strong since getting healthy. They’re also well-equipped to handle VCU’s pressure.
No. 8 UNC over No. 9 Wisconsin: Let’s live dangerously by including an 8/9 game as the last one. The Badgers have been headed in the wrong direction for weeks, despite their still-impressive metrics. Of chief concern is UNC’s No. 1 offensive rebounding rate and plethora of big men they can throw at Nate Reuvers and Micah Potter, which will likely force Wisconsin to rely on its streaky perimeter offense. —Molly Geary
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ICYMI
The women's NCAA tournament field was revealed Monday night, and we've got a full bracket breakdown. (By Emma Baccellieri and Elizabeth Swinton)
After losing yet another close friend, Michigan coach Juwan Howard could really use a win. (By Michael Rosenberg)
O.K., now it's time to talk Cinderellas. Specifically, which men's teams may bust your bracket if you're not careful. (By Kevin Sweeney)
Wagering on the NCAA men's tournament is a vastly different experience than simply filling out a bracket. (By Roy Larking)
Best Thing We Saw
Zion is not here for a March Madness without Duke.
Pick 'Em: Men's and Women's
SI’s Kevin Sweeney makes his picks for the men’s South Region:
No. 1 Baylor over No. 16 Hartford: The Hawks soared through the America East tournament, but don’t overthink this one.
No. 8 North Carolina over No. 9 Wisconsin: UNC’s strong interior will pound the Badgers on the boards, earning it a second-round matchup with Baylor.
No. 12 Winthrop over No. 5 Villanova: The wounded Wildcats aren’t as good as their seed without Collin Gillespie and potentially Justin Moore. Winthrop is deep, athletic and well-coached under Pat Kelsey.
No. 4 Purdue over No. 13 North Texas: Both teams are willing to play slow and grind out possessions, but Purdue’s size up front is just too much for the Mean Green.
No. 11 Utah State over No. 6 Texas Tech: This one could go either way, but if Utah State can hit some threes and give Neemias Queta space to operate, the Aggies can pull the upset.
No. 3 Arkansas over No. 14 Colgate: In the end, Arkansas athleticism wins out, but not before Colgate’s knocks down some threes to make it interesting in a fast-paced game.
No. 7 Florida over No. 10 Virginia Tech: Hard to trust the Hokies here, who’ve played just three games since Feb. 6. Gators win the Kerry Blackshear Bowl.
No. 2 Ohio State over No. 15 Oral Roberts: Oral Roberts has plenty of firepower and could make this one a shootout, but OSU is too good and too battle-tested to go down in the first round.
SI’s Molly Geary makes her picks for the women’s Alamo Region:
No. 1 Stanford over No. 16 Utah Valley: The tournament's top-seeded Cardinal should easily overpower the Wolverines.
No. 8 Oklahoma State over No. 9 Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons are dancing for the first time since 1988, but block-machine Natasha Mack and the Cowgirls will end the party early.
No. 5 Missouri State over No. 12 UC Davis: The Bears boast one of the nation's best defenses and should be able to shut down the Aggies.
No. 4 Arkansas over No. 13 Wright State: With Chelsea Dungee leading the way, the Razorbacks' offense is a handful; the Raiders lack the firepower to keep up.
No. 11 South Dakota over No. 6 Oregon: The Ducks have lost five of their last six, and the Coyotes, led by 6' 3" center Hannah Sjerven, are a balanced team that could be ripe to pull off the upset.
No. 3 Georgia over No. 14 Drexel: One of several stout defensive teams in this region, the Lady Bulldogs are coming off a strong SEC tournament.
No. 7 Northwestern over No. 10 UCF: This looks destined to be a defensive slugfest, but the battle-tested Wildcats have the edge.
No. 2 Louisville over No. 15 Marist: The Red Foxes hold opponents to just 50.0 points per game and 34.0% shooting, but Dana Evans and the Cardinals are a whole different ballgame.
Crystal Ball
The 4–5 pod in the men's West Region gives us stellar showings from two mid-major guards, with UC Santa Barbara’s JaQuori McLaughlin and Ohio’s Jason Preston each leading their teams to first-round upsets, and later meeting head-to-head for a berth in the Sweet 16. —Jeremy Woo
At the Buzzer
Via PointsBet Sportsbook, these are the largest in-season bets to win the men's championship on teams that made the Big Dance. Spare a moment for the person who placed a $10,000 in-season bet on Creighton, which is now down to 50/1 odds to win the men's title and would almost certainly have to get through Gonzaga just to get past the Sweet 16.
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