A best bet for Thursday’s NFC South battle between the Falcons and Panthers. The Falcons are slight road favorites.
Thursday Night Football kicks off Week 10 with Marcus Mariota and the Falcons traveling to Bank of America Stadium for an NFC South battle versus the Panthers.
The Panthers are 2-3 straight-up (SU) and 2-3 against the spread (ATS) at home this season but have surprised bettors and oddsmakers by posting a 2-1 ATS mark since trading star running back Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers.
Atlanta started the season as the darling team for underdog bettors by posting a perfect 6-0 ATS mark but has now lost three straight games against the number.
The Falcons beat the Panthers, 37-34, in overtime two weeks ago and have won eight of the last ten meetings (8-2 SU) against their division rival. Over that span, Atlanta has covered the spread at a 70% clip (7-3 ATS).
Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers Odds
- Spread: Atlanta -2.5 (-118) | Carolina +2.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: ATL (-150) | CAR (+125)
- Total: 42.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
- Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: ATL 74% | CAR 36%
- Game Info: Nov. 10, 2022 | 8:20 p.m. ET | Amazon Prime
Falcons Straight-Up Record: 4-5
Falcons Against The Spread Record: 6-3
Panthers Straight-Up Record: 2-7
Panthers Against The Spread Record: 3-6
Bet on Panthers-Falcons at SI Sportsbook
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
The line has ticked up since opening with Atlanta as a one-point road favorite over Carolina at SI Sportsbook to a line now displaying the Falcons with a 2.5-point demand. The game total, which opened at 40.5, has risen to 42.5.
Carolina has announced it will stick with PJ Walker under center for the fifth straight game despite being benching him last week for Baker Mayfield against the Bengals. Walker is poised for a bounce-back effort with an extremely favorable matchup against the NFL’s 32nd-ranked defense surrendering the most passing yards (300) per game of any club. Walker threw for a career-best 317 yards and a touchdown in Week 8 against the Falcons, while adding 20 yards on the ground.
D’Onta Foreman had his string of consecutive 100-plus yard performances snapped last week and will likely have backfield teammate Chuba Hubbard (ankle) return to help shoulder the load. Two weeks ago, Foreman ran for 118 yards and three touchdowns against the Falcons’ eight-ranked rushing defense that has only surrendered eight rushing touchdowns to running backs.
On the flip side, Atlanta has rushed for the fourth-most rushing yards (162.9) per game despite not possessing an elite RB1 in the backfield. The Falcons find a favorable matchup against a Panthers’ run defense that is surrendering the fifth-most rushing yards per game (139.3) to opponents.
Mariotta threw for season-highs in yards (253) and touchdowns (three) in the first matchup, while adding 43 yards on the ground.
Respected money in Vegas believes that these two division rivals, who just combined for 71 points in Week 8, could be hindered to repeat that output in Week 10 due to high winds and rain in the forecast. Atlanta has the better rushing attack and will ground out a season sweep over the Panthers.
BET: Atlanta -1.5 (-118)
Trends:
- Atlanta is 3-1-1 ATS over its last five road games
- The road team is 5-0 ATS over the last five meetings between these foes
- Atlanta is 0-3 ATS over its last three games
- Carolina is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS over its last six games
- Atlanta is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings versus Carolina
***
2022 SI Betting Thursday Night Football: 16-18-1+ Props +0.55 U
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 25-20 ATS + Props +5.75 U
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 8-7-1 ATS + Prop Wagers +4.00 U
2021 SI Betting NFL: 53-44-1 ATS + Props +14.22 U
2020 SI Betting NFL: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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